Valentina Pasquali

Tighter US export controls to hit Gulf sales and compliance New US export restrictions may slow down sales of American products to the Gulf and create more compliance hurdles for companies

The BIS rule change does not impact US exports of advanced semiconductors to the Gulf or wider Middle East as those already require Department of Commerce licences under separate technology-based regulations, analysts said. Via AGBI www.agbi.com/trade/2025/1...

Mena urged to overhaul education for AI-driven future The gap between poorer and richer Mena countries when it comes to AI must be addressed, experts warn at IMF meetings

AI "is a tsunami hitting the labour market for which I’m not sure we are prepared,” said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. For AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/ai/...

GCC walks US-China economic tightrope Gulf states are treading a delicate path between Washington and Beijing as geoeconomic tensions between the two superpowers increase

Some domains, such as advanced technology, have emerged as especially fraught with complexity, as the US in particular works to muscle China out of the Gulf in exchange for its best-in-class offering. From AGBI www.agbi.com/analysis/tra...

IMF loan plan for Lebanon will not be finalised 'in a day' Lebanon is edging closer to securing an IMF loan programme, but hurdles remain, economy minister Amer Bisat said yesterday

Economy and trade minister Amer Bisat said his country’s macroeconomic situation remains “abnormal,” adding “this is not the Lebanon we want”. In AGBI: www.agbi.com/economy/2025...

Syria opens for business as ministers go on charm offensive Syria has launched a charm offensive to persuade investors it is open for business and development after 13 years of civil war

Syria has launched a global charm offensive to persuade investors it is open for business, reconstruction and development after 13 years of civil war left the country in ruins. For AGBI: www.agbi.com/construction...

Saudi finance minister warns of global debt 'storm' Rising debt levels are creating a perfect storm that requires a coordinated global response, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister said Tuesday

“Large, sustained increases in debt, if they do not include productive public investments, are simply a tax that we are imposing on the next generation without actually giving them the tool to repay it,” Al-Jadaan said on Tuesday. For AGBI www.agbi.com/economy/2025...

IMF upgrades Middle East growth forecast The IMF has upgraded its economic forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia amid rising oil production and recovering shipping

The IMF sounded an almost optimistic note on growth in MENA, despite the global tariff war. “This largely reflects developments in GCC countries, in particular Saudi Arabia, where the unwinding of oil production cuts was faster than expected, and Egypt." www.agbi.com/economy/2025...

Dubai Basketball club is ‘test case’ for global push Dubai Basketball is the first Gulf team in the Euroleague, highlighting the region's sports investment and the league’s push beyond Europe

Investors and brands from both Europe and the US, basketball’s traditional home bases, are upping engagement with the region and using it as an experimental ground for how to grow their global footprints. From AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/bus...

IMF gives preliminary nod to Jordan’s economic progress An International Monetary Fund official said on Tuesday that Jordan is “on track” to receive nearly $250 million in financing

An IMF official said that Jordan is “on track” to receive nearly $250 million in financing under two loan programmes as the government presses ahead with needed reforms to its tax system, labor market, utilities sector, and more. From AGBI: www.agbi.com/economy/2025...

US pins hopes on Gulf for supply of critical minerals Gulf states are key to America’s race to secure a supply of critical minerals and rare earths that avoids the China bottleneck

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours are emerging as key players in a US push to secure critical and rare earth minerals, according to industry experts. From AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/min...

IMF praises UAE resilience but warns of property and crypto risks International Monetary Fund officials this week commended the UAE’s economic performance during a period of widespread global volatility

Unsurprisingly the UAE passed the latest IMF check with flying colors. But there are warnings around a possible bubble in real estate and a runaway virtual assets industry - In AGBI: www.agbi.com/economy/2025...

Abu Dhabi reports spike in US company registrations US companies are increasingly setting up in Abu Dhabi, with the emirate reporting a 50 percent year-on-year rise in registrations in 2024

A love affair is growing between American companies and Abu Dhabi www.agbi.com/trade/2025/1...

US government shutdown threatens investment climate for Gulf money The partial shutdown of government operations is raising questions about the reliability of the US as a destination for GCC investments

The US government shutdown may not have any outsized implications for Gulf investors immediately, but it is not a good look for a country that is seeking to attract hundreds of billions of dollars in FDI from the GCC over the coming years: www.agbi.com/analysis/fin...

GCC stands to gain from new EU green standards Gulf businesses that adhere to new EU rules for green reporting could benefit from greater investment, experts say

Family conglomerates, state-linked companies & Gulf-based multinationals with significant presence in the EU are among the entities within the scope of the bloc's new ESG reporting requirements expected to come into force in 2028. My latest for AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/sus...

Gulf investors seek clarity about Trump’s Gold Card Wealthy Gulf families are pressing advisers with questions about new pathways to living in the US recently outlined by Donald Trump

Which options may best suit Gulf investors and their families will depend on how Trump’s guidelines are ultimately implemented: www.agbi.com/analysis/lif...

Saudi has most to gain from Trump’s H-1B visa Saudi Arabia stands to benefit more than the UAE from Washington’s decision to sharply raise fees on a popular skilled-worker visa

The “best of the best” always had and will continue to have their pick of where they want to live, and a $100,000 fee will not make a difference to them or their large employers. Via AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/emp...

