John Nilsson-Wright

YouTube video by Centre for Geopolitics On Geopolitics Currents - Episode 2: Trump and the Fourth Estate

Great discussion with Steve Herman, @newsguy.bsky.social , until recently VOA’s chief national correspondent, abou the threats to press freedom, personal liberty and the Open Society in #Trump's America.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3291...

Corporation for Public Broadcasting Will Shut Down

Corporation for Public Broadcasting Will Shut Down www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

A further effort by Trump to muzzle the media. For more on this see:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=3291...

YouTube video by Centre for Geopolitics On Geopolitics Currents - Episode 2: Trump and the Fourth Estate

Great discussion with Steve Herman, @newsguy.bsky.social , until recently VOA’s chief national correspondent, abou the threats to press freedom, personal liberty and the Open Society in #Trump's America.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=3291...

KOIZUMI Shinjiro: young, popular
TAKAICHI Sanae: maintain conservative block
KOBAYASHI Takayuki - contender in last presidential election & has support
HAYASHI Yoshimasa & KATO Katsonobu: potential for working well with opposition
Unclear who delivers best on all 3 criteria

Key criteria for future LDP leader & PM:
1. Managing relations with Opposition parties
2. Keeping conservatives and Abe old guard within LDP and avoiding party split
3. Ability to deliver a win in the next Lower House election

【解説人語】首相退陣論、強まる圧力　「ポスト石破」3つのポイント：朝日新聞 参院選で大敗した石破茂首相（自民党総裁）の進退が焦点になっています。23日には、麻生太郎、菅義偉両元首相、岸田文雄前首相の首相経験者3氏との異例の会談もありました。　会談後、記者団の取材に応じた石破…

www.asahi.com/articles/AST...

Excellent video explainer of Ishiba’s problems, including results of his meeting yesterday with Suga, Aso and Kishida - none of whom were prepared to endorse his continuation as PM. Race for successor likely to kick off in 2nd half of August.

［社説］国政の停滞回避へ石破首相は進退判断を - 日本経済新聞 自民党内で石破茂首相（党総裁）の辞任を求める声が強まってきた。経済や外交など国政に停滞は許されず、政権運営にこのまま展望が開けないのであれば首相は進退を判断すべきだ。参院選で自民党は大敗し、公明党と合わせた議席で衆院に続いて参院でも過半数を失った。首相は自公で過半数の議席確保を「必達目標」としていたにもかかわらず、比較第1党として「国政に停滞を招かない」と続投を表明した。そう断言するのなら首

#Ishiba has ltd room for manoeuvre and no obvious path for governing. Prefectural party chapters demanding resignation & looking to convene joint LDP house convention to vote against PM. Also, key opposition party heads (Ishin, DPFP, CDP) won’t coop w/ LDP

www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...

The first in our new On Geopolitics podcasts is out. With @suzanneraine.bsky.social offering her dispassionate and historically informed perspective, we talk to Nobukatsu Kanehara, one of Japan’s leading strategic thinkers.

Ishiba now claiming that he needs to stay on as PM to avoid a split within the LDP. From completing the trade deal with the US to maintaining party unity, the rationale for staying shifts at time when public support for the LDP has dropped to 19%. Ishiba: clever tactician or politically obstinate?

Ishiba now publicly pushing back against local news reports that he intends to resign. With local chapters of the LDP expressing discontent and rumours of pressure from senior figures in party to encourage/force his resignation hard to determine where the balance of truth lies.

Rice element of agreement will be very politically sensitive, given relationship to national identity issues & strength of farming lobby. Ishiba’s meeting today w/ former PMS, Aso, Suga & Kishida will shape timetable for resignation. Possible successors including Sanae Takaichi already positioning.

Expect opposition parties to welcome avoidance of 25% tariff but raise concerns about 15% level - still very high and notably different from Japan’s original negotiating position of holding out for zero tariffs.

How this plays locally & whether it can be sold as success or capitulation by LDP leadership will affect standing of gvt.

Trade announcement with US appears to allow for substantial US rice, agricultural and auto imports into Japan & requires Japanese $550 billion financing incentives for Japanese firms investing in US, but w 15% tariffs on Japanese exports to US and 50% on steel & aluminium exports to US.

Reporting on this is mixed, with some outlets suggesting actual resignation may come in August. Key will be Ishiba’s meeting later today with senior party officials, including former PMs. Hard to see Ishiba lasting more than a few weeks and starting gun now fired on next LDP election.

