Stephen Pomper

My latest, in which I was cringe and went Gen Z:

China’s strategy? Let Trump cook.

"I am not sure if any other incumbent power in history has so rapidly and systematically attacked its own principal sources of competitive advantage,” Ali Wyne @crisisgroup.org told me.

Free link: wapo.st/4m1fxNw

At Least a Dozen Killed as Fighting Erupts Along Cambodia-Thailand Border | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Matt Wheeler tracks the sudden escalation in fighting after months of plummeting relations between the two states

‘Prospects for de-escalation are complicated by a messy feud between #Cambodia and #Thailand’s former prime ministers.’

Our expert tracks the sudden escalation in fighting after months of plummeting relations between the two states.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-e...

Open the Gates to Save a Starving Gaza | International Crisis Group As ceasefire talks drag on, Gaza is tipping from mass starvation toward mass death. Israel must allow assistance in immediately. But that step alone will not save the strip’s depleted population. Gaza...

Israel is starving Gaza, tipping the strip from mass starvation towards mass death.

The lack of a ceasefire provides no excuse for this policy. War is no licence to starve.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal Offer Ukraine? | Crisis Group This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Stephen Pomper about Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine, Kyiv’s and Europe’s response, the U.S.-Ukrain...

On @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, @stevepomper.bsky.social & I join Richard Atwood to talk Ukraine's negotiations with Americans, American negotiations with Russians, European leverage, & all the rest of it.

Trump’s Turbulent First 100 Days: Views from Around the Globe | Crisis Group Since taking office in late January, the second Trump administration has moved to upend a decades-old domestic and international order. Crisis Group takes stock of what the White House has done and ho...

The first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will go down in history.

His administration has attacked its first three-plus months in office with such a ferocious commitment to rewiring the status quo. 

www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Trump’s Turbulent First 100 Days: Views from Around the Globe | Crisis Group Since taking office in late January, the second Trump administration has moved to upend a decades-old domestic and international order. Crisis Group takes stock of what the White House has done and ho...

Check out @CrisisGroup’s region by region breakdown of how Trump’s first 100 days were seen around the world …

www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Bending the Guardrails: U.S. War Powers after 7 October | Crisis Group Amid the Gaza war, the Biden administration has resorted to military force without asking Congress, further corroding the U.S. constitution’s checks and balances in this domain. Job one is a ceasefire...

Given SignalGate 2.0, reposting our @crisisgroup.org report on how the US came to be fighting the Houthis—without congressional authorization.

Based on my recent conversations with US officials, seems Trump admin is using the same legal arguments as Biden team.

www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

Ukraine’s Most Plausible Security Guarantee Will Not Come from the U.S. | Crisis Group The Trump administration rules out security guarantees for Ukraine – as did the Biden administration. Europeans and Ukrainians need to give up hope that this stance might change. Efforts to align Kyiv...

If there's one point of consistency on Ukraine between the Biden & Trump administrations, it's the rejection of US security guarantees for Kyiv. New @crisisgroup.org statement argues Ukraine and its European backers should accept this reality & ensure Kyiv can defend itself, now and into the future.

In @justsecurity.org ahead of #IWD2025 I highlight how the Mexico City policy (also known as the global gag rule) impacts women & girls in conflict even beyond the damage done by recent aid cuts. Past experience shows that this restriction reduces access to essential health care.

U.S. and Russia Start Ukraine Talks, Transatlantic Ties Unravel | Crisis Group This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Stephen Pomper about an extraordinary week or so of U.S. diplomacy in Europe, Ukraine talks and the future of the...

What’s that you said?!? Bust up, shakedown, divorce? 🤔

🎧 to @richardatwood.bsky.social @olyaoliker.bsky.social @stevepomper.bsky.social on a stunning showdown in transatlantic relations & Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at Munich.

www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

U.S. and Russia Start Ukraine Talks, Transatlantic Ties Unravel | Crisis Group This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Stephen Pomper about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic rel...

🎧 NEW EPISODE | Hold Your Fire!

This week, Richard Atwood is joined by @olyaoliker.bsky.social and @stevepomper.bsky.social to discuss recent talks between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations.

www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

U.S. and Russia Start Ukraine Talks, Transatlantic Ties Unravel | Crisis Group This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker and Stephen Pomper about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic rel...

After yet another tumultuous week, @stevepomper.bsky.social & I talked to Richard Atwood about what Washington's radical new approach to Ukraine & Europe more broadly might mean for the Russo-Ukrainian war & continental security on the @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast.

