Trevor Larner

This was a good breakdown!

On the KC side, I think Bethune + Debinha + Sentnor is a tricky combo. I overlaid their heatmaps from last year here, and there's a lot of overlap in the middle of the park.

If your goal is to win games, this makes no sense.

If your goal is to make money by buying youth and selling them back to England in a few years, well...

Oh yes I might have misunderstood.

I do think the leagues broadcast deal is lower than the reported amounts because the league pays for production.

NWSL Announces Competition Updates Ahead of 2025 Season | News | NWSLsoccer.com All the latest NWSL news, scores, stats, standings and highlights.

It was $3.5 million www.nwslsoccer.com/news/nwsl-an...

Utterly embarrassing for the #NWSL that the winner of the #WorldSevens takes home a $2m cash prize for a three day tournament and the salary cap in the NWSL is $3.5m.

do you think Gianni is embarrassed by his whole dog and pony show

I can't remember where exactly but there was an interview clip from championship week where she talked about wanting to be like Alex and the other USWNT players who came before her and fight for what's right

I think there's enough owners who would rather have a second-tier league with lower costs than a world-class league, which sucks. I'm not sure the long-term solution to that either, even if the Rodman contract is resolved.

I think you're right, but like the PA says the Spirit could just buy out her contract and avoid any salary cap issues if their projections are off.

The league is still in the "we have to just survive a couple more years" mindset from the first years of the league. I get it. I was there. But we're like, a decade older than either of the previous leagues. Its time for us to go to a thrive mindset instead of survive.

Nah she went to Denver

This is the most optimistic post I've seen by far on the Trin news.

Gotham dragged the Spirit into a coin flip of a game and they came up lucky. There really wasn't much else to it, it just depended on who won the finishing luck.

One more game for the NWSL Championship!

The Elo model favors Gotham FC over the Washington Spirit for the title, though it is in the range of a tossup.

The model generally prefers Gotham's xG performance in the last month or so, and they get credit for winning both playoff games on the road.

Create a fucking designated player exception. This league makes me so mad sometimes.

Semi-finals for the NWSL start tomorrow! Elo sees the Washington Spirit and Gotham FC as favorites, but neither is an overwhelming favorite, so an upset is definitely possible!

NWSL Probabilities for the semi-finals and finals ⚽

KC's loss has blown the whole thing open, and Gotham are the favorites following their upset win! Each of the 4 remaining teams have decent odds to win, and there's no runaway top team at this point.

The @americansocceranalysis.com model is driven by the possession value ratings of the players in the announced XIs.

The Elo model from @trevorl.bsky.social uses team xG and raw goals from the 2025 regular season.

The model from @qebrian.bsky.social uses xG and some strength adjustments.

NWSL playoff odds using my Elo model!

Kanas City Current are unsurprisingly favored heavily, but the field is open beyond them. Look out for Racing Louisville and Gotham FC, who both have good odds if they can get past their first round matchup.

It's an average number of points over 10,000 simulations, so the numbers aren't necessarily even. The final predicted positions and probabilities are more important at this stage 😄

And here's the final NWSL table positions - Gotham in particular still has decent odds ranging from a home playoff game (15%) to going to KC in the first round (19%). Still lots to play for!

Elo NWSL predictions - only one round left!

Thorns are in the driver seat for 4th place, and the last playoff spot is 80%/20% in favor of Louisville, but some decision day intrigue is to come!

And for those curious about where each team could finish, here are the probabilities of each place #NWSL

New #NWSL Elo predictions! Playoffs are virtually locked up, but there is still jockeying for position among 3rd-8th. Orlando and Gotham FC are looking good for the home playoff games at the moment.

New #NWSL Elo predictions!

Louisville's win in the 6-point showdown against North Carolina puts their odds at 97% for the playoffs, whereas North Carolina falls to under a 1-in-4 chance.

Otherwise, the race for 3rd/4th is very close, with 3rd-7th separated by a projected 2 points.

New #NWSL Elo ratings! Louisville jump back into 8th, and Seattle's playoffs odds go above 90% despite their low rating.

Washington's odds of second are up to 95%, and Gotham is also looking strong for a home playoff game, but other slots are still up in the air among the top-9.

Gift Monday is special

#NWSL Elo predictions through week 21!

The Spirit are heavy favorites for 2nd (92%), but 3rd and 4th are still an open competition.

Further down, there are 3 teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots. Louisville has are back in 9th after two straight losses, but their playoff odds are over 50%.

New #NWSL Elo predictions through week 20! Gotham has stormed into 3rd, and the race for the top 4 remains close. North Carolina is right outside in 9th, but the rest of the pack has fallen behind.

New #NWSL Elo predictions!

Dash's big win over SD brings them into 9th and the top contender to break into the top-8. Spirit is in a good place for second (84%), but the rest of the top-4 remains wide open. Bay's playoff hopes are fading despite some strong performances post-break.