You know, I do think there should be more public dialogue about nuclear weapons in a world where stockpiles are expanding and arms control is all but gone. But not like this, man come on
#Nukesky
@nktpnd.bsky.social
Stanton Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; Author of ‘THE NEW NUCLEAR AGE’ (Polity) & ‘KIM JONG UN AND THE BOMB’ (Hurst/Oxford) Subscribe to my newsletter (Nukesletter): https://panda.substack.com/
You know, I do think there should be more public dialogue about nuclear weapons in a world where stockpiles are expanding and arms control is all but gone. But not like this, man come on
#Nukesky
I contain multitudes, Matt!
04.03.2026 23:46 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0(Genuinely surprised this is getting any engagement.)
04.03.2026 23:43 — 👍 13 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Imminentize the eschaton.
04.03.2026 23:41 — 👍 102 🔁 10 💬 3 📌 3Good plan, there’s no way that the US would ever betray Kurds who fought on their behalf, or that Turkey would be upset by and seek to frustrate any US-backed Kurdish forces, or that an invasion from Iraq would trigger Iranian nationalist opposition. None of those things have ever happened.
04.03.2026 21:42 — 👍 674 🔁 209 💬 27 📌 11Iran made several missteps in its deterrence strategy in the leadup to war. @nktpnd.bsky.social broke them down: youtube.com/shorts/KX1Vh...
03.03.2026 19:12 — 👍 11 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 2Jeremy Weinstein, dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, gives admitted members of the miltary the option to defer for several years, but also arranges expedited review of their application at other schools if they don't want to postpone, in response to Hegseth's foolish Harvard cutoff.
04.03.2026 23:25 — 👍 13 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 1"Cheongung-II (M-SAM) was deployed in combat in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and intercepted multiple Iranian missiles, it was revealed on the 3rd. This marks the first instance where South Korea’s exported weapon system has been deployed in combat" www.chosun.com/english/nati...
04.03.2026 22:49 — 👍 52 🔁 10 💬 0 📌 2I have a pit in my stomach thinking through the many ways in which this goes very, very wrong.
04.03.2026 21:49 — 👍 110 🔁 20 💬 10 📌 0These quotes are actually very revealing about modern American civil-military relations
04.03.2026 20:03 — 👍 383 🔁 50 💬 11 📌 0A bar chart showing results to the following survey question: Based on what you know, how likely is it that US military action against Iran will spark a broader regional war? Likely: 71% overall, 65% Republicans, 84% Democrats, 68% Independents Unlikely: 25% overall, 33% Republicans, 16% Democrats, 26% Independents From a Chicago Council on Global Affairs/Ipsos poll fielded February 27-March 1, 2026, among a random national sample of 1,018 adults.
New @global-affairs.bsky.social /@ipsosus.bsky.social poll finds that most Americans—including majorities across party lines—see US strikes on Iran as likely leading to a wider regional war.
Full analysis with my colleagues @roguepollster.bsky.social and Lama El Baz: bit.ly/4b1tg2N
Macron's speech available in English now. The official translation is "forward deterrence." us.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/speech-pr...
04.03.2026 20:15 — 👍 9 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0We had a very good set of questions about alliances and extended deterrence, which I was happy to answer frankly. It matters what kind of country the United States chooses to be.
04.03.2026 19:47 — 👍 7 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0(Very fun to ask cadets about the Kuwaiti Hornet-on-F-15 action on the sidelines.)
04.03.2026 19:44 — 👍 24 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Enjoyed speaking to a very inquisitive group of US Air Force Academy cadets today on the more dangerous and complex nuclear environment facing the United States.
04.03.2026 19:34 — 👍 42 🔁 2 💬 2 📌 0This was a very enjoyable deep dive on the state of AI-nuclear discourse and the analogy often drawn between transformative AI and the bomb.
04.03.2026 19:25 — 👍 13 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0thanks to @nktpnd.bsky.social for talking to me about the current obsession with seeing AI as nuclear weapons. A strange and useful (?) metaphor
04.03.2026 18:38 — 👍 20 🔁 5 💬 4 📌 1
I think war is serious business, real life-and-death stuff, and should be taken seriously by people who initiate and prosecute it.
Sorry to get so partisan, but that’s how I feel.
Consistent with a latency approach. bsky.app/profile/nuke...
04.03.2026 13:56 — 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Restarting tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be quick even with US military escorts and government insurance schemes, experts tell the FT www.ft.com/content/e006...
04.03.2026 07:20 — 👍 133 🔁 39 💬 8 📌 3The USAF test-launched a Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg into the Pacific. The missile carried three unarmed Mk12A reentry vehicles for the 335-kiloton W78 warhead. The MIRV test comes as US is considering increasing deployed warheads. www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/News/Article...
04.03.2026 12:58 — 👍 50 🔁 26 💬 6 📌 6And this: "Any military engagement by Pakistan against Iran would be fraught with risk, due to widespread support for Tehran among its population, most fervently from its 40mn-strong Shia minority."
04.03.2026 03:17 — 👍 20 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0And complicated for Pakistan given the war with the Taliban.
04.03.2026 03:14 — 👍 19 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Interesting given the 2025 Saudi-Pakistani pact www.ft.com/content/3f67...
04.03.2026 03:12 — 👍 29 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 1It was a fighter! "A Kuwaiti F/A-18 fighter jet was the cause of the accidental shootdown of three American F-15s on Sunday, according to three people familiar with initial reports of the incident." www.wsj.com/livecoverage...
04.03.2026 02:37 — 👍 26 🔁 7 💬 5 📌 2Per the NY Post, it's actually way dumber than that
03.03.2026 23:54 — 👍 177 🔁 17 💬 9 📌 8Omg, he used the phrase!!!
04.03.2026 00:34 — 👍 59 🔁 7 💬 3 📌 0"Arab countries are probably using more interceptors each day or two than America can churn out each year."
03.03.2026 21:44 — 👍 43 🔁 20 💬 4 📌 0This is pretty outrageous. Entirely preventable KIAs www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-st...
03.03.2026 21:58 — 👍 44 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0This is such a sick burn if you know you know.
03.03.2026 14:10 — 👍 177 🔁 18 💬 4 📌 0