Turkish Airlines has agreed Boeing deal, US envoy says A sale of Boeing planes to Turkish Airlines has been agreed between Turkey and the US, according to a senior American official

Tom Barrack, the American ambassador to Turkey, told reporters in Washington “the deal is done”, but did not immediately provide additional information.
www.agbi.com/aviation/202...

LNG bonanza benefits Europe but clouds investment prospects Rising LNG output from Qatar and North America is boosting Europe’s energy security but hurting investment prospects as prices fall, IEA says

“What we have now, what we have built in the last 30 years, 50 percent of it will come to markets in the next five years,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol at an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations.
From AGBI: www.agbi.com/energy/2025/...

Report shows rising risk of real estate bubble in Dubai Dubai has posted the steepest increase in real estate bubble risk among nearly two dozen global cities, according to a UBS property report

“Dubai’s bubble risk has surged since 2022 amid an economic boom, leaving the market looking increasingly overheated,” the study found. www.agbi.com/real-estate/...

IMF calls on Kuwait to speed up economic reforms The IMF has urged Kuwait to keep pushing on economic reforms as it seeks to diversify from oil – and praised its progress on tax and debt law

The IMF warned that Kuwait's economy was still “heavily exposed in the short run to upside and downside risks from shifts in oil prices and Opec+ production quotas" arising "from fluctuations in global growth, geopolitical tensions or non-Opec+ supply”. www.agbi.com/economy/2025...

US risks losing out to China in Saudi AI chip market Experts warn the US must swiftly finalise rulese for the export of AI semiconductors to Saudi Arabia before China closes the gap

The US should seize its “fleeting” advantage over China in best-in-class semiconductors and “secure its place as the kingdom’s preferred AI partner” by formalising the Nvidia-Humain deal. For AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/tec...

Fed's rate cut is welcome news for the Gulf The US Fed's widely anticipated decision to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points bodes well for Gulf economies

Lower rates in the Gulf are expected to support corporate lending, mortgage borrowing and the private sector’s role in economic diversification, without some of the downside risks they might have in the US, analysts told AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/eco...

A Jordanian rail link is both 'hinge and bottleneck' for Imec A vital link in a proposed economic corridor connecting Europe to India through the Middle East is also the most difficult to build

The Jordanian rail link is its “core overland spine” and would “knit” the Gulf to the Mediterranean, said Racha Helwa, a senior economist who has worked for the Egyptian government. For AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/log...

US-China TikTok deal risks splitting global app profile A US-China TikTok deal may force companies everywhere, including in the Middle East, to develop different marketing tactics for the US

As another deadline for TikTok's divestment in the US comes and goes, Trump’s announcement that a deal with China is within reach leaves many unanswered questions for creators, users & investors in the Gulf and around the world. From AGBI www.agbi.com/analysis/tec...

Turkish companies in Africa move fast to compete with China Turkey’s agility in seizing new opportunities is putting it toe-to-toe with Chinese competitors in Africa, regional experts say

Chinese companies are well-known for their reach across Africa. But their Turkish competitors are increasingly going toe-to-toe with them as they jump on opportunities quickly and bring a more diverse array of financing options. My latest for AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/tra...

Gulf savours prospect of first US Fed rate cut of 2025 Middle East watchers expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday, with regional central banks likely to follow

The region is positioned to benefit from lower US rates, from equity markets to corporate lending to mortgage borrowing. For AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/eco...

Ecotourism in the Middle East: separating facts from fiction The Gulf hospitality industry is embracing sustainability, but consumers can struggle to tell real ecotourism from corporate greenwashing

Hospitality in the GCC is embracing sustainability, but consumers can struggle to tell real ecotourism from corporate greenwashing in a region with heavy energy & water consumption. As you plan that winter vacay, here are some thoughts. From AGBI: www.agbi.com/analysis/tou...

Saudi's hunger for homegrown food attracts tasty US partnerships Saudi Arabia’s push for food self-sufficiency is gaining momentum, with ministers deepening ties with international companies

“There are a lot of synergies and mutual benefits that can happen between the two countries because of the needs of Saudi Arabia and because of the needs of American companies to grow outside the US" - My latest for @AGBInsight www.agbi.com/analysis/foo...

Saudi Arabia’s long play around the 2026 Fifa World Cup When Saudi Arabia’s PIF upped its Bank of America investments earlier this year, the 2026 Fifa World Cup might have been in its calculations

When Saudi Arabia’s PIF upped its Bank of America investments in the first half of this year, the 2026 Fifa World Cup might well have been on its mind. My latest for AGBI on KSA's approach to the soccer (oops, football) World Cup next year. www.agbi.com/analysis/bus...

Guyana's new oil wealth poses risks and rewards for the Gulf Guyana's oil production poses a challenge to Gulf states, but also presents a chance for investment and growth

Guyana went to the polls this week in an election that revolved fully around how the govt should handle massive new oil riches. Gulf states, with their deep expertise on oil-fueled development and sovereign funds, may have a role to play. For @AGBInsight www.agbi.com/analysis/oil...