Rym Momtaz ريم ممتاز

With the clock ticking down on Trump’s tariff deadline, and EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in Washington, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took a family vacation to Italy, according to Politico’s Brussels Playbook

www.politico.eu/newsletter/b...

US trade deficit with the EU has climbed to record-high levels since Trump's return to White House
• US trade deficit with EU widened by 97% year on year in first quarter of 2025, to US$96bn
• Data highlight how US firms frontloaded imports ahead of implementation of Trump's tariffs

More of Lavrov's statements from an interview with a Hungarian Magyar Nemzet media. If you've been following the war for any time, you will see nothing new here. So Russia has no willingness to end the war.

Source: magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2025/0…

The bear beneath the ice: Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic Russia is rapidly developing—and militarising—its Arctic territory as a strategic priority, even amid its war on Ukraine. Add Trump’s coveting of Greenland to the mix, and the next confrontation in…

Away from the discussions at the BRICS summit today, Russia is pursuing an independent policy agenda in the arctic.
"Europeans need to situate Russia’s growing ambitions in the region within Moscow’s broader strategic aims", write Mikhail Komin and Joanna Hosa in their policy brief 👉

😁😁
Je ne sais pas si c'est bon signe ou mauvais signe vu les enjeux...

The Small Window for an EU-U.S. Diplomatic Push on Iran To turn U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program into a long-term resolution, Washington should seize the moment and cooperate with France, Germany, and the UK on diplomatic talks.

Despite their geopolitical impotence on UKR and Gaza, Euros cld be helpful on 3 central aspects:restoring inspections of Iran nuke facilities, influencing Tehran’s LT calculus, and helping get a broader agreement that reduces the ISR gov’s pretexts to resume war
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Sefcovic is the latest EU official to call time on the end of freewheeling global trade

"Those days are behind us"

OH the irony.

Razor-Thin and Deeply Divided: The Polish Election Shock The election of populist Karol Nawrocki as Poland’s president poses challenges to the country’s reform agenda and deeper EU integration. Yet, the narrow result underscores that Poland still has a stro...

Ahead of the July 11 Polish parliament confidence vote on Tusk's govt (which he called for), read this by
@susmonika.bsky.social assessing just how responsible Tusk and his coalition were for the presidential win by Nawrocki, the populist backed by PiS.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

🎙️ Excellent épisode du Collimateur d’ @alexjubelin.bsky.social avec @rmomtaz.bsky.social, @rikefranke.bsky.social et @elietenenbaum.bsky.social.
Discussions très pertinentes et éclairantes sur la place de l’Europe et la notion de pouvoir géopolitique.

Ukraine : ce que peuvent les négociations [Le Casque et la Plume #12] Alors que des négociations s'ouvrent une nouvelle fois à Istanbul entre Russie et Ukraine, le "Casque et la plume" revient sur leurs perspectives et le rapport de force, avec @RymMomtaz, @RikeFranke e...

le possible "une zone d'interdiction aérienne" ça ne se fait pas Pourquoi? Parce qu'on a peur des Russes nous dit @rmomtaz.bsky.social d'où les rodomontades européennes Excellent épisode merci @alexjubelin.bsky.social @elietenenbaum.bsky.social @rikefranke.bsky.social
lerubicon.org/collimateur-...

🇪🇺🇮🇱 Should the European Union suspend its association agreement with Israel?
@amelieferey.bsky.social, Research Fellow at Ifri's Security Studies Center, shares her analysis in @carnegieendowment.org's latest commentary. ⤵️
www.ifri.org/en/media-ext...

@rmomtaz.bsky.social

The Irresistible Plan Europeans Can Offer Trump to Save NATO At the next NATO summit, Europeans have an opportunity to set new conditions for decades to come. They can strengthen the alliance by committing to a timeline that allows for a U.S. drawdown while pre...

At the #NATO summit, Europeans have an opportunity to set new conditions for decades to come.

They can strengthen the alliance by committing to a timeline that allows for a US drawdown while preserving American strategic enablers, argues @rmomtaz.bsky.social.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Moscow's way of signalling that "denazification" is still part of its game ( along with neutralisation, demilitarisation and annexation)

When they roll out and enforce the so-called "massive sanctions" *in coordination with the US* as they threatened Sunday then we can say they did it. Half measures and incremental measures aren't good enough anymore.

Also serving in the US military is one of the fast-tracks to citizenship for foreigners...

In the space of 5 days we’ve gone from a 24h ultimatum and “massive sanctions” bearing down on Russia, supposedly in coordination w/US, to Euros saying “we’ll continue to coordinate [with US etc] to define a united response”

START'EM YOUNG!

Rubio: only way to get breakthrough is for Trump and Putin to meet.
Basically rewarding Putin w/summit for rejecting every demand.

So much for terrible consequences the Euros threatened, claiming coordination w/US, if Putin refused unconditional ceasefire +no progress in TUR.

Narrator’s voice “Germany did not, in fact, spend 5% on defence”.

(This is still helpful in the debate)

Interesting but let's actually see how that would happen concretely.

Why Europeans Should Impose a Ceasefire in Ukraine The meeting of EU leaders in Ukraine underscored their reliance on the United States for game-changing actions to end Russia’s war. But Europeans can influence military efforts on the ground, includin...

FR FM says Euro sanctioning 194 RUS oil tankers, 31 entities providing weapons, banks etc.

Why not start by stopping Euro purchasing of RUS oil and gas. Since the price cap was intro, the EU as a whole has been the 4th largest purchaser as I wrote here:

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

With Putin now ridiculing his own Turkey talks proposal, Re-upping this from me on Tuesday:

"Instead of hollow ultimatums [Europeans] cannot enforce, it is now time they create military facts on the ground that impose a ceasefire in at least parts of Ukraine."

Recent closed-door discussions with various officials—including some from the CDU—reveal how difficult the process is. Many recoil at explicitly recognizing that the United States no longer wishes to be the ultimate guarantor of European security.

Unfortunately, there is also this, in the CDU 👇
(By @rmomtaz.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...)

And I am dismayed that the SPD still lives in past-time lalaland

Very important step taken by France: officially attributing cyber attacks against dozens of FR entities since 2021 to Russia's GRU (it also hacked Macron's campaign emails in 2017) : ministries, defense companies, think tanks etc

The 2d test will be how to handle the question of whether and when the Euros should reengage w/Russia.

This was raised by a couple of countries, though not France, at a recent summit hosted by Macron. The question was dismissed as untimely, but it has since come up in lower-level discussions

the German est has to invest in a new foreign and security nervous system w/o US. Many recoil at recognizing that the US no longer wishes to be the ultimate guarantor of Euro security, continue to hold on to hope that everything will go back to normal, warn of an imagined “self-fulfilling prophecy”

WAPO: “.. ocean-container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by more than 60 percent ..

“.. The consequence will be ‘empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and covid-like shortages for consumers ..’”

@davidjlynch.bsky.social @jeffstein.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

The US Is the West’s Achilles’ Heel, but Not All Is Doomed Trump’s policies are undermining Western hegemony. To face the upcoming AI revolution, Europeans should aim to rebalance and leverage transatlantic cooperation.

Trump has turned the US from the West’s most reliable and lucrative asset into its biggest liability.

Trump’s most extreme policies are not supported by a majority of Americans. most Republicans still support both foreign trade and defending allies’ security.

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...