Ben Moll

Great pleasure working with my amazing co-authors
@yuchengyang1993.bsky.social, Chiyuan Wang, and Andreas Schaab!

New paper: benjaminmoll.com/SRL/

Elsevier has dismissed Richard Tol as editor of the highly successful "Energy Economics". His account of the alleged and the actual reasons casts an even darker shadow over the academic publishing business.

Fraud and cover-up Fraud and cover-up

All is not well at Elsevier richardtol.substack.com/p/fraud-and-...

The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro Many applied microeconomics papers conclude with a back-of-the-envelope calculation that scales their cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level. These types of aggregate estimates are only vali...

🆕 The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro

Today on VoxDev, @benmoll.bsky.social (LSE) and @olihanney.bsky.social explain the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level, and discuss solutions for economists: voxdev.org/topic/method...

Many of the 'facts' that travel the furthest from economic research are based on a flawed method of scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate.

@benmoll.bsky.social and I have written about this 'missing intercept' problem, and what economists can do about it, here ⤵️

The White House war on federal statistics Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups

Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics
on.ft.com/43Tejhn

Stronger together - support for 🇺🇦 from private individuals, coordinated with @oechssler.bsky.social:

200 people gave at least 200€. Combined with extra donations, the total is about 60.000€.

The money is already in Ukraine. Thank you!

yourcontributionsquared.eu

According to this @zdfde.bsky.social Politbarometer poll, 76% of Germans are in favour of more defence spending with new debt.

This includes 90% of CDU voters, 52% of Die Linke voters and even 70% of FDP voters.

A fiscal public opinion revolution.

If one person gives a euro to Ukraine, the result is €1.

If two people give 2 each, it is €4.

If 3,000 give 3,000 each, it is 9 million.

Let’s coordinate, here 👇

and please re-post to spread the word.

yourcontributionsquared.eu/en/

SO true. "Oh noes I don't know how we're going to rearm we've only got one of the world's great industrial powerhouses looking for a new growth area whose government can borrow very cheaply, woe is us".

The European Union remains a funny animal.

Outside observers: rich place, lots of industry, lower debt levels than US/China. Should be able to rearm quickly and cheaply if they coordinate decision-making.

Leaders on the inside: I don’t trust my neighbour so let’s bicker while the house burns down.

To better compare Ukraine aid to defence spending, I turned the @kiel.institute figures into annual % of GDP, using the latest GDP data available and some extrapolation.

Europe will need to pull all the levers to up its defence spending How to get to 3.5%

Did some of the maths in this week's The @economist.com on EU defence spending and Ukraine aid if America withdraws.

Doable, but requires putting a lot of money on the table. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

www.eeassoc.org/news/improvi...

To: The future German chancellor To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...

Hey #EconSky

Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d

Please share this letter with your colleagues.

To spend big, Germany’s next government may need EU help How self-imposed constraints could lead to a bizarre outcome

"In an ironic twist, Germany might end up dependent on EU debt, which it usually opposes, to fund its armed forces [as EU debt does not fall under the debt brake]."

My latest for The @economist.com. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

To: The future German chancellor To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...

Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d

Please share this letter with your colleagues.
#UkrainianView

To: The future German chancellor To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...

@econ4ua.bsky.social is organizing an open letter to the future German chancellor (Germany is holding elections Sunday), urging them to lead and stand up to Russia.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

YouTube video by Financial Times 'Film me!’: Russia's executions of Ukrainian POWs points to a policy | FT Film

🚨NEW @financialtimes.com investigation reveals evidence that Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs are likely part of a systematic policy. And we uncover the identity of a Russian soldier likely involved in filming and carrying out the mass execution of 6 POWs.
📽️WATCH: www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Muw...

🎉Congrats to the 126 early-career scientists who have been awarded a Sloan Research Fellowship this year! These exceptional scholars are drawn from 51 institutions across the US and Canada, and represent the next generation of groundbreaking researchers. sloan.org/fellowships/...

Big congrats to this year's Sloan Fellows!

... and I say this as someone who has contributed to developing such linearization methods myself benjaminmoll.com/WIMM/.

Of course these methods are very useful for answering some questions. But just not for many others. (Plus the downsides in Fatih's thread)

@benmoll.bsky.social might have an opinion inspired by his work on rational expectations in HA model (benjaminmoll.com/challenge/)

For the one interested, @benmoll.bsky.social will present @igier @bocconi on Tuesday at 4.30pm

I couldn't agree more!

The excessive focus on linearized solutions to HA models is a bit like the old joke about the drunk who is looking for a key under a lamppost because that's where the light is.

More discussion of why we need non-linear models and ways forward here benjaminmoll.com/challenge/

📢 Kiel goes #MSC2025: Today at 11:15 CET Ethan Ilzetzki presents Kiel Report #2: "Guns and Growth: The Economic Consequences of Defense Buildups" at a press event at HypoVereinsbank (the official venue for everything press)! Join us if you're on site!
More 👉 www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

As I keep saying to German journos: the Finnish foreign minister is a native German speaker. Rare opportunity to get her on radio and TV, as this 👇 really matters.

Nichts von den US-Ankündigungen ist besonders überraschend. Aber sie machen einmal mehr deutlich, dass Europa seine Sicherheit selbst organisieren muss, wenn es bestehen will. Die Wiederherstellung von Sicherheit muss unbedingte Priorität der nächsten Bundesregierung sein.

A new #CEPR Policy Insight (w/ @inaganguli.bsky.social , Sasha Talavere and Yuliia Bezvershenko) on science & innovation in #Ukraine: tinyurl.com/msc2tr7a

See how co-authorship structure has shifted from 🇷🇺 to 🇵🇱, 🇩🇪, 🇺🇸, etc. These linkages will help rebound/rebuild science in 🇺🇦.

#UkrainianView