Ewan Carr

The Risks of Risk Assessment: Causal Blind Spots When Using Prediction Models for Treatment Decisions | Annals of Internal Medicine Clinicians increasingly rely on prediction models to guide treatment choices. Most prediction models, however, are developed using observational data that include some patients who have already receiv...

New paper in @annalsofim.bsky.social

"50 ways to misinterpret clinical prediction models for treatment decisions”

--> Published version: www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/...

--> Open access version: arxiv.org/pdf/2402.17366

Running a workshop tomorrow on reproducible workflows in R at the King's Open Research Summer School.

📽️ Slides: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r
👩‍💻 Practical: ewancarr.github.io/reproducible-r/practical

Mildly terrified that Git on Windows will be my downfall—but we'll see. 😅

#rstats #opensci

New blog article on Statistical Thinking: confidence limits for bootstrap overfitting-corrected predictive performance measures for regression models, useful for strong internal validations including confidence bands for debiased calibration curves: fharrell.com/post/bootcal #statistics #StatsSky

Talent Development Awards 2025-26 The Talent Development Awards are available to promote the acquisition and advancement of skills in relevant areas by UK-based researchers, promoting innovative research methods, be that through skill...

We are offering up to £10k for researchers to upgrade their skills - e.g. in AI/machine learning; or a language; or something else! Think about it over the summer and apply by early October
www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/tale...

A helpful framework for evaluating software dependencies:

Ubiquity
Stability
Depth
Ergonomics
Watertightness

RoSE's 2025 e-Conference Special Interest Group Talks: - Presenting the Yet Another Conceptual Understanding of Statistics Assessment (YACUSA) - Statistics across the Curriculum: Integrating Applied Analytics in to Large General Education Courses - Enhancing Statistics Learning Through Mindfulness

Do you teach statistics, or do you conduct research about teaching statistics? The RoSE e-Conference on July 31st has sessions for you! Join our Statistics Pedagogy special interest group talks by registering for free here: bit.ly/roseconferen... #StatsEd #statistics #conferences

Which Kind of Science Reform What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.

How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...

Parallel processing in purrr 1.1.0 The functional programming toolkit for R gains new capabilities for parallel processing and distributed computing using mirai.

#tidyverse purrr 1.1.0 is out - now with parallel processing!

Scale your #rstats map operations reliably and efficiently across multiple cores and even distributed systems.

Powered by the mirai framework, this unlocks new levels of performance.

Read more at:
www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/07...

{tinytable} is a dead simple, ultra-flexible, and dependency-free #Rstats 📦 to turn data frames into beautiful tables: html, word, pdf, latex, typst, markdown, etc.

v0.10.0 has cool new features and important bug fixes. Check out the detailed tutorials at:

vincentarelbundock.github.io/tinytable/

The Secret Rules of the Terminal, by Julia Evans - The cover illustration depicts three people doing arcane terminal magic in a temple with a smoking censer in the background. Each of the three people has curly brown hair and light brown skin. They are all wearing dresses, billowing cloaks, and utility belts with keyboard symbols on them. The one on the left holds a palette of paints and a brush. The one on the right has a staff with a $ symbol on it and a starfish at the top. The one in the centre has a sword and is reading from a book whose cover says “>_” and “./”, which rests on a lectern with a smiling snake wrapped around it.

delighted to announce that my new zine "The Secret Rules of the Terminal" is out today!!

You can get it for $12 USD here: wizardzines.com/zines/terminal

Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.” In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and d...

New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.

www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...

YYYY-MM-DD OR NOTHING AT ALL

Functional Programming Tools A complete and consistent functional programming toolkit for R.

Bleeding edge update for the #tidyverse purrr package with even more seamless #rstats parallel maps.

Introducing our shiniest new adverb: `in_parallel()`. Just wrap your function to take advantage of blazing fast parallel processing via mirai.

pak::pak("tidyverse/purrr")

purrr.tidyverse.org/dev/

Casual Inference: The Art of Clarity with Andrew Heiss | Season 6 Episode 6 Andrew Heiss is an assistant professor in the Department of Public Management and Policy at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University. Vincent’s “What is your estimand” s...

