Andreas Schroeder

🇷🇺🇨🇳Russia-China CNPC-Gazprom deal has potential to shift global #LNG balance after 2030. 35 mtpa LNG demand at stake. After peak of long-term contracts new PoS #natgas pipeline can fill gap demand vs contracts emerging post-2030. Good bargaining chip for Chinese negotiators.

Simple look at #Eurostat trade statstics is enough to gauge the order of magnitude of the 250 bn USD ambition in latest 𝗨𝗦-𝗘𝗨 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝗮𝗹. 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 In 2024 around 70 bn€ worth of fossils trade from USA to EU. Bring it to 250 bn $ (~215 bn €) needs a heavy lift.

So far ICIS ship-tracking data has #LNG traffic through #StraitofHormuz going on as usual. Some vessels pass the strait. We count around 10 ballast vessels South East of the strait before entering the Persian Gulf. That's a common picture. #ONGT @relxhq.bsky.social

Asia by far more affected by #StraitofHormuz closure compared to Europe. Around 87% of Qatar 🇶🇦 + Emirates 🇦🇪 #LNG goes to Asian destinations.

💥Iran could shut #StraitofHormuz after US attacks. Parliament endorses but final go is with supreme 🇮🇷 leader. A closure of the critical strait would be very consequential for global markets. Chokepoint cuts 20% of global #LNG #gas from Qatar🇶🇦+ Emirates 🇦🇪 and 20 mbd #oil.

EU's Russia phase-out: postponing details again after previous delays. Only a communication. Concrete legislation follows in June. What instruments apply? Uncertain weak point. EU has no instruments but sanctions (require unanimity), Demand aggregation (weak) and more roadmaps. It chose the latter.

Decisive European #natgas week:
📜6 May, @EU_Commission Russia phase-out 2027.
📅7 May @Europarl_EN plenary on EU gas #storage, vote 8 May.
📅9 May Swiss Court rule on @NordStream2 debt. Bankruptcy imminent.
@relxhq.bsky.social ICIS data: US #LNG grows to 25% in Europe, Russia below 10% in April 2025.

🇩🇪 Government in sight: for #energy markets no big surprise. Climate 2045 ambition maintained with push for #CCUS. Lower #electricity prices, one bidding zone, new capacity mechanism, grid-friendly renewable support. 20GW new #natgas plants, scrap of storage levy, biogas revival.

Schweiz - Studie zur Steigerung des öV-Anteils: Das Schweizer Bundesamt für Verkehr (BAV) hat im Auftrag des Parlaments eine Studie erstellen lassen, die aufzeigen soll, welche Ansätze es gibt, um den Anteil des öffentlichen Verkehrs (öV) am Gesamtverkehr zu steigern (Direktlink). Die Studie...

European #natgas: who let the bears out?👉Obvious strong correlation price vs speculation.

🐻Bearish drivers:
· Weather triggered spec sell-off
· Possible return of Russian gas
· Flex EU storage targets
· No EU Russia sanctions
📈Expect markets to correct this week after an overly strong sell-off.

🇷🇺 Russia-EU 🇪🇺 Hard time for #natgas pipes but open gates for #LNG. Transshipment sanctions start March 2025 but direct imports remain legal. As Poland takes over @consilium.europa.eu Presidency other measures might follow in coordination with @ec.europa.eu. @relxhq.bsky.social ICIS has the data.

Eisenbahnjahr 2024 – miserabel, oder ist die DB sogar vorangekommen? Eisenbahnjahr 2024 – miserabel, oder ist die DB sogar vorangekommen?

Eisenbahnjahr 2024 – miserabel, oder ist die DB sogar vorangekommen?: Aus Sicht des Fahrgastverbands PRO BAHN war 2024 für die Fahrgäste in Niedersachsen und Bremen ein verlorenes Jahr. Das Angebot auf der Schiene wurde kaum ausgeweitet. Hingegen befinden sich Zuverlässigkeit und Pünktlichkeit...

PRO BAHN trauert um Sigrid Pohlmann PRO BAHN trauert um Sigrid Pohlmann

PRO BAHN trauert um Sigrid Pohlmann: Der Fahrgastverband PRO BAHN trauert um Sigrid Pohlmann, die gestern im Alter von 84 Jahren verstorben ist. Sigrid Pohlmann war während ihrer langjährigen Tätigkeit für PRO BAHN Vorsitzende des Regionalverbands Westholstein, Mitglied im Vorstand des...

ICIS world #LNG 2024 data: Supply strongly (60%) concentrated on USA/Australia/Qatar. Demand is more diverse but 60% in S & E Asia. China overtook Japan in 2023, set to stay top offtaker for years. If you group EU they are first consumer but with volatile intake. #ONGT @relxhq.bsky.social

In 2024 the #Ukraine transit is mainly used to supply Central Europe with #natgas. Two-thirds of consumption in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary is covered through imports from Ukraine. Storage & #LNG are short-term alternatives. With the end of Ukraine transit flows on 1 Jan 2025 storage & LNG are key.