Ankit Panda

And this: "Any military engagement by Pakistan against Iran would be fraught with risk, due to widespread support for Tehran among its population, most fervently from its 40mn-strong Shia minority."

And complicated for Pakistan given the war with the Taliban.

Pakistan urges Iran not to attack Saudi Arabia Foreign minister highlights how Islamabad has a mutual defence pact with Riyadh

Interesting given the 2025 Saudi-Pakistani pact www.ft.com/content/3f67...

Kuwaiti Fighter Jet Mistakenly Shot Down American F-15s, Initial Reports Say A Kuwaiti F/A-18 fighter jet was the cause of the accidental shootdown of three American F-15s on Sunday, according to three people familiar with initial reports of the incident. One F/A-18 pilot laun...

It was a fighter! "A Kuwaiti F/A-18 fighter jet was the cause of the accidental shootdown of three American F-15s on Sunday, according to three people familiar with initial reports of the incident." www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

Per the NY Post, it's actually way dumber than that

Omg, he used the phrase!!!

"Arab countries are probably using more interceptors each day or two than America can churn out each year."

Military questioned use of makeshift office space in Kuwait where U.S. troops were killed The first American service members to die in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran were killed in an apparent Iranian drone attack on a makeshift office space in Kuwait, sources told CBS News.

This is pretty outrageous. Entirely preventable KIAs www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-st...

This is such a sick burn if you know you know.

We appear to even be saying -- so far as I can tell -- that US government employees and their dependents in those countries are on their own

SCOOP: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East, sources tell Ellen Nakashima and me

In retrospect, Macron should have had Gojira play him off after his nuclear speech.

Not psyched my feed has gone from very little @nktpnd.bsky.social to rather a lot @nktpnd.bsky.social over the past few days

More strikes on Isfahan south missile base

Ejecta from bunker buster munitions can be seen around both sets of tunnel entrances. Whether the entrances collapsed is unclear

Thanks to our friends @planet.com for the imagery

Kant: ‘Well, Well, Well, Not So Easy To Find An International Order That Doesn’t Suck Shit, Huh?’

X Will Stop Paying People for Sharing Unlabeled AI-Generated War Footage Fake war footage is a problem as old as social media. AI has just supercharged it.

AI-generated war footage is becoming a problem, X is taking a stand against it by *checks notes* demonetizing bluechecks for 90 days when they share it without a label?

OK. Good. bsky.app/profile/shoe...

The second tanker war (March 3, 2026-March 3, 2026)

(Oh, also, the tunnels are way too deep, which is why the SOF option is out there. The article doesn’t talk about this.)

Making Sense of Iran's Deterrence Failures An early appraisal of the missteps that got Iran to this point.

For more, see Ankit's recent article: panda.substack.com/p/making-sen...

Possibly keeping open for special operations efforts as this progresses to secure HEU. (Strikes could still come.)

Me in vertical video form (for those of you who like that). Pardon the mushroom cloud in the background.

Is this when the Trump administration notices that the US Navy subcontracted much of its minesweeping capabilities to the Europeans and Japanese?

I’d pull my hair out if I had any.

FWIW, the US Navy has had zero surface combatant combat* losses since the Second World War.

(* as a result of interstate combat action)

Objective risk assessors will get this right. Capitalism intersects with escalation dynamics!

I can see insurers actually dissuading the administration from this: insurers can objectively assess (still high) risk and suggest that there’d be no material benefit on margins of shipping transiting Hormuz for US to do this. (They can still opt for it as a signal to markets.)

Iran executes Khamenei’s plan to spread regional war Strikes on energy facilities and targets across Middle East form strategy devised to sow chaos in retaliation for US and Israeli attack

“We had no choice but to escalate and start a big fire so everyone would see,” the regime insider said. “When our red lines were crossed in violation of all international laws, we could no longer adhere to the rules of the game.” www.ft.com/content/02eb...

I don’t think that deters the Iranians. It’s a full on shooting war with limits quickly evaporating.

Yup.