Dimitri Perrin

A quick guide to not getting overly excited (or panicked) Super Rugby is about to start, and the schedule can hide team strength early on

Super Rugby is about to start, and the schedule can hide team strength early on, so here is a quick guide about how not to get too excited (or too worried). open.substack.com/pub/dimitrip...

Queensland Reds players warming up before their game

New season about to start, and just like the players tuning up in today’s pre-season game, we are also preparing some exciting things on the data front.

If you want to be part of it, get in touch! We have a targeted call for PhD Scholarships for domestic students: www.qut.edu.au/study/fees-a...

Great news!

Liffey River, Dublin, Ireland

Hello there, Dublin. Long time no see!

Don’t wreck the place, I’m landing on Friday! 😬

I’ll miss the show (like a lot of other people), but I’ll follow what comes next. Now the question you posted earlier takes a different meaning!

For today I’ve kept things simple: the higher-ranked team wins. We have two years to be build more sophisticated models. 😅

Thanks. It was a lunch break well spent earlier today.

B.B. King & Ray Charles must have been great! I've heard B.B King live, but not seen him (I was outside the open-air venue when he played at the Jazz à Juan Festival).

GitHub - SystemsResearch/rwc2027_draw_analysis: Analysis of the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup Analysis of the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Contribute to SystemsResearch/rwc2027_draw_analysis development by creating an account on GitHub.

I’ve released the code, in case you could need it: github.com/SystemsResea...

The permutation selection is in the Round of 16 section of the notebook.

Samoa also has the easiest draw of all band-4 teams. Of course, it will only matter if they improve, but they have a great opportunity, given how much worse it could have been.

For each set of four best third-ranked teams, there is a unique permutation.

Same here. QF1: New Zealand vs South Africa; QF2: Fiji vs France; QF3: Australia vs England; QF4: Argentina vs Ireland.

So, what do we make of that Rugby World Cup draw? Two years out, which set of supporters should be most excited? (spoiler: all of them, it's the World Cup!)

My analysis of the draw is up. Read on to see who got the easiest or toughest draw, and why we might have a South Africa v England final. #RWC2027draw #RWC2027
open.substack.com/pub/dimitrip...

They are… 🥱

My plan is to have an analysis of the pools within a few minutes of the draw. All the code is ready. I just need them to start the draw! #RWC2027Draw

Introduce yourself with five concerts you’ve seen

Air
Bell X1
Gemma Hayes
Ryuichi Sakamoto
U2

Australian teams need more games. The new Super Rugby Aus competition provides some opportunities. If cost was no object, I’d like to see it longer (as well as going full home-and-away for SRP).

Super Rugby Pacific is only 16 rounds of regular season, with two byes per team, so 17 games if you make the final. That’s 31 total with the internationals.

Sydney coastline, viewed from the plane as we approached the airport

Photo from the auditorium before the opening session started.

Just arrived in Sydney for the ADSN conference, hosted by @sydneyprecisionds.bsky.social. If you’re here too, let’s catch up during the breaks.

Our Centre is represented on all 3 days. Today, you’ll hear from our members during the “fast-forward” presentations and the poster session.

Almost 20 years across the two countries. It leaves a mark. 😅

Just arrived in London. So far, two English jerseys and five South African ones.
Now to find a good place to watch the games. Any recommendations near Wimbledon? Ideally somewhere that would have decent numbers of Irish and/or Australian, so that I’m not alone cheering for these two teams.

Big win, I think I have the whole row to myself!

The flight from Brisbane to Perth was fine, but it was the easy part.

So far today, I have spent longer in airports than in the air, but it is all about to change with a massive 18-hour flight from Perth to London. Wish me luck! 😴

@bmcsport.bsky.social, @89combo.bsky.social: this could be of interest as you look at the next four weekends☝🏻

Australia’s path to a top seed for the RWC draw If the Wallabies can't win all games, how many are enough?

I have looked at Australia’s path to a top seed for the RWC draw. If they can’t win all games, how many are enough?
open.substack.com/pub/dimitrip...

Off to the UK, where the weather probably won’t be great, so Brisbane has decided to help my transition (from yesterday’s 38.5°C) by making this morning wet and miserable. Sorry everyone, it might be my fault.

Yeah, I still need coffee, but at least I’m not crazy. Have a good flight.

I’m working on an update of my rankings simulator, to look more closely at the path to a top-6 for the Wallabies. Now that they have “only” four games left, it is more manageable to look at specific combinations of results. I should be able to post that later today.