Thomas de Waal

How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."

An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

Ivanishvili has created "an illiberal and anti-European system which leaves no political space for either party opponents or civil society activists. Currently, almost all of Georgia’s major opposition party leaders are in prison. We call it a quasi-dictatorship."

Check out the latest episode of Talk Eastern Europe!

Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

Time for EU Decisions on Georgia Since last year’s election, Georgia’s ruling party has rolled back democracy and sabotaged the country’s EU accession process. To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the union and its member state...

On #Georgia, its rapid descent into authoritarian rule and the EU's struggle to respond. My piece today for Carnegie, with advice for Brussels: don't punish ordinary people by cancelling visa liberalization @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Time for EU Decisions on Georgia Since last year’s election, Georgia’s ruling party has rolled back democracy and sabotaged the country’s EU accession process. To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the union and its member state...

Since last year's election, Georgia's ruling party has rolled back democracy & derailed its EU accession process.

To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the EU should focus punitive measures on a small group in the elite, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

How Odesa’s Philharmonic Orchestra played on through the war A Ukrainian orchestra and their American conductor withstood Russian missiles to bring music to the city

My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...

Azerbaijani researcher Bahruz Samadov sentenced to 15 years on charges of treason Samadov, who has also contributed to OC Media, frequently wrote about authoritarianism in Azerbaijan.

oc-media.org/azerbaijani-... Outrageous news from Baku as young scholar and peace activist Bahruz Samadov is given a 15-year jail sentence for "treason." I'm afraid I hear that the news is even worse: Bahruz tried to take his own life by hanging in his cell over the weekend. He must be freed.

Thank you so much for these warm words!

Here's an essay I wrote for my college magazine about how it took me 35 years to translate Mandelstam's Tristia, the joys and tribulations of poetry translation and Osip M's amazing mysterious verse, which resonates anew with every generation. heyzine.com/flip-book/fl...

How Eastern Europe Overhauled Its Natural Gas Market After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Eastern Europe successfully ended its dependence on Russian natural gas. To ensure the region’s energy security, the EU must continue to diversify its supplies...

And if you haven't done so already, read Max's paper on the European gas issue carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Securing Energy Independence: The Future of Eastern Europe’s Gas Supply Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, nearly all of Central and Eastern Europe has cut its reliance on Moscow’s gas. While regional cooperation and expanded LNG access have helped diversify supplie...

Since 2022 Central and Eastern Europe has undergone a fundamental shift away from reliance on Russian gas. Will it last? Join @maxhess.bsky.social‬, Sergey Vakulenko and me tomorrow for a Carnegie Europe webinar to discuss these issues. It will be insightful! carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.

www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social

Between harassment and expulsion, Georgia is bent on silencing British journalist Will Neal Independent British journalist Will Neal was arbitrarily denied entry into Georgia, where he has lived since 2022, upon returning from a trip to the United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU). Report...

This reporting has now resulted in Neal being denied re-entry into Georgia, the country has lived in since 2022. A blow not just against Neal, but against free speech and independent reporting on Georgia
rsf.org/en/between-h...

Moscow’s Ties to the Georgian Regime Ran Through Kensington and Chelsea Leaked documents reveal how UK firm Hunnewell Partners, controlled by alleged enablers of Georgia’s ruling oligarch, facilitated a top Putin crony’s attempts to exploit the collapse of a more than $1....

Please read, share and repost this brave piece of journalism by Will Neal @willneal.bsky.social‬ about Georgia and the dealings and Russia connections of London-based Hunnewell Partners which owns Imedi TV amongst other assets, is a close partner of Georgian Dream.
bylinetimes.com/2025/03/31/m...

Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...

As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement.

Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

💡Registration is open for the 2025 Carnegie Endowment James C. Gaither Junior Fellows Conference, The Next Generation of Foreign Policy.

📅June 11, 11am-5pm EDT, in-person. Open exclusively to students and young professionals.

Learn more and register here: carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

Can Turkey and Armenia Normalize Relations? | Europe Inside Out Rym Momtaz, Thomas de Waal, and Garo Paylan examine why the normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations remains stalled and how Europe might help revitalize the process.

"Can Turkey and Armenia Normalize Relations?" with @tomdewaal.bsky.social ‬ and Garo Paylan via @carnegieeurope.bsky.social. [3/5]

Another biographical gem from Cavid

🎧 | Turkey & Armenia are divided by decades of unresolved tensions & a closed border.

In a new episode of #EuropeInsideOut, @rmomtaz.bsky.social, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, & Garo Paylan discuss whether the countries can normalize relations.

To listen: europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/can...

Can Turkey and Armenia Normalize Relations? | Europe Inside Out Rym Momtaz, Thomas de Waal, and Garo Paylan examine why the normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations remains stalled and how Europe might help revitalize the process.

It's the move that benefits (almost) everyone but still does not happen... Who better to discuss the search for Armenia-Turkey normalization with than Garo Paylan? I enjoyed our discussion with @rmomtaz.bsky.social for the Carnegie Europe podcast europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/can...

Inside Taganrog: beatings, electrocution and starvation at prison where Ukrainians were tortured Russia is holding an estimated 16,000 civilians in arbitrary detention at 180 separate facilities. Taganrog was the most notorious.

Yesterday we published our investigation into torture & death of Ukrainian journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna.

Now, what I & several Guardian colleagues have been working on for past few months: inside one of Russia's worst torture prisons for Ukrainians

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...

Free Bahruz Samadov International Academic Community Calls for the Release of Young Azerbaijani Scholar Bahruz Samadov

Today, researcher & @charlesuni.cuni.cz PhD candidate Bahruz Samadov is spending 30th birthday behind bars in Azerbaijan, where critical scholarly work is criminalized, labeled as treason. There shld be more academic voices demanding Bahruz's freedom. #FreeBahruz

www.psapopulism.org/blog/news/fr...

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions…

President Trump’s apparent belief that Ukraine will inevitably lose its war against Russia if it doesn’t accept a peace deal may not be in line with the battlefield reality.

@alexgabuev.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social explain for the @ceip-politika.bsky.social podcast:

How Eastern Europe Overhauled Its Natural Gas Market After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Eastern Europe successfully ended its dependence on Russian natural gas. To ensure the region’s energy security, the EU must continue to diversify its supplies...

Central and Eastern Europe have made a fundamental transition from reliance on Russian gas. Even if there is a halt to the war in Ukraine, there is no going back. Our latest analysis from Carnegie by ‪@maxhess.bsky.social‬ carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.

So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Trump Administration Denies Parole to Harvard Scientist From Russia, Citing Threat to US Security The Trump administration denied parole to a Russian scientist working at Harvard University, saying she is a threat to US security.

Exclusive: Trump Administration Denies Parole to Harvard Scientist From Russia, Citing Threat to US National Security www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Why Are Political Protests Surging Around the World? Governmental overreach or neglect is sparking citizen mobilization in many countries.

carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202... For sure protesters in Georgia, Hungary and Serbia are watching and deriving inspiration from each other

But as the FT also says, “Saadé said the outlook for this year was uncertain, with the possibility that tariffs could roil global trade.” Surely that $20bln investment promise will just melt away now.