Skilful seasonal streamflow forecasting using a fully coupled global climate model Abstract. The seasonal streamflow forecast (SSF) is a crucial decision-making, planning and management tool for disaster prevention, navigation, agriculture and hydropower generation. This study demon...

Proud to announce the publication of our latest paper led by Gabriel Narvaez-Campo in the @egu.eu journal #HESS.
A novel approach on river streamflow seasonal prediction at the global scale.
@meteofrance.com
@cnrs-insu.bsky.social
@hepexorg.bsky.social
hess.copernicus.org/articles/29/...

The ERA5 global reanalysis This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the ERA5 global reanalysis from 1979 onwards, which is produced at ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. It provides a detailed...

Scatterometer is used in ERA5. See table 4: rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Contrast with ERA5-land, which assimilated no data.

Cherry picking this to debunk the whole climate modelling exercise is clearly a bad faith argument, but these sort of trend errors would, at face value, be a real issue for e.g. an agro sector end user and should be a focus for model development.

Causes of model dry and warm bias over central U.S. and impact on climate projections - Nature Communications Climate models repeatedly show a warm and dry bias over the central United States, but the origin of this bias remains unclear. Here the authors associate this bias to precipitation deficits in models...

The issue with JJA T2m trends over the US is consistent with this paper www.nature.com/articles/s41... linking the strength of a warm/dry bias over the central US to magnitude of regional temperature change. It's a common issue and relates to convective precip and land-atmosphere coupling.

Thanks for all the helpful discussions!

cc. @crdlz.bsky.social @hepexorg.bsky.social @gewex.bsky.social @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int

3. Soil moisture “memory” offers a pathway for improving summer forecasts, but only if models better capture land–atmosphere feedbacks.

2. However, some areas—like Eastern Europe and Northern India—exhibit 𝗲𝘅𝗮𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴, introducing forecast biases.

The key findings are:
1. Regions such as western North America, southern Europe, and Central Asia show further potential for seasonal temperature and precipitation prediction skill based on soil moisture anomalies.

Soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling hotspots and their representation in seasonal forecasts of boreal summer - Climate Dynamics This study examines soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling “hotspots” across the Northern Hemisphere during the summer months and evaluates their representation in seasonal forecasting systems. Using hindc...

Excited to share our new paper in @springernature.com Climate Dynamics exploring soil moisture–atmosphere coupling hotspots across the Northern Hemisphere in @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social #C3S #Seasonal forecasts. link.springer.com/article/10.1...
#ClimateScience #SoilMoisture #ClimateResearch

Weather Balloons

Today's @xkcd.com is definitely one for my atmospheric and climate sciences colleagues: xkcd.com/3107 (e.g. @gabihegerl.bsky.social @andrewdessler.com @simonleewx.com . . . )

Arctic expert predicts final collapse of sea ice within four years As sea ice shrinks to record lows, Prof Peter Wadhams warns a 'global disaster' is now unfolding in northern latitudes

Reminds me of this ill fated prediction of a sea ice free Arctic from Wadhams: www.theguardian.com/environment/.... following a similar methodology of fitting an exponential.

🌍 New preprint: "Soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling hotspots in seasonal forecasts of boreal summer" explores how soil moisture affects seasonal predictions & highlights areas for improvement. Read here: doi.org/10.21203/rs.... #ClimateScience #SeasonalForecasting #LandAtmosphereInteractions

The new #ECMWF IFS Cycle 49r1 brings some minor updates to #CopernicusAtmosphere, such as improved global emissions datasets and aerosol modelling.

Read more about the changes and the impacts for CAMS at confluence.ecmwf.int/display/COPS...