Dimitri Perrin

And it's posted! If you're interested and eligible, please consider applying through the UMD portal: umd.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/UMCP/j....

If you're a PI working in algorithmic genomics (& you can recommend my lab to your top graduating students ;P), please let them know!

It depends how we define fairness. Does a fair draw give teams an equal chance of reaching the round of 16 (irrespective of their strength), or does it give them a probability that is as close as possible to their strength? And do we maximise average fairness, or minimise the largest unfairness?

Yes, I’ve noticed that it is what you have done, but I wasn’t sure what made it fair. It makes being ranked 6th the best possible ranking (assuming that the rankings actually reflect team strength).

It depends what you mean by fair. Is it about giving relatively weaker teams a leg up, to increase competition, or is it about rewarding higher ranked teams?

You’re very welcome. Pre-ordered and all set to dive into it once it drops.

Back to square one? If everyone is special, no one is.

Australia dropped to 7th, but looking at a single week does not give you the whole picture. You need to look at all possible results, so it is time to update the rankings simulations. Everything is still to play for, not just for the TRC. open.substack.com/pub/dimitrip...

This should be a good read. I’m looking forward to it.

It might have been Jonathan Drennan’s SMH article. It was pretty good, but missing the impact of the sequence of results as well as the results from the other teams. That’s where the simulation tool becomes handy. It captures all games, rather than just the Wallabies.

On one of your last points, on the impact on the rankings and a top-6 seeding for the World Cup, I have updated the little tool I wrote last week, and it is still far from certain. Even beating Argentina twice would not guarantee it: bsky.app/profile/dper...

A win for the ages, but it does not guarantee top 6 Still a long road ahead before Australia gets a top seed for the World Cup draw

I have updated my simulations to include the two results from the weekend. Great win for the Wallabies, but consistency will be key to get a top-6 seeding. It is still far from certain: open.substack.com/pub/dimitrip...

a man in an orange shirt says " thank you " to another man ALT: a man in an orange shirt says " thank you " to another man

Thanks!

Thanks! ☺️

The race for ranking points and a good RWC draw A simulation-based look into the next few months of international rugby

First post on substack. I’ve had a look at World Rugby rankings, and what they might look like by the time they really matter (when the RWC draw is made). It’s there: open.substack.com/pub/dimitrip...

Congrats! 🎉

@saramostafavi.bsky.social (@Genentech) & I (@Stanford) r excited to announce co-advised postdoc positions for candidates with deep expertise in ML for bio (especially sequence to function models, causal perturbational models & single cell models). See details below. Pls RT 1/

I’ve also been tracking selections and minutes (but don’t have it on my phone). I’ll check later.

I’ll probably run out of time before the Super Rugby season ends, but I might try something later. Worst case, it’s ready for next season.

There may be a way to do it in a way that is public friendly. I had something related for baseball, but without the idea of visualising it as the ladder itself. (though perhaps not the best example in terms of ease of interpretation; it can be improved)

It takes a bit of scrolling, but the Super Rugby website has a list of injured players for each round.

An alternative could be to look at stability of the 23 week to week, as rotation can be enforced (injuries) or voluntary (Leinster, or Brumbies round 1 on a smaller scale).

Very nice indeed! For extra points, lighter background and the horizontal bar is a colour gradient based on the probability of each position for that team. 😁

Nice write up. Your last point on cohesion from 2024 into 2025 is important. I’ve looked at the impact for the last RWC, and it was quite striking (that will hopefully be out soon; writing in progress). For SRP, the impact of injuries on the cohesion week to week (or lack thereof) further adds to it

I can't emphasize how important this is. If you are not an expert or able to check AI outputs you cannot use them safely.

To add to this conversation here is recent work from Anthropic showing that REASONING models are NOT FAITHFUL

mini 🧵

(🔭🧪)

www.anthropic.com/research/rea...

The numbers don’t lie – why Super Rugby is the best club comp in the world A rugby-loving French data scientist has examined the figures and found that Super Rugby is superior to its European counterparts.

It was a pleasure to talk to @paulcully.bsky.social a few days ago about my analysis of the Super Rugby Pacific season. His article is now up on the Sydney Morning Herald website: www.smh.com.au/sport/the-nu...

I'm planning to attend #ISMBECCB2025 in Liverpool in July and will spend a few days in London beforehand (July 16-19).

If you are around then, let's get coffee? Or invite me to visit your institution?

Matt Faessler: ‘To be involved in a home World Cup would be just next level’ While Queensland Reds are focused on finessing their playing style in SRP, big rewards loom on the horizon for the Australia hooker.

Great to speak with Queensland Reds hooker Matt Faessler for this week's @rugbypass.bsky.social column.

- Agrees the Reds are yet to show their best in SRP this season
- Cannot wait for the Lions Series - but is battling to not think about it

www.rugbypass.com/plus/matt-fa...

May 1 we launch this great new tool that allows rugby teams to code games live, track their season and compare themselves to their peers around the world!

Marketed by The Rugby Site, the app is available to all for a yearly subscription.

3 and 7 points for games that finished within a penalty or within a try (as it means they’re in balance until the end). 25 points was a completely arbitrary choice.

It was a post on instagram. I haven’t seen any proper news release on their website.

The URLs are broken for some reason (still waiting on RugbyPass to fix them), but the figures are those reported by Super Rugby

The raw data that proves Super Rugby Pacific is currently a cut above To appreciate how unique the 2025 Super Rugby Pacific season has been, we need to look at other seasons and other competitions.

Everyone is excited about the Super Rugby Pacific season, but why has it been so good? I have crunched some numbers to find out, and you can read about it on RugbyPass here: www.rugbypass.com/news/the-raw...