I'm on a podcast! I had a blast talking with @lucystats.bsky.social and @epiellie.bsky.social on @casualinfer.bsky.social! We cover all sorts of fun things: {marginaleffects}, defining estimands, fixed vs. random effects, & how to teach all this stats stuff in accessible ways #databs #EpiSky #rstats

A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- part 1: binary outcomes When developing a clinical prediction model, the sample size of the development dataset is a key consideration. Small sample sizes lead to greater concerns of overfitting, instability, poor performanc...

Just published a couple of pre-prints for those interested in sample size calculations for precise and fair individual-level predictions ... (not the end of the story, but a useful contribution we hope):

Binary outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293

Survival outcomes: arxiv.org/abs/2501.14482

Prediction under intervention: challenges and trade-offs | LSHTM Causality and prediction are often two separate activities. In particular, prediction can be done in a way that is agnostic to underlying knowledge, mechanism or causal structure. However, it is very

Join us on 10th June (online or in London @lshtm-dash.bsky.social ) to hear from Matthew Sperrin talk about his work on 'Prediction under intervention: challenges and trade-offs'.More details at www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...

This week saw the publication of SPIRIT 2025, a major update to the international SPIRIT Statement which provides guidance on what should be included in a trial protocol. 1/6
#MethodologyMonday #117

On the verge of declaring defeat with chatgpt in my asynchronous online dataviz class. Something changed this semester compared to past ones and SO MANY assignments are essentially 100% LLM output.

Multilevel Models: Practical Applications

Curious about multilevel modelling but not sure where to start?

Learn to recognise, build & interpret multilevel models using MLwiN or R, through real-world examples & hands-on practice.

Find out more: bit.ly/3Yj5I4f

#ESS2025

Casual Inference: From Model to Meaning with Vincent Arel-Bundock | Season 6 Episode 4 Vincent Arel-Bundock is a professor at the Université de Montréal, where he studies comparative and international political economy. Vincent's website: Vincent's book "Model to Meaning: How ...

🎙️ On this week’s episode @vincentab.bsky.social joins to chat with @epiellie.bsky.social & @lucystats.bsky.social about making statistical model output more meaningful via the {marginaleffects} package (and more!)

casualinfer.libsyn.com/site/from-mo...

PROBAST+AI is out! A risk of bias tool for prediction models developed using any kind of analytical approach (stats/ml/ai/ds)

Really proud of this collaboration with many prediction model experts around the world

www.bmj.com/content/388/...

Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it. Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...

New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words!

If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance.

www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...

Delighted to announce the full MEMTAB programme is now available to view :

uobevents.eventsair.com/memtab-2025/...

Includes all the invited speakers & accepted oral contributions ... and the 3 short courses.

It's going to be a great event!
(FYI only 1-2 places remain available for registration)

Clustered Flexible Calibration Plots For Binary Outcomes Using Random Effects Modeling Evaluation of clinical prediction models across multiple clusters, whether centers or datasets, is becoming increasingly common. A comprehensive evaluation includes an assessment of the agreement betw...

We tried to look at ways to obtain flexible calibration plots in clustered (e.g. multicenter) validation studies.
Work with @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social @laurewynants.bsky.social @bavodccampo.bsky.social

arxiv.org/abs/2503.08389

Are you a 16-17-year-old with ADHD in the UK, or do you work with young people this age? We are recruiting for ART-transition, a project aiming to improve our understanding of the transition to adulthood in young people with #ADHD.

If this interests you, get in contact at art-transition@kcl.ac.uk.

🔥🎉New library: boosting for survival analysis, including multiclass (competing risks)

Survival = missing outcomes because limited observation window (common in medicine, marketting...)

soda-inria.github.io/hazardous

Gives very fast boosted-trees for survival

Q1 2025 tidymodels digest A summary of the goings on for the tidymodels group in later 2024 and early 2025.

Check out what's new in #rstats tidymodels in our Q1 digest post!

If you use parallel processing a lot with tidymodels, please give this a look.

www.tidyverse.org/blog/2025/02...

Applied Statistical Modelling & Health Informatics This course has been created to deliver a skill set and knowledge base in “multimodal” and “big data” analysis techniques.

Interested in a career in statistical modelling and health informatics? Join the ASMHI MSc at King's College London!

🚀 Hands-on training in applied statistics, machine learning and AI using real-world data
🎯 Gain essential skills for research, healthcare and industry

www.kcl.ac.uk/study/postgr...

🥳

This past month has seen the publication of a couple of new helpful papers providing further insights into the thorny issue of #MultipleTesting in trials 1/7
#MethodologyMonday #112