Max Hailperin

The logic to suggesting people just rank him and no one else is that he's afraid that if they rank someone else, they'll rank that person *ahead* of him. He's confident enough of making it into the final round that he has no reason to care who is ranked behind him on a ballot, so it's all downside.

I'm pretty sure it's 14 gables for a dollar, not just 7, because it's two packages of seven each.

Graph showing Ward 6 early voting tailing off after a strong first week, whereas other wards are stronger in weeks 2 and 3

Graph showing Ward 6 early in-person voting substantially falling off in week 2 and decreasing somewhat further in week 3, whereas other wards fell off less so in week 2 and picked back up some in week 3

With regard to whether Ward 6 voting loses as much steam this year, I offer up these two graphs. One includes all forms of early voting (including in particular by mail, which kicks in later) and the other is limited to just the in-person voting.

As an MIT alumnus, I'm proud of President Kornbluth's letter responding to the proposed "compact". She encapsulated the values I remember not only in the substance of her response but in its phrasing. orgchart.mit.edu/letters/rega...

Yo dog, I heard you like hallucinated citations, so we put hallucinated citations in your response regarding hallucinated citations so you can show cause while you show cause.
iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewD...

And please turn off automatic spelling "correction" on stuff you paste in. Nothing worse than taking the trouble to paste in the correct spelling, and then you press the space bar to put a space after it, and boing, suddenly it is "corrected" instead of correct.

With one t it is a real drug. Not one you want to experience.

Or if you really want a "registered voters" denominator, at the county and state levels one can wait for the EAVS data (which is now out for 2024), because that includes registration counts as of the end of the election.

There's really no good publicly available denominator at the precinct level. (At larger geography one can use CVAP or VEP.)

Conversely, the conventional choice of 7AM doesn't count the EDRs of people newly arriving from out of state or turning 18, so it could be an undercount in those university areas (for example). But that tends to balance out with the people who have departed for other states (e.g., after graduation).

one winds up with approximately double counting in each precinct in high mobility areas (e.g., the precincts surrounding a university) because voters moving from A to B and meanwhile others moving from B to A are getting counted in both their origin (7AM) and destination (EDR) which roughly equal.

7AM is the conventional choice, and if one uses 7AM+EDR, one needs to be aware that it overcounts the high-mobility precincts. To start with, all the in-precinct moves (or name changes) cause true double counting — the exact same voter is in both components of the sum. Even between-precinct moves

At any rate, I'm far from clear it's worth my while to write up a more careful explication of how badly wrong their analysis is. Might it just give them more publicity?

Ignoring those details, here's the chart illustrating the distinction between the city and non-city (unorganized or township) groups.

Namely, I haven't been able to exactly replicate the ETA data because of two factors. (1) They omitted a small number of precincts, for no obvious reason. (2) The numerator of their turnout seems to be inconsistent, sometimes including undervoted and overvoted ballots, but other times not.

Another observation I made is that most of the correlation between turnout and vote share can be accounted for by even a highly simplified version of urbanization status that just differentiates precincts with "UNORG" or "TWP" in their name from those without. But then I got sidetracked on details.

Brown: We do live in ‘A Precarious State,’ but place-baiting won’t solve anything "Aging population? Out-migration? Crime and drugs? Schools not as good as you remember? Welcome to the problems rural Minnesota has been fighting for more than 40 years," Aaron Brown writes.

I shoulda known @minnesotabrown.bsky.social would have a magnificent take on A Precarious State. He does. I'm providing a gift link so that you have no excuse to not read it. www.startribune.com/minneapolis-...

Ooh, Snuggle Puppy! Good choice!

Max-Hailperin's comment on "Beware of 2024 Minnesota election misinformation" Explore this conversation and more from the minnesota community

There's a badly flawed analysis of Minnesota's 2024 election data that has recently started circulating, originating with the "Election Truth Alliance" and amplified by "Truth Will Hold" and others. Redditor kmccoy made a good start at explaining what's wrong with it, and I chimed in.

This post and the replies on it are a fascinating Rorschach test. (I'm just showing a small sample.)

Or B-roll footage for an independent expenditure group to pick up for use in a campaign ad? (Insert "why not both?" gif)

My outsider understanding of military jargon is that the easel display should say "Operation Self-Licking Ice Cream Cone".

Equal justice under law - Wikipedia

I prefer Wikipedia's version to Justice Kennedy's in the New York Times. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equal_j...

Well, yes — the only question is by whom.

OMG. I thought I had seen it all, but I figured, there must be something new or you wouldn't be posting, so I went to see what new daftness she'd posted and ... yes, I hadn't seen it all, that *is* a new daftness.

As strong mayor, he's in charge of dangerous hellholes and killing fields, but not free and fair elections — Elections and Voter Services reports to the City Clerk, who is the rare administrative officer reporting to the City Council rather than the strong mayor.

Why did more mail voters return their ballots? Presumably because more received them. And why did more receive them? Presumably because the legislature allowed them to place a standing request for ballots to be mailed for each election, rather than requiring individual requests each year.

Chart showing Minneapolis early voting over the first 11 voting days (F, M-F, M-F). In 2021, 682 mail, 2581 in-person, and 3 other. In 2023, 496 mail, 2633 in-person, and 3 other. In 2025, 1310 mail, 2455 in-person, and 25 other.

I hesitate to post this because of how easily one can over-interpret early-voting data. Minneapolis in-person voting has been comparable to other recent municipal elections, whereas the number of mailed ballots returned and accepted for counting is off to a stronger start.

I know you are just trying to identify the guy in the conventionally decorous fashion, rather than trying to slander the state of Minnesota by association, but his approach to the law was really much more at home in Arizona and California than it is here in Minnesota.

Despite my reputation as a Minneapolis chauvinist, I dined in Hopkins this evening. And wouldn't you know it, I was seated back to back with John Wall. Must have been Minneapolis Ward 2 night. Sorry, didn't overhear any actionable intelligence.