Štěpán Jurajda

Trump's US approval is roughly where it was at this point in his 1st term (The Economist), and the share who think the country is headed in the right direction is roughly as high as it was at this point of the Biden administration (YouGov). Anybody tracking the mood of the swing (marginal) voters?

Podobně když se vybraly miliardy dolarů v soudních sporech s tabákovými společnostmi, tak se nevěnovaly na podporu zdraví těch, kteří neuměli přestat kouřit a platili vyšší daně z tabáku. Někde to dali na podporu zemědělců apod. A pak se divíme, jak lidi volí.

Je to pro ně tragický - nemají identitu, neuživí rodinu a jejich děti vyrůstají bez nich, umírají na oxycontin. Když společnost bohatne díky obchodu, nesnaží se bohužel pomoct tam, kde by měla. A volby to ukážou. Ale to neznamená, že jim pomůžou tarify na ocel, které zničí víc pracovních míst jinde.

and the US accumulated a massive net foreign debt. (3) A hypothetical 20% rise in commodity prices after 1800 would have made the colonies a major creditor, and if the poor countries reinvested these revenues, the result could be near-complete productivity convergence between poor and rich regions.

to become the manufacturing superpower of the world. Europe's current account deficits were covered in large part by colonial tax revenues. (2) Between 1914 and 2025, no world region has received foreign income inflows approaching the magnitude of Europe's 19th century foreign income,

You may not have heard this in your history class: Europe is rich (and the third world is poor) because of the colonial extraction until 1914. A new study by Piketty and Nievas finds that (1) Between 1800 and 1914, Europe imported half of the world's commodity production (largely from its colonies)

Next, this quasi-random geographic variation in the marketing of opioids drives economic hardship and reliance on public transfer programs. The paper shows that this economic hardship then led to stronger Republican vote shares in elections in the communities most affected by the opioid epidemic.

The analysis starts by noting that there was initially much geographic inequality in cancer pain markets, and that this localized marketing to cancer patients was then expanded within the opioid epidemic, so that it serves as quasi-random allocation of where big pharma pushed its deadly opioids.

This paper is about the opioid epidemic, which killed hundreds of thousands, thanks to a "privatization" (deregulation, a key policy for the Republicans) of FDA that approved as non-addictive heroin-like substances like oxycontin, which were then marketed aggressively by big pharma.

Republican Support and Economic Hardship: The Enduring Effects of the Opioid Epidemic Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

Timothy Snyder has a theory of Sado Populism: The more politicians hurt a certain population that's already hurting to begin with, the more it votes for such leaders. Here's an example of this mechanism: Republican Support and Economic Hardship by Arteaga and Barone (www.nber.org/papers/w33904).

Is Google about to destroy the web? Google says adding more AI to its search engine will rejuvenate the internet. Others predict an apocalypse for websites. One thing is clear: this era of online history is closing.

If your page is to appear in Google searches, you have to allow its AI to use all of your content for free. Google AI Search summarises the content of pages that I no longer click through to, so they don't get ad revenue, and have no incentive to produce original content. www.bbc.com/future/artic...

kde každá země chrání své domácí výrobce, potřebujeme obchodně otevřený blok spřátelených zemí: „průmyslové továrny v Americe, Německu, Japonsku a Jižní Koreji dohromady mají větší přidanou hodnotu než ty v Číně. ... Mánie průmyslu není jen zavádějící, je sebezničující.“ The Economist

(3) kromě několika geopolitických úzkých hrdel (vzácné zeminy, velké zásoby munice) není třeba být připraven vyrábět vše hned teď, protože válečné ekonomiky mohou být flexibilní (Ukrajina), (4) i Čína nyní trpí úbytkem pracovních míst v továrnách. Místo neefektivních izolovaných ostrovů,

Sen o návratu zpracovatelského průmyslu (pracovních míst v něm) do bohatých zemí nedává smysl: (1) dobrá pracovní místa jsou už pryč, nové provozy jsou plně automatizované a nízkokvalifikovaní stejně dostávají lepší mzdy ve stavebnictví, (2) průmysl není pro hospodářský růst nezbytný (viz Indie),

to the Gaza/West Bank issue implicitly or explicitly accepted by the society (that this is not just Netanyahu being captured by the far right). Olmert responds: wait until the marginal voter sees the costs of Israel being the global pariah state and the heightened antisemitism that comes with that.

