Jon Featonby

I am immensely disappointed that the Government has today scrapped permanent refugee status. Refugees will now face reviews every 30 months and be forced to return if their country is deemed 'safe'.

We know that countries listed as 'safe' aren't safe for everybody, particularly LGBTQ+ refugees.

Immigration rules. Kinda like an SI but set out in the Immigration Act 1971

Yeah, rules changes probably laid on Thursday, to impact asylum claims made from today onwards.

This line from the statement also noteworthy:

"Family reunion remains paused while new rules are designed that bring financial and integration requirements in line with those expected of British citizens."

Doesn't sound like family reunion will be 'unpaused' anytime soon, as promised last Sep

Updating previous calculations, @refugeecouncil.bsky.social estimates this could mean the Home Office needing to carry out 1.1m reviews in the first decade after they start. That's on top of existing asylum casework and whatever the process for moving onto thework and study protection route will be.

Written statements - Written questions, answers and statements - UK Parliament Information from UK Parliament on written questions & answers, written statements and daily reports.

Written statement on the asylum changes confirms:

- refugees will get 2.5 years leave instead of 5
- covers people who apply from today
- details of 20 year settlement & core protection to come
- doesn’t apply to unaccompanied children (for now)

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-stat...

Here but excluded remains the worst of all worlds from an integration perspective.

It feels like a policy that is a bit more straightforward, at least in theory, where grants were made from situations like the one in Sudan recently, but they’re the minority. Much harder for grants that are on very individual circumstances.

I think we thought it was going to be retrospective, but from the reporting I think the 2.5 years will only ever apply to those who claim asylum after tomorrow. Anyone with limited leave or with a pending asylum application will, it seems, remain on the 5-year route. Hopefully confirmed tomorrow.

Based on recent levels of grants, it would only take a few years before the number of reviews being processed is higher than the number of initial asylum decisions being taken. Within the first 10 years of reviews, @refugeecouncil.bsky.social estimates between 940k and 1.1m reviews would be needed.

Refugee status to be temporary as Shabana Mahmood rips up rules on UK asylum Home secretary announces 30-month protection limit, with refugees required to leave if their home countries are later judged safe

This policy is bad for community cohesion.

You don’t build confident, contributing neighbours on rolling 30 month visas. The current 5‑year route is how people plan for the future and fully join our communities.

The Danish model won’t work here.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

Yep:

"In an interview with The Times, Mahmood made clear that she would press ahead with the plans on indefinite leave to remain and confirmed that the changes would apply retrospectively to those already in the UK.

She will change the law in the autumn"

I think it's the Times coverage (and the Home Affairs journos all seem to have been with Mahmood in Denmark this week).

I'm not sure that's correct. I think the rules changes this week will contain the changes for refugee leave being reduced to 2.5 years. My understanding, which could well be wrong, is that the wider earned settlement changes will be in the autumn statement of changes, to then come in after that.

Denmark isn't Britain - in its immigration patterns, in its integration challenges, or in its history or politics.

If think lessons are transferable (as Cowley argues) this strategy would be: pursue "Danish" reforms, be OK if lose prog support, by Labour being coalitionable with Badenoch's Tories

I think that's still to become clear and still up for grabs over the next 6 months. There's a lot of the detail that, as far as I can tell, hasn't been decided yet.

true. Leaving aside the rights or wrongs of the policy positions, it does seem to me to be a pretty daft way of being able to make changes that have such a deep impact on individuals' lives.

I think tomorrow is all about the 2.5yr grants of leave for refugees, and that will be in rules changes laid later this week. It sounds as if the earned settlement changes will be in the autumn statement of changes.

only if the government grant time for the debate. And even then it's take it or leave it - there's no amendments to be tabled and debated. The rules also aren't a statutory instrument, so a motion to disapprove the rules doesn't revoke the changes.

one of the issues rebels will face is the settlement changes can be done through the immigration rules. A bill might set out the core protection 20-year route for refugees, but the wider migration changes will just be in the rules. MPs should note they haven't even debated rules changes since 2008.

The Government seem to be saying these changes are the most significant overhaul in a generation (questionable). If that is the case, then it should send alarm bells ringing that such substantial changes can be done through changing the immigration rules, with no automatic parliamentary scrutiny.

Mahmood seemed to dismiss questions about the impact on Home Office capacity when asked by the Guardian, but this would also be a significant bureaucratic undertaking once the reviews kick in in 2028

Everything we know about short periods of leave says it’s bad for integration, creating more barriers for people trying to get jobs, study or just get on their lives.

Worth stressing that it sounds as if the change doesn’t apply to those already with status or currently in the system.

Shabana Mahmood to announce asylum system changes to take effect From Monday, asylum seekers granted refugee status in the UK will be offered only temporary protection.

This seems to be the substance of tomorrow’s announcement - that anyone who applies for asylum as of Monday will, if they’re successful, get 2.5 years leave instead of 5 years. They would then go into the new 20 year route to settlement, once that’s in place.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

A senior Danish guy in the Social Democrats said to me that Denmark does not think of itself as a multicultural country whereas Britain does, which makes our situation very different.

Some of the keys unknowns is how the new “Core Protection” status will work, and how refugees will be able to move onto the new Work and Study Protection route. Also not clear what the benefits of the work and work and study route will be, other than minimal family reunion rights

Plans to make refugee a status of perpetual limbo will do nothing to stop people who need help seeking it nor make it possible for them to rebuild their lives and contribute. I call for humane and effective asylum reforms because I am true Labour, not blue Labour. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Immigration - Hansard - UK Parliament Hansard record of the item : ' Immigration' on Tuesday 13 May 2008.

For the Commons, I think it was 2008 hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2008...

The Lords debates them fairly regularly, just not within the 40 days in s3 of the 1971 Act.

Our @refugeecouncil.bsky.social analysis in November estimated the extra reviews would cost at least £1.1bn over the first decade www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/press-office...

That doesn't measure the extra barriers to integration caused leaving refugees with precarious leave for two decades.

November's Restoring Order and Control paper also proposed:

- making asylum support a power rather than a duty
- removing accommodation and financial support from families with children once they've been refused asylum
- replacing the appeal tribunal with an appeal body run by the Home Office