Jacob Mardell

Fringe voices even float revising China’s no-first-use doctrine towards Japan.

Most mainstream pieces still argue for sustained, rules-based escalation to convince Japanese elites an anti-China line isn’t sustainable.

TL;DR:
– continuity: hard-right remilitarisation, not a one-off
– confidence: Japan seen as a declining spoiler
– policy menu: ‘legal diplomacy’, calibrated pressure, and the ‘Ryukyu card’.

Is Takaichi’s Taiwan line a US-backed bid to bog China down, or a nervous Japan trying to drag Washington back in?

For Sinification we've just gone through 70+ Chinese pieces on the China–Japan fallout. Full briefing in today’s newsletter – link below.

Zhao Junjie's piece on the EU's "Rare Earth Anxiety" arrived in your inbox this morning! If it didn't, subscribe! While squarely official messaging, it perfectly illustrates a distinct exasperation - even disdain - for the EU that is widespread in Chinese thinking and worth getting to know.