Lucas Warwar

It's funny to me when people who love to go on about second order effects of economic policies and the challenges of central planning without local knowledge suddenly drop all of that when it comes to foreign policy.

who could have imagined

“The company also has some of the lowest employee turnover rates in the retail industry, driven in part by offering wages above its competitors”.

The ‘missing intercept’ problem with going from micro to macro Many applied microeconomics papers conclude with a back-of-the-envelope calculation that scales their cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level. These types of aggregate estimates are only vali...

Earlier this year, Ben Moll & I wrote about the missing intercept problem in economics.

It ended up being @voxdev.bsky.social's most read article released in 2025!

Learn about the problem with scaling cross-sectional estimates to the aggregate level ⤵️ voxdev.org/topic/method...

The economy is a paranormal entity that our greatest dimensional scholars (macroeconomists) understand only superficially. They have induced a variety of changes in it by manipulating arcane forces like "money supply" with some success. But it remains protean and unpredictable.

The networks of economists who frequently show up in the Economic Report of the President.

What stands out to you?

One of these is not like the others and it represents a dangerous new expansion in Trump's tariff adventures, meddling in internal criminal matters in other countries.

The “marathon” part of doing a PhD continues to be the easiest one. Now, off to winter break at home.

Fascinating paper on where 6000 global elites went to college. Billionaires, CEOs, heads of state, central bankers, etc.

In a word: Harvard.

Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard.

🧵

Astonishing reminder that I live and work among a very non random sample of the population.

To all the new #EconSky people whi may be dealing with the Econ Job Market:

*There is an #EconJMP feed
*I have a PhD Job Market Starter Pack go.bsky.app/4icnwxi. If you are a candidate or an institution posting *many* openings, reach out and I will add you.

I’ve made a Women in Econ starter pack (s/o @vinisingh.bsky.social for sparking the idea!). Share, follow, and comment below if you’d like to be added! go.bsky.app/LqBPkQZ

Soon enough NYT reporters will need to get "sources from the army"

Let me put it this way: in Brazil, we lived for a couple of decades in the “I’ve never heard the name of the head of the Army” land that Americans take for granted. Then Bolsonaro dragged us to the world of “General X would probably join a coup, but I guess General Y wouldn’t”. Not a good place…

Making a Starter Pack for Econ and Econ-Adjacent PhD students. DM or comment to be added! go.bsky.app/QnmW5VP

Me!!!

Deep Learning for Economists (Forthcoming Article) - Deep learning provides powerful methods to impute structured information from large-scale, unstructured text and image datasets. For example, economists might wish to detect th...

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Deep Learning for Economists" by Melissa Dell. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

‘It’s guerrilla warfare’: Brazil fire teams fight Amazon blazes – and the arsonists who start them Firefighters and police in Rondônia battle fires intensified by both the climate crisis and a criminal assault on the rainforest

I’ve spent the last week traveling through the Amazon to witness the extreme drought & wildfires wreaking havoc across Brazil. Here’s our first dispatch from the front www.theguardian.com/world/2024/s...

🚨 New publicly available dataset on housing regulations across US municipalities

With Alex Bartik and Dan Milo, we highlight a novel AI-based method for accurate categorization of regulations in unstructured text, which we use to establish 5 facts about housing regulation:

Most relaxing thing I do on this campus.

Caption: Earth, Air, Fire and Water wait excitedly to see how they'll fit into Dmitri Mendeleev's table of elements Image: Dmitri is drawing the table on a chalkboard. Behind him, the four classical elements watch happily. Water says "Look! He's adding a eighth column. That must be for us!".

My latest cartoon for New Scientist

Time to move my thread with my favorite paper >titles< to bsky.app

1/N
The Pope and the Price of Fish
Frederick W. Bell
The American Economic Review
Vol. 58, No. 5 (Dec., 1968), pp. 1346-1350
jstor.org/stable/1814033

For Bluesky-Curious Econ Lovers - Aaron Sojourner This Quick Start guide aims to help econ lovers easily join Bluesky’s growing economics community. The Bluesky User FAQ covers generic basics, like how to start an account. This guide orients you to e...

For Bluesky-Curious Econ Lovers, a Quick Start guide to plugging into the economics community here.

It aims to lower the costs & boost the benefits for folks to engage here.

If it seems useful, please share it here & especially on X.
📉📈 #️⃣#️⃣
aaronsojourner.org/for-bluesky-...

I am thrilled to announce that Bluesky is starting to feel like old science Twitter.

Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions (Forthcoming Article) - We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to est...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions" by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Peter Hull, and Michal Kolesár. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

With Daron moving from Twitter, that's like 2/3 of Econ Twitter on Blue Sky (weighted by citations).

Check out the online repository where you can explore the data and studies from our review below

economic.github.io/owe/

I added dozens of active poasters to this Starter Pack of individual accounts bcz Bluesky raised the pack limit from 50 to 150, including
@arindube.bsky.social
@benzipperer.org
@belindaarch.bsky.social
@leightjessica.bsky.social.

If you haven't checked it lately, refresh.
go.bsky.app/DxFZBfc

I am trying to be more active on here, and have not yet seen an IO or org econ starter pack, so here is an attempt at one:

go.bsky.app/Rchu8QX

Please shout out if I have forgotten someone, or when others join. #EconSky

Our @voxeu.org piece summarizing our recent JEL paper "Religion and Growth", with @jaredcrubin.com and @woessmann.bsky.social

cepr.org/voxeu/column...