Noahpinion

Will data centers crash the economy? This time let's think about a financial crisis before it happens.

Will data centers crash the economy?

The only thing worse than sweatshops is no sweatshops Poor countries have to get rich somehow. This is the tried-and-true method.

The only thing worse than sweatshops is no sweatshops

Xi Jinping is the main thing holding China back If the Chinese Century underwhelms, it'll be partly due to a single man.

Xi Jinping is the main thing holding China back

Should Democrats go back to neoliberalism? To some degree, yes. But what they really need is a development state.

Should Democrats go back to neoliberalism?

The anti-immigration backlash comes to Japan It was always bound to happen.

The anti-immigration backlash comes to Japan

At least five interesting things: Bad Policy edition (#67) ICE backlash; progressive bumbling; antisocial Americans; bad inflation data; the Roaring 20s; AI politics; China vs. America

At least five interesting things: Bad Policy edition (#67)

Trump is enabling Chinese power An incompetent, selfish, inwardly focused administration is making America less of an obstacle to China's rise.

Trump is enabling Chinese power

Developing countries: A follow-up Checking in on some countries I wrote about a few years back.

Developing countries: A follow-up

Free-market economics is working surprisingly well Which economic approach works depends a lot on where you start from.

Free-market economics is working surprisingly well

At least five interesting things: It Isn't That Bad edition (#66) U.S. wage growth; fertility and sexism; construction costs and house prices; the next financial crisis; macroeconomics vs. microeconomics;

At least five interesting things: It Isn't That Bad edition (#66)

The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis A repost from the Noahpinion archives, with a few updates.

The Elite Overproduction Hypothesis

We can't afford to keep cutting taxes for the rich Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is an advanced stage of a disease that took hold long ago.

We can't afford to keep cutting taxes for the rich

Would you rather have cheap energy, or stupid culture wars? Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is an attack on American energy production.

Would you rather have cheap energy, or stupid culture wars?

The dawn of the posthuman age Between new technology and low fertility, our existence as a species is not going to be the same.

The dawn of the posthuman age

A chat with Derek Thompson One of my favorite writers has joined Substack! Let's see what he has to say.

A chat with Derek Thompson

China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem China is paying its national champions to fight each other to the death.

China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem

Western democracies are actually pretty good at war The authoritarian advantage is hype. But China is the real deal.

Western democracies are actually pretty good at war

Feeling cautiously optimistic about American democracy This is still the country I grew up in.

Feeling cautiously optimistic about American democracy

Social media destroyed one of America's key advantages We used to be able to spread out. Now we're locked in with each other.

Social media destroyed one of America's key advantages

At least five interesting things: Anything but protests edition (#65) Government efficiency; Solar power; Data suppression; American wealth; Trade and manufacturing

At least five interesting things: Anything but protests edition (#65)

A bunch of thoughts and evidence on immigration I've been writing about this for a while.

A bunch of thoughts and evidence on immigration

It's OK not to be fat Instead of moral problems, let's think of things like obesity as technological problems.

It's OK not to be fat

How Chinese drones could defeat America A Ukrainian drone attack shows our extreme vulnerability.

How Chinese drones could defeat America

The anti-economists have overreached Before you criticize something, at least try to understand it.

The anti-economists have overreached

Service costs aren't exploding anymore Another common economic narrative that's out of date.

Service costs aren't exploding anymore

The Age of Twitter is finally ending. Can Substack take its place? Some thoughts on the future of the media.

The Age of Twitter is finally ending. Can Substack take its place?

Memorial Day chat with Matt Yglesias A recording from Noah Smith's live video

Memorial Day chat with Matt Yglesias

At least five interesting things: Stubborn optimism edition (#64) YIMBY wins; America calming down; Biotech miracles; Progress in education; The good kind of nationalism

At least five interesting things: Stubborn optimism edition (#64)

Shops make a city great The missing piece in our urbanist discussion.

Shops make a city great

Is the U.S. in a "high-level equilibrium trap"? When countries start fearing the future, they stagnate.

Is the U.S. in a "high-level equilibrium trap"?