Last Ezra Klein show on Israel raises a question that's been on my mind: Only 1/3 of the Israeli society still believes in a two state solution; Klein pushes the notion that the Ben-Gvir/Smotrich expulsion/messianic solution (in the possible Bennett disguise) is therefore the de-facto only solution

je schopná investovat 150 miliard do vědecké infrastruktury, ale nemá skoro žádné výzkumné podklady a vyhodnocení penzijní reformy, výzkum měnící preventivní chování stárnoucí populace nebo výzkum kvality škol a dopadů vzdělávacích politik. Kde jsou obory jako health policy a educational research?

Včera vzácná příležitost diskutovat v rámci kulatého stolu podporu vědy s panem prezidentem, který byl informovaným diskutujícím s výbornými postřehy. V rámci diskuse jsem se ptal, jaká země (demokracie) dá cca dvě miliardy ročně na rezortní výzkum pícnin, peckovin nebo tkalcovských strojů,

The world may have just changed: (1) the 2024 world’s total fertility rate was likely below the replacement rate (Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Uni of Pennsylvania). (2) The bias in favour of boys is shrinking in developing countries as a preference for girls emerges in the rich world (The Economist).

Who needs The Onion.

Why Is Economics Called the “Dismal Science”? No, no, and no—economics is a lot of fun, and while we do sometimes make depressing predictions and are constantly saying “on the other hand,” neither of these are how economics became the dismal scie...

Economics is called the dismal science for having been part of the abolition movement. Who knew? www.forbes.com/sites/artcar...

Před pěti lety jsem doufal v přijetí zákona o správě veřejných dat. Tehdy nebyl napsaný. Dnes už je a už moc nedoufám.

Applied Health Economics | Institut pro zdravotní ekonomii, politiku a inovace | MUNI ECON APPLICATION ABOUT STUDY ...

Thinking about shaping the future of healthcare?

Apply now to our Master in Applied Health Economics (AHE) at Masaryk University.

Study in English. Learn from international experts. Build real-world skills in policy, data, and innovation.

Deadline soon—don’t miss out:
hepii.econ.muni.cz/AHE

Dva mé články (akceptované v Electoral Studies a Political Science Quarterly) ukazují, že v ČR voliči netrestají politiky za obzvlášť vysoké místní počty exekucí či za vysokou úmrtnost na Covid (dokonce ani za umírání mezi blízkými) a volí stále stejně. Odkazy v cv home.cerge-ei.cz/jurajda/JURA...

GP quality predicts mortality in Norwegian data on patients aged over 55 who had their GP randomly reassigned. Good GPs reduce the likelihood of dying from diseases that are treatable if detected early. Patients who can choose do not select high-quality GPs.

docs.iza.org/dp17726.pdf

Have you already heard about our Master's in Applied Health Economics at @econmuni.bsky.social?

👉In it, you will master health economics, policy and data analysis, and more.

Our next Online Open Day is held on March 31 and applications are due on April 30!

RSVP: forms.office.com/Pages/Respon...

Setkání NERVŮ, 2010-2025.💎

As a result, only 26 stocks now account for half the entire value of the S&P 500 index, the lowest number since at least 1980. (Robin Wigglesworth, FT )

Similarly, over 1925-2023, 50% of equities had a negative return while 17 stocks had cumulative returns greater than $50,000 per dollar invested. Similarly for VC funds: a median fund underperformed S&P500 during 1979-2018, but top 5% nearly tripled S&P performance. (Daniel Rasmussen, WSJ)

On the skewness of US firm/stock performance (by Hendrik Bessembinder): Net global stock market wealth creation of $US 76 trillion between 1990 and 2020 is all due to only 2% of (best-performing) stocks. The flip side of the coin is that less than half of U.S. stocks outperformed Treasury bills.