Thomas de Waal

A lovely man and a great Russia scholar. Very sad news.

This piece by my Berlin colleague Alexandra Prokopenko is essential reading on Russia. The Russian economy is in a slow death spiral, bankrupting itself on fuelling the Ukraine war--and yet the leadership is not changing course, as it believes everyone else is also failing.

Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.

This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...

The unquiet past: memory, conflict and the writer’s voice A special live music and reading event dedicated to Akram Aylisli, the Nobel Prize-nominated Azerbaijani writer whose novel Stone Dreams ignited international debate on Armenia and Azerbaijan.

I had stopped advertising our Akram Aylisli event tomorrow evening as it was sold out but they have now moved us to a bigger room. Come along if you can! (ignore the banner here) www.thersa.org/events/2026/...

Thank you! Yes, literally silting up like the Danube

Europolis, Where Europe Ends A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

🆕 | A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards.

In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europolis, Where Europe Ends A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

Europolis, an evocative Romanian novel from 1933 about a Danube delta town, has much to tell us about Europe's real and imagined discontents. Real "decay" in Europe is about closing off cultural and mercantile exchange My piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus? In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...

❔ | In return for a trade deal & the release of prisoners, Washington has lifted sanctions on Belarus.

Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally?

Read experts' takes:
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus? In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...

Delighted to contribute to @carnegieendowment.org ’s #TakingThePulse on whether Europe should reengage with #Belarus. An interesting set of diverse views: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat....

New Tricks and AI Tools in Hungary’s High-Stakes Election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his most serious challenge yet in the April 2026 parliamentary elections. All of Europe should monitor the Fidesz campaign: It will use unprecedented method...

Viktor Orban is using new and old methods to keep power in the upcoming Hungarian election, from handouts to AI fabrications. It's a laboratory of sorts for other future European elections. By the remarkable Zsuzsanna Szelényi for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...

The hyper-personalized global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia.

But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...

It's not the Monroe Doctrine 2.0, it's the “Gone-Rogue Doctrine.”

My column today for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social on Trump's Greenland gambit as performative imperialism, why “sphere of influence” politics doesn’t work any more and Europe's choices. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Solidarity Is a Must for Europe to Ensure its Own Security Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States. For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions i...

Europe is designing a new model of collective security that no longer relies on the United States.

For this effort to succeed, solidarity between member states that have different threat perceptions is vital, argues @erik-jones.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

EU Parliament adopts resolution condemning human rights situation in Azerbaijan The resolution ‘strongly’ condemns the arrest of Ali Karimli, chair of the opposition Popular Front Party, and calls for his immediate release.

The EU Parliament has adopted a new resolution condemning the human rights situation in Azerbaijan and the imprisonment of researchers Bahruz Samadov and Igbal Abilov, on 18 December.

Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...

U.S. President Donald Trump's claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his #peace efforts raise valid questions.

Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in protracted conflicts, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Trump’s Peace Lessons for Europe U.S. President Donald Trump’s claims to have ended eight wars may be debatable, but his peace efforts raise valid questions. Europe can learn lessons from Washington on how to break the deadlock in pr...

My piece just published. It's easy to be sniffy about Trump's "Art of the Deal" peace-making. Liberal peace is still the best variety, if rare. But Europe can still learn from Trump's willingness to shake things up and break the status quo. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

🎧 | Is Britain Becoming More Like Europe?

In this new #EuropeInsideOut episode, @tomdewaal.bsky.social, @peterkellner.bsky.social, & Anne McElvoy discuss the state of British politics and what it means for EU-UK relations.

Listen now 👉 europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...

Taking the Pulse: Should Europe Negotiate with Russia? By negotiating directly with the Kremlin, the Trump administration has broken the taboo on diplomatic contacts with Russia. With Ukrainian and European security at stake, is it time for Brussels to op...

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Should Europe be negotiating directly with Russia? Seven scholars respond to our latest @carnegieeurope.bsky.social (deliberately provocative) question

Armenia's election, like it or not, is being fought by outside actors as well. Russia and parts of the US diaspora have a new candidate to unseat Nikol Pashinyan. Pashinyan needs help to demonstrate progress in his Real Armenia agenda. My latest for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social

A great line-up of experts, ahead of @cop30brazil.bsky.social, to consider if Europe still has a leadership role on climate change. Yes, it does, some say, it never had one, others contend!

Taking the Pulse: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to energy transition and ecological protection. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain its role as a d...

❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️

COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action.

Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role?
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Can the EU Meet the Trump Moment? The second term of U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing Europeans to strengthen their capacity for collective action. But their biggest challenge comes from within: U.S.-backed radical-right parties...

Europe is still struggling to cope with the second Trump presidency, writes Stefan Lehne for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social Echoing St Augustine, the message is “Lord, make us autonomous, but not just yet!” But the time to act is now. A great read. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."

An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

Ivanishvili has created "an illiberal and anti-European system which leaves no political space for either party opponents or civil society activists. Currently, almost all of Georgia’s major opposition party leaders are in prison. We call it a quasi-dictatorship."

Check out the latest episode of Talk Eastern Europe!

Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

Time for EU Decisions on Georgia Since last year’s election, Georgia’s ruling party has rolled back democracy and sabotaged the country’s EU accession process. To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the union and its member state...

On #Georgia, its rapid descent into authoritarian rule and the EU's struggle to respond. My piece today for Carnegie, with advice for Brussels: don't punish ordinary people by cancelling visa liberalization @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Time for EU Decisions on Georgia Since last year’s election, Georgia’s ruling party has rolled back democracy and sabotaged the country’s EU accession process. To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the union and its member state...

Since last year's election, Georgia's ruling party has rolled back democracy & derailed its EU accession process.

To avoid penalizing pro-European citizens, the EU should focus punitive measures on a small group in the elite, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

How Odesa’s Philharmonic Orchestra played on through the war A Ukrainian orchestra and their American conductor withstood Russian missiles to bring music to the city

My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...