石破首相退陣へ、月内にも表明する方向で調整…関税協議の妥結踏まえ意向固める 【読売新聞】　石破首相（自民党総裁）は２３日、米国の関税措置を巡る日米協議が妥結したことを踏まえ、退陣する意向を固め、周辺に伝えた。月内にも退陣を表明する方向だ。２０日投開票の参院選で自民、公明両党が惨敗した後、首相は続投を表明した

#Japan's PM #Ishiba announces intention to resign w/in month, following breakthrough in trade talks w/ #US. This was inevitable, given need to take responsibility for 3 electoral defeats: metropolitan, lower & upper house elections

www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/202...

「タブーが消え、ポピュリストの波がきた」　英有識者がみる参院選：朝日新聞 20日の参院選では、与党である自民党と公明党が大敗し、国民民主党や参政党が議席を伸ばしました。国外の有識者には、この状況はどう見えるのか。日本の現代政治に詳しい英ケンブリッジ大のジョン・ニルソンライ…

www.asahi.com/articles/AST... My thoughts on the recent Japanese Upper House election, courtesy of Asahi Shinbun

Episode 54: What just happened? Podcast Episode · On Geopolitics · 09/07/2025 · 44m

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...
@suzanneraine.bsky.social and Ali Ansari pass the baton to @wjhurst.bsky.social and me for our @camgeopolitics.bsky.social regular podcast. A very tough act to follow.

Our video recording of @frankjannuzi.bsky.social wonderful talk on #US-#Japan-#ROK trilateral relations is now available. All made possible thanks to the support of the Korea Foundation-한국국제교류재단 www.cfg.cam.ac.uk/events/cambr...

Looking forward to welcoming @frankjannuzi.bsky.social CEO of the Maureen &Mike Mansfield Foundation to Cambridge today to talk on the subject of US-ROK-Japan trilateralism at @camgeopolitics.bsky.social part of our Korea Foundation special seminar series.

www.cfg.cam.ac.uk/events/cambr...

It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington The Trump administration has eviscerated the expert class that generated alternative views in its best moments, and engaged in groupthink at its worst.

McCarthyism on steroids. This is arguably far worse than the 1950s since the driver of this movement is not a senator from Wisconsin but the entire executive branch, directed by #Trump and assisted by a supine Republican congress. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...

Governor Gavin Newsom on X: "[FULL ADDRESS] Governor Newsom addresses Californians in response to President Trump’s assault on democracy and the President’s illegal militarization of Los Angeles. https://t.co/8Md1TFJbRm" / X [FULL ADDRESS] Governor Newsom addresses Californians in response to President Trump’s assault on democracy and the President’s illegal militarization of Los Angeles. https://t.co/8Md1TFJbRm

x.com/cagovernor/s... A bold and necessary statement.

Opinion | The Democrats’ Problems Are Bigger Than You Think

A stimulating piece, partly right in focusing on social elitism &frustration of populist voters who feel alienated & denied agency. But the toughest challenge for Dems is defining an agenda that’s both revolutionary & constructive. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/05/o...

🗨️"The challenge for #SouthKorea’s new president will be bringing a deeply divided country back together. That said, #Lee Jae-myung enters office with a strong mandate."

👉 @cam.ac.uk‬’s @jnilssonwright.bsky.social

📺Full show: www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/...

@en.france24.com

Exit polls show #Lee Jae-myung with decisive lead over #Kim Moon-soo by 51.7% to 39.3%

First exit polls due in just over ten minutes now from presidential contest in #SouthKorea. High turnout rates at around 77%, and especially from historically progressive Jeolla region. May bode well for #Lee Jae-myung.

Opinion | The Trump Administration Is Trying to Unravel One of Our Greatest National Accomplishments

A beautifully written piece, highlighting the vital role of teachers & of education in general and, sadly, the destructive role of #Trump. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/o...

The US-Japan alliance – its past, present and unclear future As Trump’s aggressive trade agenda collides with Japan’s strategic anxieties, the future of East Asia’s most vital relationship hangs in the balance.

As Trump’s aggressive trade agenda collides with Japan’s strategic anxieties, the future of East Asia’s most vital relationship hangs in the balance.

The US-Japan alliance – its past, present and unclear future | @jnilssonwright.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...

The US-Japan alliance – its past, present and unclear future As Trump’s aggressive trade agenda collides with Japan’s strategic anxieties, the future of East Asia’s most vital relationship hangs in the balance.

Some reflections on the past, present and future state of #US-#Japan relations.

engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-u...

Opinion | Trump Is Waging War on the Future

“Reactionary futurism” neatly captures the perverse focus of #Trump's use of nostalgia and non falsifiable violent millenarian anti-Enlightenment ideas to appeal to his angry supporters. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/o...