Much talk these days about Ukraine cease-fire, what sorts of deals Trump can make with Putin over everyone's heads, what is & isn't on the table, including peacekeepers, & what Ukraine's European backers should do. A lot of this talk seems a bit muddled? Lotta carts before horses? Hence, a 🧵 1/14

Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future | Crisis Group What happens with the war in Ukraine matters beyond its borders, as events there will shape the larger standoff between Russia and the West. The U.S. and European powers can manage the risks of a chan...

With war in Ukraine raging on & Donald Trump’s second term as president offering multiple surprises daily, our new @CrisisGroup report on the future of European security predicts a continuing bumpy ride, explains why, & offers some thoughts on how, perhaps to smooth it. Somewhat. A 🧵 1/19

For all the question marks surrounding the Gaza deal, the opportunity it presents is too important to let go. The parties that threw their weight behind getting it done now need to turn their attention to making it stick, for the sake of Israelis & Palestinians.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

We @crisisgroup.org have just published our view on the strengths and weaknesses of the Gaza ceasefire deal in a Q&A format. Take a gander.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Our assessments of the Gaza ceasefire. A limited deal is of course welcome as a first step, but for the deal to match expectations many important details will need to be agreed upon, and will likely require outside engagement, encouragement, and pressure.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Questions for Senators (and Journalists) to ask Secretary of State Nominee Marco Rubio Experts suggest questions for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's confirmation hearing for Trump's pick, a member from their own ranks.

Confirmation hearing for #SecretaryOfState nominee Sen. Marco Rubio before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is set for Wednesday at 10 am US ET

Top experts suggest questions that Senators (and journalists) should ask:
www.justsecurity.org/106317/quest...

Thanks to @justsecurity.org for including questions from me and @crisisgroup.org colleague @bcfinucane.bsky.social in this list for Sen. Marco Rubio's #SecretaryofState confirmation hearing.

NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025

In collaboration w/ @foreignpolicy.com

📌 Read more:
www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

New from @crisisgroup.org: A round-up of regional and international responses to events in Syria, including a few paras on the view from the UNSC.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Big news in the sanctions world.

Today, the UNSC indefinitely extended the humanitarian carveout of the Al Qaeda/ISIL sanctions regime.

What does this mean, & why is it so important? A quick 🧵.

Does America Still Need Egypt? When war broke out in Gaza, Biden reconciled with Sisi—but Trump’s calculus might differ.

From last week, my essay on U.S.-Egypt relations, which are broadly improved on a host of pressing diplomatic matters despite the war in Gaza. Cooperation welcome, but shouldn't obscure continuing political and economic deficiencies of Egypt's governing model.
www.foreignaffairs.com/egypt/does-a...

Supporters of former Bolivian President Evo Morales block a road linking Cochabamba with La Paz, near the village of Khora, 20 km from Cochabamba, Bolivia, on October 28, 2024. Former Bolivian president Evo Morales is being investigated for rape, human trafficking and human smuggling over his alleged sexual relationship with a 15-year-old member of his political youth guard in 2015. Supporters of Morales have protested by blocking major roads throughout the country for two weeks. Morales said gunmen tried to kill him Sunday in a hail of bullets, an attack he blamed on the current president. AIZAR RALDES / AFP

A standoff between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales has plunged Bolivia into turmoil, aggravating economic grievances and fuelling social unrest.

🧵 to explain what’s happening

🔴 LIVE NOW | Lebanon-Israel ceasefire: What's at stake?

youtube.com/live/xXVIudm...

NEW STATEMENT | Georgia’s Ruling Party Should Call Off Its Crackdown on Dissent

Georgia’s decision to suspend its bid to join the EU has sparked nationwide protests. Tbilisi must end its crackdown and engage with the opposition to chart a path forward.

www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

@crisisgroup.org @mairavz.bsky.social & her colleagues on the chances that the parties will honour the ceasefire including the possibility that Hizbollah and Israel will seek to work out new “rules of the game” under which low-intensity exchanges of fire persist.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

NEW REPORT | Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco

Since 2021, Algeria and Morocco have been embroiled in a diplomatic crisis, with incidents in Western Sahara and Rabat’s relations with Israel heightening the risk of confrontation.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Algeria & Morocco have been embroiled in diplomatic crises since 2021. Mutual self-restraint & U.S. pressure help contain tensions, but there’s escalatory pressure too: bilateral arms race, surge of youth militancy in Western Sahara’s pro-independence Polisario Front & change in DC.

bit.ly/4g9VOYV

"We are in the middle of a very violent decade."

@comfortero.bsky.social in @economist.com.

www.economist.com/the-world-ah...