Tom Clark

World politics already rippling back into British politics in potentially important ways

What if the result in the (atypical) Gorton seat were replicated nationwide?

Extrapolating using a few rough simplifying assumptions, @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social reaches some arresting conclusions here mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-...

Dismaying to hear this aired unchallenged as a good faith story on a Radio 4 press review

As the Americans have found out, once casting doubt on the democratic process is part of the electoral game, politics takes a very dangerous turn

📉 #IFSSatStat: The most recent data show net migration was significantly below the OBR’s forecast for 2025.

Previous OBR estimates suggest a permanent 100,000-a-year drop in net migration could increase its borrowing forecast by around £10 billion per year in the medium term.

1.9K views · 11 comments | 📹Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to “keep on fighting” despite Labour’s humiliating defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election. 📌 Video: PA Media | Stoke-on-Trent Live 📹Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to “keep on fighting” despite Labour’s humiliating defeat in the Gorton and Denton by-election. 📌 Video: PA Media

The PM clip is interesting as has repeated refrains, suggesting very deliberate messaging

But one comms quirk are mixed metaphors: “we’ll roll up our sleeves so we can do the hard yards” … No 10 needs Bernard from Yes, Minister

www.facebook.com/stokeontrent...

The PM response to Gorton & Denton has been to castigate the Greens as the mirror image of Reform — extremists who “want to tear our country apart”

Here’s my take www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/725...

The results are in—the Greens have won a remarkable victory.

On the Prospect Podcast, @benansell.bsky.social and @tom-clark.bsky.social predicted that only Green victory would put the Starmer government under serious pressure.

So...what now? Listen to their analysis below, and follow us for more.

First intriguing & enraging thought: gosh, a landlord trying to return us to the pre-1833 franchise

Second: democracy as collateral damage in an effort to pass a cottage off as a garden shed for Council Tax purposes!

Extraordinary that anyone would think this could possibly be acceptable!

It was interesting to hear the (centrist) Heidi Alexander strike a defter tone

Rather than accuse the Greens of wishing to tear our country apart, like the PM, she says she agreed with the diagnosis of Hannah Spencer’s acceptance speech but feared some of her solutions were “fairytales”

The irony is that on tax, spend & workers’ rights Labour is reasonably positioned to be the centrist flank of the Left bloc

But machine politics, a tendency to be cowed by wealth & illiberal poses are getting in the way of it making an appealing argument for incremental social democracy

The crisis is as deep as it is as Labour has now given master classes within 6 years of how to lose by veering left AND by over-correcting

Latest from PM suggests he still struggles to grasp our Left bloc Vs Right bloc politics

Instead, he’s trying to equate Greens & Reform from a vanishing centre

The Labour landslide paradox In this election, some votes are much more equal than others

On the very first dawn of Starmer’s 2024 triumph I pointed to frailties in the inner-city part of his coalition www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/ele...

This is the depth of the crisis — Labour has now shown it can lose by veering left AND by overcorrecting …

Labour’s crisis in 3 numbers

Total votes in Gorton & Denton

2019 - 30,814*

2024 - 18,555

2026 - 9,364

The strategy of winning by neglecting your own base has run out of road

*adjusted for slight boundary changes

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/725...

Eerily similar to the General Election turnout there. Interesting to think that 3,000-odd activists marauding through the streets of a single seat engenders similar (lack of) interest to the distant media hum of a national campaign

On the high “family voting”/electoral commission story I wondered if part of it could be couples still discussing who the best bet to beat Party X is right into the polling booth!

I do wonder if we even know for sure turnout is high yet … (though wouldn’t be surprised if it was, as 3,000 party people marauding round a constituency is enough to make it impossible to forget its going on!)

What could be interesting at 10 is whether the exceptional bullishness all sources have been projecting to deal with the 3-way dynamics gives way to a more straightforward assessment. Or even flips into traditional downbeat expectation management

Insightful reflections here at the close of a long & distinguished innings. V best of luck to George for the next chapter

The battle for Gorton and Denton’s soul The polls show a three-way-race between the Greens, Labour and Reform. What’s at stake?

Keep your ears busy in the long wait for by-election news

@benansell.bsky.social, @aloner.bsky.social & me all go as far as we dare in making sense of the contest as it’s unfolded in one of the most extraordinary campaigns I can recall

Tune in! www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/podcasts/pro...

In Gorton and Denton, Labour and the Greens blame each other The death of establishment politics is clear to see in the Manchester constituency

And if you haven't do read @tom-clark.bsky.social's excellent dispatch from Gorton and Denton >> www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/724...

Really enjoyable -- if foolhardy?! -- chat about Gorton, Denton and the wider political outlook with @benansell.bsky.social and @aloner.bsky.social

Tune in!

If you only read one piece of analysis on Gorton & Denton, then make it this

A top psephologist & a local who knows the seat, @robfordmancs.bsky.social is especially insightful on why — whatever result we get — the wrong lessons are bound to be drawn

Bumper briefing on what Reform actually does in power here from @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social

& yet another case study in the stubborn outcome between political words & policy outcomes, as this telling little quote shows

www.ft.com/content/dc40...

In Gorton and Denton, Labour and the Greens blame each other The death of establishment politics is clear to see in the Manchester constituency

"Just a few shops along I stumble on a take-away which has also pinned up a Vote Labour sign right next to Zack Polanski grinning from a Green party leaflet"

read @tom-clark.bsky.social's excellent dispatch from Gorton & Denton

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/724...

YouTube video by Resolution Foundation Who are 'Unsung Britain'?

A state of the (poorer half of) the nation debate!

Great chat on social, political and economic change of the last generation with @ruthcurtice.bsky.social & Scarlett Maguire

www.youtube.com/watch?v=42ft...

(or Audio-only podcast here: resolutionfoundation.podbean.com/e/who-are-un...)

It’s a big week in Gorton and Denton with the highly anticipated, blockbuster byelection taking place on Thursday...

Read Tom Clark’s full piece here: www.prospectmagazine...

In Gorton and Denton, Labour and the Greens blame each other The death of establishment politics is clear to see in the Manchester constituency

7.

Shivering fingers could no longer operate phone in the Boho bits of Levenshulme

But most posters on the homes were Green

Interestingly, though, Lab had definite edge in local shop windows

Anyway, read the piece for what the camera couldn’t catch www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/724...

6.

V few posters in Gorton, but putting one up sometimes engenders an equal & opposite reaction from neighbours … 3 homes right by each other here …