John Daigle

Chiefs gained 10 yards on 7.3% (32nd) and 10.2% (20th) of their carries since 2024.

Kenneth Walker earned that amount on 14.9% (sixth) of his carries last year.

*Every* team HATES this draft.

Caleb's stats don't translate to film (outside of being able to avoid turnovers with throws that *only* his WRs can catch), which is why he usually went deep — coinflips — on 3rd down, in understanding the next play was a punt.

but I think it matters that he and Allen are weighted in this stat.

Caleb Williams had a magical season and flashed the sky, but erratically finished 40th in catchable pass rate (among 46 QBs with 100 dropbacks). Josh Allen ranked 4th.

The quality of D.J. Moore's targets will be better.

Burden was targeted on 34% of his routes without DJM on the field.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba was targeted on 33% of his routes last year.

Including the playoffs, Bears ran 148 plays with D.J. Moore off the field last year.

Target shares on those plays:

Luther Burden 22%
D'Andre Swift 14%
Colston Loveland 13%
Rome Odunze 12%

2026 WR class leaders in career YPRR vs....

Man Coverage
1. Eric McAlister (4.2)
2. Makai Lemon (3.1)*
3. Elijah Sarratt (3)
4. Jordyn Tyson (3)
5. KC Concepcion (2.5)

Zone Coverage
1. Brenen Thompson (3.7)
2. Bryce Lance (3.4)
3. Makai Lemon (3.3)*
4. Chris Hilton Jr. (3.2)
5. Chris Brazzell (3)

Colts ran hot with a league-best 3.08 pts/drive, the third-highest mark since 2020, while Daniel Jones was available.

It was (and is) unsustainable play.

Best collegiate target share season among TEs in the last three classes:

Harold Fannin 37.3%
Tyler Warren 31.4%
*Tanner Koziol 29.3%
Colston Loveland 27.9%
Oronde Gadsden 25.7%
*Eli Stowers 25%
*Max Klare 24.7%
*Sam Roush 21.5%
Brock Bowers 20%
*Kenyon Sadiq 16.3%

Career-low 8.7% target share (25th) under first-year OC Tanner Engstrand unsurprisingly resulted in a career-worst 13 PPR PPG (RB20).

Hall's encouragingly averaged 5.1 yards per touch in *every* season.

low

It can't (responsibly) be extrapolated over 17 games, but Gibbs' 27.4 PPR points without D-Mont would have netted an overall RB1 finish in every season since 2021.

Jahmyr Gibbs' career games without David Montgomery:

18-82-0
20-126-1
31-189-1
27-154-1
22-163-1
28-170-4

The 2026 @establishtherunnfl.bsky.social
Free Agency Tracker is live.

All NFL free agents and transactions (sorted by position) with a fantasy spin included:

establishtherun.com/nfl-free-age...

If it makes you feel any better, those seven TEs you're choosing from have to score a TD to separate, and even an infinite amount of time wouldn't be enough to pick the right one.

Just set the lineup and drink.

• Javonte = Davis (stash)
• Tuten = LeQuint (Week 17 stash)

• Garrett = Adonai
• Tee = Tinsley > Iosivas
• Worthy = Thornton
• Vele = Tipton
• QJ = Gadsden, Tre Harris
• Adams = Parkinson
• Fant = Gesicki
• Arroyo = Barner
• Daniels = Mariota
• Penix = Cousins
• Mahomes = Minshew
• Tyrod = Saints D/ST
• Geno = Giants D/ST
• Dimes = 49ers D/ST

Injuries to be ahead of for Week 16 waivers:

• injured player = beneficiary who is available on waivers

• Odunze = Burden
• Watson = Reed
• Benson = Bam
• Bam = Carter
• Rodriguez = JCM
• JCM = McNichols
• Marks = Jordan
• Harvey = McLaughlin
• Neal = Estime, Hull
• Garrett = Adonai

• Tee = Iosivas, Gesicki
• Justice = Keaton
• Dobbins = McLaughlin
• Parker Washington = Strange
• Higbee = Parkinson
• LaPorta = Wright
• Kincaid = Knox
• Herbert = Lance
•Rodgers = Rudolph
• Penix = Cousins
• Jayden = Mariota

Week 15:

• Tracy = Singletary

• Sampson = Ford (stash)

Injuries to be ahead of for Week 14 waivers:

• injured player = beneficiary who is available on waivers

• Kamara = Neal (not in my league, bro)
• Demercado = Benson
• Benson = Bam
• Garrett Wilson = AD
• Raymond = TeSlaa
• Reed = Wicks
• Kyren (returned) = Corum
• MHJ = Dortch

• Dart = Winston
• Penix = Cousins
• Stroud = Mills
• Jayden = Mariota
• Gabriel = Shedeur

• Garrett Wilson = AD, Metchie
• MHJ = Dortch
• Evans = Tez
• Raymond = TeSlaa
• F1, LMC, Burks, Lane = Moore
• Dobbins = McLaughlin
• Mims = Pat Bryant
• Vidal = Patterson
• Tyreek = Malik
• Waller = Dulcich
• Kincaid = Knox
• LaPorta = Wright
• Higbee = Parkinson
• Long = Strange

Injuries to be ahead of for Week 13 waivers:

• injured player = beneficiary who is available on waivers

• Kamara = Neal, Taysom
• Jeanty = Mostert
• Judkins = Sampson
• Tee = Gesicki, Iosivas
• BTJ = Parker Washington
• Demercado = Benson
• Benson = Bam
• Elic, Ridley = Dike

Discussed which of these players to target based on your roster in the (shockingly active) Week 12 Waiver Wire Show:

establishtherun.com/waiver-wire-...

• Jacobs = Brooks (stash)
• Tuten = LeQuint (stash)
• Kendre = Neal (stash)
• Perine = Tahj (stash)
• Braelon = Isaiah Davis (stash)

• Kyler = Brissett
• Dart = Winston
• Penix = Cousins
• Rodgers = Rudolph
• Stroud = Mills
• Gabriel = Shedeur
• Shedeur = Raiders D/ST

Week 13:

• Dobbins = McLaughlin
• Mims = Pat Bryant
• Vidal = Patterson
• Waller = Dulcich
• McLaurin, LMC, Burks, Lane = Moore
• Jayden = Mariota

• Evans, Godwin = Tez
• Demercado, Benson = Bam
• Dike, Elic, Ridley = Van
• Garrett Wilson = AD
• Nabers = Slayton
• Slayton = Hodgins
• Ja'Marr (suspension) = Iosivas
• Kincaid = Knox
• Kendre = Juwan
• Kraft = Musgrave
• LaPorta = Wright
• Higbee = Parkinson

Injuries to be ahead of for Week 12 waivers:

• injured player = beneficiary who is available on waivers

• Jacobs = Wilson
• MHJ = Wilson
• Bucky = Tucker
• Warren = Gainwell
• Reed = Watson
• Shakir = Shavers
• London = Mooney
• Boutte = Hollins
• BTJ = Parker Washington

which reminds me: you're awake in a few hours debating how much to bid...

establishtherun.com/waiver-wire-...

Manager in the fantasy group text just reminded everyone (at midnight ET) to try and not conceive a child this month as to avoid interfering with August's draft.

I wrote about Sean Tucker today -- something tells me I'll be there.