John Schmitt

Serious question: At this point, couldn't Switzerland just offer to make a large deposit in Trump's name in a Swiss bank account and call it a day? Would MAGA or Congress or the Supreme Court object?

Since No One Else Seems to Care, Let’s Remember Epstein’s Survivors They've already told us everything we need to know...

Ghislaine Maxwell, who helped Jeffrey Epstein procure and sexually abuse young women, was transferred to a cushy minimum-security prison in Texas in the midst of Trump needing her support with the Epstein files.

We all know what's happening but shouldn't lose focus. www.jezebel.com/since-no-one...

Figure from Ernie Tedeschi titled nonfarm payroll employment percent revisions

Important to remember that because of the incredible work of government statisticians, initial BLS employment estimates have become MORE accurate.

Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past

excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

Guy who was convicted on 34 counts of first‑degree falsification of business records says the numbers were rigged.

It's funny to think that my preference for urban living in areas with dense, mixed-used, walkable neighborhoods, multi-family housing, small businesses, and diversity probably stems from Sesame Street. Like an early education in Jane Jacob's urbanist theories.

Yes, Firing the Commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a Five Alarm Fire We got some really bad economic news this week.

yes, firing the commissioner at the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a five-alarm fire substack.com/home/post/p-... On the plus side, we don't have to argue that the report was in fact very bad.

!! Kevin Hassett (PhD, University of Pennsylvania), potential Fed chair, sought to frame the firing of the BLS commissioner as an attempt to restore “trust” at the statistics agency. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

A few of our colleagues in macro enthusiastically joined this Administration, which is now destroying one of our profession's most valuable resources in the BLS data.

I wonder how they're feeling about it? Will there be any kind of social stigma afterwards?

“The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) strongly condemns the removal of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and the unfounded accusations leveled against the work of the agency…

A totally apolitical group.

files.constantcontact.com/668faa28001/...

April 17 prediction.

Trump would rather take a chance on losing a part of his base then taking a chance on Americans finding out what is in the Epstein files that implicates him.

Moving Ghislaine Maxwell is a start to silencing her.

It must be as bad as we imagine.
#ProudBlue

Today, Trump directed his team to fire the commissioner BLS because he didn’t like the jobs numbers BLS released. This is a move straight out of an autocratic playbook. 1/

President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system. The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system.

"The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.

"...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."

Opinion | Data from Calif. and D.C. shows how minimum wage hikes can hurt Recent experience underscores the perils of raising minimum wage above what the market can bear.

Probably unreasonable to expect the Post editorial board to stay on top of economic research but there are three studies of California's fast food minimum wage (not just the one they preferred to highlight)

The average estimate across studies suggests the policy had essentially no employment effect

This is an attack on democracy itself.

No Democratic or Republican politician can be allowed to suppress the most basic facts that the reveal real-world effects of policy.

Facts are the only basis for accountability, and thus a firebreak against dictatorship.

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

First ever repost of Michael R. Strain.

Hard to overstate how important this issue is for the future of democracy.

#BLS

Federal Reserve governor to resign early, handing Trump an immediate opening on board Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler is stepping down from Fed, creating an unexpected opening for President Trump to shape the Federal Reserve.

Breaking news: Adriana Kugler is unexpectedly stepping down from the Federal Reserve’s powerful board of governors, creating an early vacancy that will give President Trump an early opportunity to shape the Fed’s leadership.

And lot of what we're seeing now is the cynical, well-organized, and well-funded backlash to the success of so much of that work.

Many of the organizations mentioned in Mark Schmitt's essay fought lonely uphill battles in the 1990s and 2000s on issues where there is now much more space and in some cases even broad consensus: climate, minimium wage, healthcare reform, antitrust, fiscal policy, trade and industrial policy...

A great piece, but leaves out the crucial role for organizations in this benighted moment to recruit and nurture the experts that can help inform policy when facts and expertise matter again.

Even if we make no headway in the short-term, we need infrastructure in place for when new space emerges.

“Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.” -George Orwell

Trump's dream of building a ballroom at the White House is becoming a reality After at least 15 years of talking about it, President Trump is building a ballroom at the White House. Work will begin this September, with a price tag of $200 million, the White House says.

Trump's dream of building a ballroom at the White House is becoming a reality - $200 million

www.npr.org/2025/07/31/n...

JayPow, you watching this?

US transit costs and how to tame them Alon Levy explains how the US can build cheaper, better public transit by learning from the rest of the world.

There's a *ton* of interesting stuff in this pod with Alon Levy about why US public transit is so f'ing expensive, but I really want to highlight what I take as his Main Point, to wit ...

Trump's 'emergency' tariffs face crucial court battle | CBC News Most of the tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed on countries around the world — including the ones on Canada that he's threating to bump to 35 per cent — face a crucial legal test on ...

This is the court case that could change the tariff wars.
www.cbc.ca/news/world/t...

For more on Sadie Alexander, see Bucknell economics professor Nina Banks' Yale University Press book "Democracy, Race, & Justice"

yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300...

Black and white news photo shows Sadie Alexander standing alongside President Harry Truman and others. A note below the photo says: "The bronze likeness of Sadie Alexander will be installed not far from where former Mayor Frank Rizzo’s statue used to be, before it was taken down." United States President Harry Truman meets at the White House, January 15, 1947, with members of his Civil Rights Committee in Washington, D.C., including Sadie Alexander. (AP Photo)

"New statue [in Philadelphia] to honor a trailblazing civil rights leader" Sadie Alexander

Alexander was also the first Black American to receive a PhD in economics

whyy.org/articles/phi...

And they oughta know.

@deanbaker13.bsky.social on Trump and the Fed:

"It makes zero sense to lower rates if you believe the economy is booming as the Trumpers claim. This is like telling someone you’re driving too fast, push the accelerator harder"

substack.com/home/post/p-...