Dr HA Hellyer

About to go on BBC to discuss Syria

It would be a good idea not to take pointers on Syria from people who argued Assad was 'defending civilisation'

European, Arab, and all international political figures and parties that were clear in their opposition to Assad should use that capital now to engage with the authorities in Damascus, and help Syrians forge ahead. Not lead them, but help and assist.

Hello Bluesky. I'm new here, and probably doing this wrong, and frankly still spending a lot more time at the 'other place'. But I have been reliably informed this is a much better venue to discuss! Please forgive me as I try to get my bearings.

HTS will much to deal with; other armed groups; regime remnants; the Kurdish question; Syrians writ large; and the diaspora that will return is going to be an opportunity for HTS to either change for the better, or face yet more obstacles.

This is one of the points that many are missing as they voice their concerns about Syria's future. The potential of so much of the diaspora with regards to positive consequences on Syria is tremendous. Syrians won't be naive - but they will be resourceful in facing challenges.

Fear and uncertainty in Golan Heights as Israeli troops drive deeper into Syria On the high rocky plateau, the fall of Bashar al-Assad has sown complicated and contradictory emotions

"Fear and uncertainty in Golan Heights as Israeli troops drive deeper into Syria" - Peter Beaumont for the Guardian - includes my thoughts https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/11/golan-heights-israeli-troops-syria-assad

On a personal note. To all my Syrian friends: may God bless Syria, and its noble people, and protect you always from all threats. تحيا سوريا وشعبها العظيم

The opportunity; the potential; the very possibility for positive change is there, in a way that has been absent from Syria for so long. There will be many looking to disrupt that, from within and without, so the efforts to realise that potential need to scale up immediately.

Going forward there will be many challenges. Things will be messy. But at some point, this was always going to erupt, and rather than engage in cynical (and frankly insulting to Syrians) determinism over what must happen, outsiders should do what they can to help.

Yes, there are good reasons to be cautious. But the idea that things could have stayed the same indefinitely is irrational and absurd. Blame Assad for that - he's most responsible.

Any constructive, durable, sustainable future for Syria simply could not include Assad. That wasn't a choice Syrians made - it was a choice *he* made. He could have easily taken different routes multiple times since 2011. He chose the worst one - and has himself to blame.

Bashar wasn't a source of stability; but a source, and the main source, of instability. Indeed, his regime and its backers were responsible for about 90 percent of the death toll in Syria. Even beyond the human cost, his regime was destabilising.

There is an overriding reality that too many are missing in the reportage and analysis internationally, at least from those who haven't followed Syria. As much as people might want to insist that Bashar was a pillar of stability, so better than anything else, this was false.

There are understandable reasons to be cautious about what happens in Syria. It is telling that a decade ago, the feeling would have been an untempered exhilaration, considering the record of the Assas regime. Today, while the exhilaration is there, there is also soberness. But:

Bashar al-Assad reported to have fled Syria as rebels say they have captured Damascus Celebrations on streets of Syrian cities as as Assad regime appears to have fallen

“Just a few months ago all of us were operating under the assumption that this day would never come. Every time I say to myself the words the Assad regime has fallen, I still can’t really believe it.”

My piece for @theguardian.com on a momentous day.

“I think we should dare to hope,” says @drhahellyer.bsky.social on AJE