Harold Tobin

Russian volcano erupts days after monster quake shakes region The volcano may have been primed to erupt before the magnitude 8.8 quake pushed it over the edge.

This eruption is an interesting … coincidence?? Seismically triggered eruptions are not really my specialty, but I answered the phone on Sunday morning when @npr.org’s @gbrumfiel.bsky.social called, so here you go: Russian volcano erupts days after monster quake shakes

www.npr.org/2025/08/03/n...

Their website says “Note that while this model output represents the latest research modeling at NCTR, the operational forecast is performed at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) using the same technology.”

Yes, I did kind of blend them to simplify the story. I understood from the website that they both use the exact same method to hand off the deep water model to the inundation one so I thought it was a minor point - but maybe not!

They ran these models very early in the hours of the tsunami's trip across the ocean, fueling the accurate and timely warnings. (6/6)

They then could hand off that open ocean tsunami model to coastal inundation models that were pre-computed. Here are some examples from Haleiwa, HI and Crescent City, CA. Looks like they did very well with both timing and amplitude! (5/6)

AS the tsunami passed other DART buoys, they could calibrate and verify the model. This image shows comparison of the model and the observed waves at various DART sites, showing great agreement. (4/6)

Color map of the entire Pacific Ocean, with colors representing tsunami wave height in the open ocean, and contour lines showing the tsunami wave front in elapsed hours after the earthquake.

Here is their model result for the open-ocean height of the wave (NOT the height at coastlines in shallow water) and how it varied across the Pacific. These were produced well BEFORE the tsunami reached Hawaii. (3/6)

PMEL tsunami reseachers posted this excellent page. "About 35 minutes after the earthquake, tsunami recording of DART 21416 peaked at a maximum amplitude of 0.85 m, the second largest DART amplitude ever recorded." (2/6) nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/kamchatka202...

YouTube video by NOAAPMEL Kamchatka Tsunami, July 29, 2025 tsunami propagation

Here is @noaa.gov's model of the tsunami propagation from the people at PMEL, initiated with the earthquake location and then calibrated by the DART buoy observations. There is a wealth of great information at their website (link in thread). (1/6) ⚒️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOtJ...

Why a recent earthquake didn't wreak havoc, despite its power After an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off Russia's coast triggered tsunami alerts as far as the U.S., experts like seismologist Harold Tobin explain why the impact was far less devastating than expected.

Went on CBS Mornings today to talk about the tsunami and how it all unfolded. They had good questions. www.cbsnews.com/video/why-a-...

I do something similar in my class - lists of the 10 biggest and the 10 deadliest earthquakes are very different, even if you include the tsunami fatalities.

Do you know any more details? I have read that there was a car accident fatality in Japan during evacuations, but while that’s very sad and is related, it is also a bit distinct from a direct fatality due to the tsunami.

Several factors contribute: sparse population at risk, little vulnerable infrastructure, yes - but also the nature of some (not all!) offshore megathrust quakes directing seismic energy away from land, and the position of the Kuril Trench relative to other coastlines may be at play here. Good news!

The M8.8 off Kamchatka appears to be the largest earthquake ever recorded that apparently didn't kill anyone. That's really remarkable, if true. ⚒️

Black and white photograph of people fleeing the 1946 tsunami

Federally funded science saves lives. Not long ago, tsunamis from events like last night's M8.7 in Kamchatka could strike communities across the Pacific with no warning. Lives were lost simply because no one knew a wave was coming

Image of quoted text: "Tobin said the successful tsunami warning Tuesday should spur investment in seafloor sensors and seismic monitoring stations offshore along the subduction zone. “This shows the value and importance of NOAA and the USGS in these times where some of these government agencies have come into question,” he said. “We wouldn’t have had a tsunami warning if it weren’t for NOAA, and the next one could be a closer event. They showed their value.”

I am glad @evanbush.bsky.social used this quote in this excellent @nbcnews.com story. This is a key message I really wanted to get across in interviews today. Article here: www.nbcnews.com/science/scie...

