@judithgeology.bsky.social
Earthquake scientist; read my earthquake newsletter: earthquakeinsights.substack.com. Visiting Asst Prof @CornellEAS; prev @ EOS_SG, Caltech, Harvard. Mom (x3). Local elected official! I also post pictures of my foster kittens.
Will a large earthquake be followed by an even larger event? A 2025 paper proposed a new method for classifying foreshocks in advance, with an apparent success rate above 90%.
But does it work?
Our deep-dive analysis found serious problems that we believe invalidate the result. Read more:
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A M5.3 earthquake struck western Bangladesh earlier today. The USGS estimates that more than 150 million people in this densely populated delta experienced at least intensity IV shaking. What do we know about this earthquake, and the geology that caused it?
A M7.1 earthquake struck below northern Borneo today - a large event, but because it occurred 620 km deep, not damaging. The event raises questions: how can an earthquake occur so deep, where the rocks are hot and squishy? And why here, so far from Southeast Asia’s many subduction zones? ⚒️ 🧪
23.02.2026 01:41 — 👍 75 🔁 24 💬 7 📌 1
A line curve showing number of awards for fiscal year 2026 compared to fiscal years 2021-2025 across NSF. The fiscal year 2026 curve lies well below curves for other fiscal years.
NSF Update
Funding curve overall. A little bit of progress in the past week, but only a little bit.
Now by Directorate...
1/11
A M6.2 earthquake rattled Chile yesterday, apparently a delayed aftershock of the 2015 M8.3 Illapel earthquake. (Yes, aftershocks can continue for a decade or more!) In the meantime, Chile deployed a cutting-edge offshore fiber-optic system to monitor seismicity, which recorded this event! ⚒️ 🧪
13.02.2026 19:51 — 👍 39 🔁 13 💬 0 📌 0
This swarm in San Ramon revived yesterday, with a new burst that included a M4.2. We wrote an update, and removed the paywall from our previous post to allow broader access.
If you read our posts, please consider supporting our work by becoming a paid subscriber.
The California State University system spent $16.9 million last year giving ChatGPT to all students, faculty, and staff. We are asking the CSU chancellor not to renew the contract with OpenAI when it expires.
Anyone can sign the petition — link below!
⚒️ 🧪 A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling western Mindanao, the Philippines' 2nd-largest island. Some areas have been preemptively evacuated. The fault system here has a record of damaging, tsunamigenic earthquakes, and this swarm is unusual. So, what’s going on, and what can we say about hazard?
30.01.2026 14:40 — 👍 36 🔁 13 💬 0 📌 2
⚒️ 🧪 A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling western Mindanao, the Philippines' 2nd-largest island. Some areas have been preemptively evacuated. The fault system here has a record of damaging, tsunamigenic earthquakes, and this swarm is unusual. So, what’s going on, and what can we say about hazard?
30.01.2026 14:40 — 👍 36 🔁 13 💬 0 📌 2
A M4.1 earthquake rattled Toronto last night. Many residents of the city, who just experienced record snowfall, thought (hopefully?) that the shaking might be the rumbling of a plow.
This was the largest quake to hit the region in 20 years. Why did it happen, so far from a tectonic plate boundary?
Ah, that makes more sense! That is pretty impressive. Here is a map from the USGS showing felt responses for the Virginia earthquake - people reported intensities of II-IV in the Toronto area, which overlaps with the recent felt responses.
29.01.2026 12:03 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0A lot less! The 2011 Virginia earthquake was much larger (M5.8) and in a more populated area.
28.01.2026 22:06 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
A M4.1 earthquake rattled Toronto last night. Many residents of the city, who just experienced record snowfall, thought (hopefully?) that the shaking might be the rumbling of a plow.
This was the largest quake to hit the region in 20 years. Why did it happen, so far from a tectonic plate boundary?
