I'm anticipating a deal this summer or sometime before the regular season starts. The parameters are clear enough, as long as Connor wants to remain with the Jets.

Might influence negotiations with Perfetti, I suppose.

Some uncomfortable questions pending for O'Shea? Do we get more of the usual brush-off with his assertions that he's got it all sorted out?

They really hoped Dubois was the answer but he's just too inconsistent and enigmatic, besides not wanting to stay in a market like Winnipeg.

Jets might need to hope that they can run two 2-C level players (like with Scheifele and Little) and surround them with a lot of talent and depth on the wings. The current hope has to be that Yager can grow into a 2C. They might need a Hintz / Johnston type of pick, which is a longshot.

Interesting to hear Friedman also note how much the Jets like playing with each other and how serious and focused they are about hockey. I kind of wonder if players like Laine and Ehlers just didn't fully fit that 12-month intensity about hockey. Captain Serious might fit well, though.

Absolutely. The Jets have a detailed projection of their future contract projections and various permutations and combinations. I think the Jets would have liked to sign Samberg long-term, but not at the expense of squeezing their cap this year and next. They've been good with cap management.

For a team focused on competing in the next 2-3 seasons, preserving cap space is a key strategy. I could see Chevy looking to add a strong middle-6 F at the TDL and try to extend (like Nino). Having the cap space and eating Toews' bonuses this season can facilitate that.

Amazing decisions, all around...

...befuddling defensive coaching.

Vaval has electric speed and great vision. Special talent.

Thanks. Will try to find some time to view this soon.

In the meantime, your overall impressions of Freij and Boumedienne in the showcase? Do they seem like solid bets for the WJHC?

O'Shea claims that it's everyone on the team making mistakes at various times. That's either a coaching problem, or too many ineffective players, or both. It doesn't look like a team that just needs a few tweaks.

I'd guess Chevy would have been amenable to locking Samberg in for 6.1-6.5M over 7 or 8 years, but I highly doubt that Samberg's agent would agree. Gavrikov at 7M & Miller at 7.5M shaped the market, I'd bet. Samberg clearly thought 6.5M was just a starting level for UFA years, escalating from there.

I like Boumedienne's demeanour. He seems to have a lot of confidence and aggressiveness and can take initiative on the ice. They need to be well-channeled, but those are traits that top-end players generally have.

Oops, wrong thread. 🥴

Looks like the salary structure is...

4.25M
6.5M
6.5M

So, as you suggested the calculus was 4.25 for the RFA year, and 6.5M for the UFA years.

My guess is that Samberg was looking at something like 7.5M+ for the remaining UFA years if it was an 8 year deal. So, something around 8x7M...

Since I follow fewer than three score accounts, and only on Bsky, I have a very parsimonious and pleasing timeline, with a very satisfactory weighting of McCurdy / @hockeyviz.com content. Group chats? Sounds too much like a seminar course.

Morrissey will probably be looking at a legacy contract (a bit longer and higher than value). Samberg looking for a big 6-year deal. DeMelo at a 3rd pair level and short-term.

I often use SN for other sports (in Canada and overseas), but the cost is getting too high. I need a service that provides game replays since I'm often in a very different time zone.

I need to use a VPN to access SN whenever I'm overseas, anyway...

For the Jets, it might be good timing for a long-term extension for Connor with the changes to maximum term. Beyond that, I think we'll see more of these shorter term deals until cap escalation plateaus a bit, especially for the middle tier players.

Yes, I think the future constraints are going to be driven by team finances. Smart for players like Samberg to keep the pressure on via free agency to optimize their salaries. It might really slow prospect development pipelines as the need for ELC players to fill roster spots diminishes.

It would cover most or all of Toews' bonuses, depending on when Lowry returns. But if the Jets use most or all of their cap space on players at the trade deadline, then they would defer Toews' bonuses to next year's cap. Not such a big problem with the cap rising substantially for 2026/27.

Also, I wonder about the impact of the long-term deals for Miller (7.5M) and Gavrikov (7.75M). Samberg's agent likely projected Samberg into that sphere within the next short timeframe.

Jets have almost 4M in cap space to work with even with Lowry on IR, and that was likely a key consideration.

Seems that the negotiations were tougher than many of us expected. The projected future rise in salary cap likely made finding an AAV on a long term deal challenging. Samberg likely considered Gavrikov and Miller as contract comparables, and Jets preferred a lower AAV for now.

Another consideration is that even if they go through with arbitration the Jets will be able to offer considerably more to Samberg (in January) than would be available as a UFA next summer. Another thing; the agent is also bargaining for himself. A 500k AAV difference over 8 years is a lot of fees.

You would think they would have really liked to avoid the hassle. Clearly, they are struggling to find a compromise. The downsides of an arb deal for both sides are substantial, so they are both using the arb hearing deadline to pressure each other. Fascinating.

Well, the brinksmanship suggests they are struggling to find the right term and/or AAV.

I expect they'll get an agreement though, because the alternative would likely mean a parting of ways, and I don't think either side wants that.

...it certainly seems like a lot of brinksmanship. Suggests they have been pretty far apart. The stakes are very high, because if they don't agree before the arb hearing, the odds seem high that Samberg doesn't stay a Winnipeg Jet beyond next season.

That was a very stylish 🍕