A graph of the water levels at a tide gauging station in Port Angeles Washington. Blue line shows predicted tide in feet above mean low water; red line shows observed water level. Yuo can clearly see the oscillations of the tsunami from Kamchatka, up to ~2 feet amplitude.

Wednesday evening, tsunami waves are still sloshing around at Port Angeles, WA ... 18+ hours after they first arrived. Source: @noaa.gov tide gauge website. ⚒️

What caused the 8.8 magnitude quake that sent tsunamis to Hawaii and California Here's what we know about what caused the earthquake off Russia's Far East and why the tsunami it generated weren't as big as anticipated.

NEW: A magnitude 8.8 megaquake blasted tsunami waves across the Pacific today. Here's everything you need to know about it, including:

-Why it happened
-Why it generated a widespread tsunami
-Why the timing of this megaquake is a bit weird

Me, for NatGeo www.nationalgeographic.com/science/arti...

Why the Russia Earthquake Didn't Cause a Huge Tsunami Russia's magnitude-8.8 earthquake spawned serious tsunami warnings, but waves have been moderate so far. Here's the geological reason why

Another earthquake story from @sciam.bsky.social by the always-excellent @squigglyvolcano.bsky.social explaining why the tsunami from the Russia quake wasn't as huge as the one from the 2011 Japan quake, for example. 🧪

Good point, I was reacting in haste maybe. High convergence rate there.

map of southern Kamchatka peninsula, with earthquake epicenters plotted offshore Petropavlovsk. Russia.

Today's M8.8 (orange circle) and the 1952 M9.0 epicentral locations, separated by only 73 years. I wouldn't have thought that possible! Average recurrence intervals don't tell the full story. ⚒️

This is a VERY large earthquake, possibly/probably among the 10 largest ever recorded. A clear subduction zone megathrust event. And it is another M>8.5 event with a notable foreshock (the recent M7.4 in same location), like Tohoku in 2011.

I'm excited to announce that we are seeking an External Engagement Lead for the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network! PNSN is the trusted authority on earthquakes and related topics in the PNW. Help us shape earthquake preparedness, advocacy for resilience, and hazards information all across Cascadia.

Signs of unrest would include significantly larger and/or different types of earthquakes, ground deformation (bulging), and emission of gases - those could possibly mean magma on the move. That's not an exhaustive list, but gives a flavor. The swarm is not a sign of new magmatic activity so far.

Monitoring stations detect small magnitude earthquakes at Mount Rainier An earthquake swarm that started at Mount Rainier on July 8, 2025, is the most significant seismicity at the volcano since 2009.

The 2025 earthquake swarm is now the largest one ever recorded at Mt. Rainier. It exceeds even the 2009 swarm in cumulative magnitude and event number and rate. >340 quakes located by @pnsn1.bsky.social so far, with 1000s more detected. Still not showing signs of unrest. www.usgs.gov/observatorie...

Stay calm. The ‘earthquake swarm’ at Mount Rainier is normal Hundreds of earthquakes are detected at or near Mount Rainier each year, though typical swarms are smaller than what started last night.

Here is a good non-technical article explaining what is going on at Mt. Rainier today. Biggest swarm since 2009; not rising to the level of "unrest" and not concerning at this point. But very interesting and a sign that Rainier is absolutely an active volcano! ⚒️ www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...

It is, however, Mt. Rainier’s most substantial swarm since 2009 already.

On 7/8/25, the USGS & PNSN detected a swarm of earthquakes at Mount Rainier starting at 1:29AM PDT. Currently, there is no indication that the level of activity is cause for concern, alert level & color code for Mount Rainier remain at GREEN/NORMAL.

CVO Statement: volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans-public/...

Screenshot of Washington post headline reading “DOGE loses control over government grants website, freeing up billions”

Good news, I guess, but the fact that this is a real story about the government of the United States of America is absolutely bonkers.

YouTube video by HUDchannel Live: The New Golden Age of HUD | Secretary Turner Unveils HUD’s New Building

Absolutely speechless as this press conference basically ignores that NSF is already working, living, loving this building. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zdct...