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A magnitude 4.7 earthquake rattled Salt Lake City on Thursday. Although large earthquakes are (eventually) expected on the nearby Wasatch Fault, this event occurred to the east, near the intriguing Bear River Fault Zone. Was it responsible? We take a look.
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A magnitude 4.7 earthquake rattled Salt Lake City on Thursday. Although large earthquakes are (eventually) expected on the nearby Wasatch Fault, this event occurred to the east, near the intriguing Bear River Fault Zone. Was it responsible? We take a look.
Did you feel the M4.9 earthquake that struck southern California two days ago? How about its largest aftershock (M4.3)? The earthquake occurred below Joshua Tree National Park, on an unmapped fault northeast of the San Andreas. Read more:
earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m49-earthq...
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A M5.6 earthquake in northern Pakistan caused several buildings to collapse yesterday. How does this strike-slip event fit into the menagerie of Tibetan Plateau earthquakes?
earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m56-earthq...
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A M5.7 earthquake in western Japan caused minor damage yesterday, preceded by very small foreshocks in the week prior. Why did it occur here, so far from the subduction zone? What do we know about the faults in this part of Japan? And is any of this related to the nearby volcanoes?
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A M5.7 earthquake in western Japan caused minor damage yesterday, preceded by very small foreshocks in the week prior. Why did it occur here, so far from the subduction zone? What do we know about the faults in this part of Japan? And is any of this related to the nearby volcanoes?
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A M6.5 earthquake struck near Acapulco, Mexico today, triggering warning systems and causing tall buildings in Mexico City to sway. How does this event fit into the larger tectonic picture - and what kinds of earthquakes might we expect here?
earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/m65-subduc...
Some good news for the new year: the Museum of the Earth has avoided foreclosure and paid off its mortgage, thanks to the generosity of donors. If you helped, either by donating or raising awareness, please accept my personal gratitude. It mattered. ❤️
And if you ever visit Ithaca, stop by!
Did you ever wonder how Kyle and I ended up where we are - independently writing Earthquake Insights, rather than employed by a university? We talk about it in this interview with Shawn Willsey on his Youtube channel, Geology Explained.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_-G...
🚨Extremely short notice: Looking for prospective PhD or postdoc w/ geological engineering or modelling experience, w/ interests in mountain geohazards for project focused on landslide-triggered tsunamis in subarctic w/ me & @geocron.bsky.social 🧵 🧪⚒️ Pls share!
nserc-crsng.canada.ca/en/news/laun...
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A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling the Bay Area since mid-November. This is only the latest of various swarms over the last half-century. What’s going on with this swarm, and how does it compare?
(Plus, the post includes a bonus video of our cutest kitten yet!)
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A swarm of earthquakes has been rattling the Bay Area since mid-November. This is only the latest of various swarms over the last half-century. What’s going on with this swarm, and how does it compare?
(Plus, the post includes a bonus video of our cutest kitten yet!)
TL;DR: I think there is a good chance that the earthquakes presented in the Science article are just typical earthquakes that happen to look like they are migrating. But, the scenario of a large earthquake happening near Istanbul is very real, and very scary.
11.12.2025 23:00 — 👍 16 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
⚒️ 🧪 A paper in Science today highlighted a "progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul."
My thoughts on what a damaging Istanbul earthquake might look like, and whether recent earthquakes tell us something new, are in this article in the NYTimes:
However! They have FROZEN FOUNDATION FUNDS within days of the Regents' vote, despite the fact that there are commitments that have to be paid... such as student fellowships for the spring semester. Students promised employment for the spring were also abruptly notified they had none.
10.12.2025 20:41 — 👍 0 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0One graduate student just relocated his family with small children to Lincoln, and was told this week that he will in fact not be paid in the spring.
10.12.2025 20:42 — 👍 1 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
The things I am hearing about mismanagement out of @unlincoln.bsky.social are close to unbelievable, and I hope this is covered by all the news networks, from @nebpublicmedia.bsky.social to others.
Apparently they have made NO plans for handling the shutdown and elimination of departments.