Ankit Panda

Most striking to me: the lower level of Republican support. This is a Republican president taking military action against a country most Republicans dislike and see as a threat — and yet just 69% support it? Highlights the complete absence of any attempt to rally the public in advance of the war.

Update from Farnaz Fassihi

“Iran announced 40 days of official mourning and a seven-day national holiday to commemorate the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.” www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02...

This was exactly my first thought. And it underscores some uncertainties here, not least: who is giving these guys orders, what is on/off limits, what would make them stop, etc.? SLK being dead is important, but not decisive and it has not been for a long time.

Yikes

Iran's use of its threshold status (just short of a nuclear weapon) as a virtual deterrent has comprehensively failed.

States without a reliable nuclear ally will be more apt to see the development of a nuclear capability as a binary delusion: go for nukes or don't.

I just have to wonder what's going through the minds of the North Korean diplomats posted in Tehran right now.

Meanwhile, more propaganda from North Korea positioning KJA alongside her father as capable of tactical prowess. www.nknews.org/2026/02/kim-...

Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would...

And there's this from earlier. I guess we find out now. Though ... I imagine the Israelis have targeted plausible hardline successors, too. www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Ali Khamenei assassinated in Iran, Israeli officials told | The Jerusalem Post The body of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader since 1989, was reportedly found under the rubble in Tehran. His death marks a major turning point for the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

"Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated in an Israeli strike on Tehran, with his body found under the rubble caused by an Israeli airstrike, senior Israeli officials were informed on Saturday evening." www.jpost.com/middle-east/...

ICYMI: NK military modernization and lessons from Ukraine are reshaping deterrence. KEI hosted @nktpnd.bsky.social y.social, Vann Van Diepen, Rachel Minyoung Lee for a discussion moderated by @ariusderr.bsky.social on what this means for the U.S.-ROK alliance.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BbqL...

France warns against risk of nuclear proliferation Arms control treaties are expiring and countries are looking to develop their own arsenals in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, a French official tells reporters.

France warns against risk of nuclear proliferation www.politico.eu/article/fran...

Fun fact:

The Mk28 warhead was one of the Eisenhower hydronuclear tests during the moratoria.

Supposedly reduced probability of a Mk28 producing a nuclear yield during the 1966 Palomares accident by 3 orders of magnitude (!!!!):

large.stanford.edu/courses/2018...

Delighted to review @nktpnd.bsky.social's excellent and important book The New Nuclear Age for Ethics and International Affairs #nukesky www.cambridge.org/core/service...

Exclusive: US intelligence agencies tie Chinese explosive test to push for a completely new nuclear arsenal | CNN Politics US intelligence agencies believe that China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons and has conducted at least one covert explosive test in recent years as part of a broader push to complete...

I need to write a follow-up on this. FWIW, there’s also this out there. www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/p...

Good take. Was recently discussing the pitfalls of conventional targeting of possibly non-one-point-safe dual-capable systems with nuclear warheads (pro-tip: you want them to be one-point safe; don’t want unexpected NUDETs).

North Korean Missile Precision Improvements and the Russo-Ukrainian War A quick point on improvements in the Hwasong-11A (and other North Korean missiles).

I wrote up a short set of observations on how the lethality of North Korea's tactical nuclear delivery platforms has benefited from its material support for Russia in its war on Ukraine: panda.substack.com/p/north-kore...

Wonder if this will stick through to the upcoming NPT Review Conference: Russia accuses Ukraine of seeking to acquire nuclear weapon with help from UK and France www.reuters.com/world/europe...

"US intelligence agencies believe that China is developing a new generation of nuclear weapons" www.cnn.com/2026/02/21/p...

Mark S. Bell reviews 'THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE' for Ethics & International Affairs: “The New Nuclear Age is excellent and should be widely read.” Do give his full review a read.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

We now have a slide from @UnderSecT on the suspicious event at Lop Nor in China. One can see how much smaller this event is than the earthquakes selected for comparison by looking at the noise prior to the start of the event.

If Trump Wants to Meet Kim Again, He’s Got One Big Opportunity in Early 2026 The president should use the upcoming State of the Union address to offer North Korea a new, concrete vision for engagement and reducing nuclear risks.

I have a new article for @carnegieendowment.org: If Trump still wants to engage North Korea, he should make it clear at next year's state of the union. The US should adopt a "stable coexistence" framework. Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Does the AI/Nuclear Weapons Analogy Really Make Sense? If so, where does it? What are the limitations?

Nukesletter is back on Substack: I share a short essay I wrote on the analogies often drawn between the dawn of the nuclear age and the current conversations around transformation AI. There are limits, but some useful comparisons. panda.substack.com/p/does-the-a...

Behind Trump’s truce with China Allies are trying to work out if the administration is pursuing a tactical détente related to rare earths or if it is placing less emphasis on security issues

Behind Trump’s truce with China www.ft.com/content/12a6...

Mexico hit by wave of violence after security forces kill cartel leader Death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel boss ‘El Mencho’ follows US calls for action against traffickers

"Residents in Guadalajara, Jalisco’s state capital and a host city for the 2026 World Cup, reported at least 30 incidents of shoot-outs and roadblocks on Sunday" www.ft.com/content/55fa...

Iran agreed secret shoulder-fired missile deal with Russia Leaks reveal €500mn contract for man-portable ‘Verba’ system to rebuild Tehran’s air defences

"Iran agreed a secret €500mn arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles in its most significant effort to rebuild air defences shattered during last year’s war with Israel." www.ft.com/content/d034...

"India is also looking to buy long range missiles and loitering ammunition, which can be launched by air, ground and sea beyond the air defence system of enemy nations."

(LORA and Ice Breaker, specifically, per this report.)

India to explore anti-ballistic missile defence with Israel While both countries are expected to sign an MoU on security cooperation, no defence deal will be signed. | World News

"India is exploring joint development of anti-ballistic missile defence with Israel" www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/p...

The blob can't fail. It can only be failed.

And yet we're about to bomb the Middle East again. Explain that.

ANN: Inaugural William Burr Prize in Nuclear History (Deadline: April 1, 2026)

networks.h-net.org/group/announ...