Max Hailperin

Kudos to @bydanaferguson.bsky.social and @peterncox.bsky.social for correctly reporting that MN HD 34B does not have a *contested* Republican primary.

Someone forgot to take down this webpage:

www.justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/v...

Or on how weird it is to narrate an extended video about your car. I mean, yes, Walz has gone on at some length about his Scout, but that seems more proportionate to the unusualness of the vehicle. Whereas, do we really all need to know about how easy to hose out Frey's car is?

I'll toss a bunch of links at you; feel free to pick and choose which you read.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demeny_...
scholarship.law.umn.edu/mlr/1582/
law.bepress.com/cgi/viewcont...
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
wisconsinindependent.com/politics/j-d...
blogs.loc.gov/law/2018/04/...

this conversation between omar fateh, dewayne davis and angela conley after davis was eliminated on the first ballot and before he spoke to the convention should’ve gotten more attention. conley had endorsed both davis and fateh. i didn’t get great photos unfortunately

You are too hard on yourself with regard to the quality of the photos, but otherwise, yes.

Yes. Notably, from the perspective of whether this is a cleverly written campaign communication, it assumes that voters don't view Jazz Hampton as all three.

I need to walk back my claim; I'm failing to find a source squarely supporting it, contrary to my memory. I find plenty of sources that support the idea of extra votes based on number of children. But regarding husbands getting extra votes for wives, I find only international and historical sources.

News coverage has reduced "voting as a household" to husband votes, wife doesn't. But based on earlier sources, the idea seems to be that the husband/father casts not just one vote, but a number based on the size of his household. So this would be something more than undoing the 19th Amendment.

The Jazz Hampton campaign email about ranked-choice voting is quite good, but this sentence strikes me as a misstep: "You can rank the candidate who shares your vision for affordable housing first, the one with the best public safety plan second, and the experienced coalition-builder third."

Indeed, I'd argue that it was rational to think that Frey's successor would be similar, even if he were not his own successor.

There's a tension in this thread between "on their wishlist for decades" and, three posts later, "in service to this ... mayor." A more nuanced version is that Frey was simply the current example of the type of person that could be expected in an office elected at large rather than by ward.

Venn diagram of eyewitnesses who thought they saw Phyllis Khan, eyewitnesses who thought they saw Phyllis Kahn, and eyeglasses. The intersection of all three is labeled with an eye.

Umm, this may not be a topic worth commenting on, but neither of those looks much like Kahn.

“This act flows from a clear and simple wrong. Its only purpose is to right that wrong. Millions of Americans are denied the right to vote because of their color. This law will ensure them the right to vote.”

- President Lyndon B. Johnson before signing the Voting Rights Act 60 years ago this week

I Briefed the White House Yesterday on Four Years of Critical Election Research The administration is serious about election integrity and there’s a good reason President Trump won’t let it go.

So Keshel provides an additional stream of census denialism. Not just inclusion of noncitizens. Not just the under- and overcounts the Bureau has itself estimated. But a huge deviation from reality supposedly revealed by trend analysis and election turnout. And he recently briefed the White House.

In his post after the 2024 election, he updated this wild conjecture by including the number of ballots cast in 2024 (again, in Arizona) as a further data point supporting his claim that their population had been undercounted, notwithstanding the Census Bureau's own undercount study saying otherwise

A Captain's Testimony Before the Arizona Senate Topic: Elections

In particular, he points as an example to the conjecture he made in Arizona, that rather than the turnout increasing as a fraction of the total population, the population was really increasing more quickly than the census showed. That is, he's not just extrapolating past trends but using turnout too

The U.S. Census Bureau Stole At Least 16 Electoral Votes and 15 U.S. House Seats Topic: 2024 Election Analysis

What does this have to do with the 2024 presidential election? When he reprised his hand-waving after the election, his focus was on its impact: on how the electoral votes would have been affected had the population been as he conjectured. But he did also point to the turnout as a source of info.

Inside the Census Bureau's Corruption of the Electoral College and U.S. House Topic: Elections

His methodology is so loosely specified that it's hard to describe it as more than pulling numbers out of thin air. But to a degree, what he's done is extrapolate from past growth. If the census says a state's growth slowed, he thinks they must be wrong and the real population higher.

However, more recently he applied the same approach to the 2020 census. He mentions the Census Bureau's own scientific estimate of overcounts and undercounts by state, but he isn't content with the small shift in apportionment that would have caused. Instead, he conjectures the "real" populations.

The big lie goes on tour in Minnesota • Minnesota Reformer Armed with the sophisticated-seeming but ultimately debunked statistical analysis, Republicans have bombarded local and state election officials with questions, demands for “audits” — and even threats...

I was quoted in the article linked here as describing him that way. At the time, the context was his forecasting what vote counts ought to be based on prior elections and then declaring actual vote counts to be fraudulent because they didn't match his forecasts.

I think I may have a glimmering of an answer to the question I and @ariegoldshlager.bsky.social posed. And it ain't pretty. This seems to tie back to Seth Keshel, "an absolutely lousy weather forecaster who’s managed to trade that in for being a really great debunker of fraudulent thermometers."

I don't doubt Josh is right that some people will be mad. But you know whose fault that is? Those people. They should regulate their emotions better. This is a free service Josh is offering us, and many of us think it's pretty awesome, but if you don't, then just move on to some other free offering.

Data taken from the 2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) questions A7m and A1a. eac.gov/research-and...

For context, the total number of registered voters at the close of the 2024 election was 3,853,668. The above-mentioned updates — the ones based on National Change of Address (NCOA) and Electronic Registration Information Center (ERIC) — are 9% of that, so a significant number.

"Voter list maintenance" too often is taken as deleting registrations. Minnesota updates the registrations for in-state address changes. In the two-year period from after the 2022 election through the 2024 election, 344,524 registrations were updated in this way (details below).

It might strengthen the tie between voters and representatives. At present, a DFL voter in CD6 or a GOP voter in CD3 can't really connect with either Tom Emmer or Kelly Morrison, even if in aggregate they balance out. And campaign and voter behavior might change.

Proportional representation has been much discussed of late. For Minnesotans, at the moment there's little reason to think it would make a difference in the aggregate. Statewide votes, state House membership, state Senate membership, and US House delegation are all nearly 50/50.

If I could highlight one item from that web page: the deadline to withdraw as a candidate is 5pm on August 14, two days after the filing period closes at 5pm on August 12. So if you aren't sure whether you want to run, the smart move might be to file and thereby buy yourself 2 extra days to decide.