Johan Engvall

My latest with Svante Cornell on the potential of Central Asia-Nordic cooperation.

Chinese influence in the #CentralAsia region will significantly increase and will be especially important in the coming years. buff.ly/pQE7A3i

How is the Nordic experience of regional cooperation relevant to the distant Central Asia?

Read more on this intriguing topic here: buff.ly/EprDyZv

DN Debatt. ”Ett avbrott i striderna spelar Ryssland i händerna” DN Debatt. Östeuropaexperten Andreas Umland: Den som hoppas på fred i Ukraina efter mötet mellan Trump och Putin i Alaska hoppas för mycket.

Den som hoppas på fred i Ukraina vid fredagens möte i Alaska mellan Trump och Putin hoppas för mycket – Ryssland har gång på gång genom åren talat om fred och svarat med kulor.

@dagensnyheter.bsky.social @sceeus-ui.bsky.social @uisweden.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social @sveukr.bsky.social

After a country is taken over by illiberal rule, it's not easy to bring the pendulum back to liberalism.

Read FREE:

muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

Thanks @FPRI for publishing my look at some of the Chinese investment and deals for projects in Central Asia since 2023. www.fpri.org/article/2025...

Capitalism isn't a threat to democracy on its own. The real threat is state capture of business.

Read "Can Capitalism Save Democracy?" by Semuhi Sinanoglu, Lucan Way, and Steven Levitsky:

muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/a...

How the Nordic Countries Can Engage Central Asia Both the Nordic and Central Asian blocs have more in common and more to learn from each other than meets the eye.

The Nordic region and the Central Asian region have more in common and more to learn from each other than meets the eye. The case for why the Nordic countries should engage Central Asia.

nationalinterest.org/blog/silk-ro...

Uzbekistan's New Emphasis on the Military - The Times Of Central Asia Uzbekistan has become Central Asia’s leader in terms of military spending. This raises some questions about why Uzbekistan has boosted its military spending,

Our @pannierb.bsky.social makes the case for Uzbekistan's military budget rise signaling its potential as a Central Asian power timesca.com/uzbekistans-... #Uzbekistan #CentralAsia #MilitaryBudget #UzbekDefense #MilitaryStrategy #CentralAsianSecurity #PolicyAnalysis

Eurasia: Between Russia and Turkey Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and Western sanctions have reinforced economic relations between an increasingly isolated Russia and an opportunistic Turkey. Russia has become Turkey’s leading...

Amid talks of a new European security architecture, European countries no longer have the luxury of ignoring Türkiye.
Re-upping this piece from a year ago, in which I argued that it is a strong EU interest to strengthen security cooperation with Ankara.

Surrounded by superpowers, Kazakhstan walks a geopolitical tightrope Still a relatively young nation, Kazakhstan finds itself at critical juncture amid a series of domestic and geopolitical shocks.

Fresh off-the-press: I had the honor of contributing a chapter on Kazakhstan for the 2025 Atlas Freedom and Prosperity Around the World, the @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social's flagship publication: www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...

Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.

If you’re unsure why 🇹🇷🇪🇺 EU-Türkiye relations are important?

🔟-point-list 👇

————————

1️⃣ Germany’s 🇩🇪🇪🇺 economy (& by extension Europe) depends on 🇹🇷 Türkiye, and vice versa.

German 🇩🇪🇪🇺 supply-chains (not only trade) largely depend on China 🇨🇳, Poland 🇵🇱🇪🇺 and Türkiye

. . . Continued

Europe’s Four Different Ways of Handling Trump From vacuous moralizers to pragmatic engagers, European governments are divided once again.

Will Donald Trump divide and rule a Europe that is too weak to stand on its own feet?
My take in @foreignpolicy.com
foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/30/e...

I argue a bit similarly regarding the EU in this new piece www.cacianalyst.org/publications...

Renewed Horizons: Strengthening Central Asia-US Relations under the Trump Administration As the new administration charts its foreign policy course, a stronger Central Asia-U.S. partnership can serve as a model for mutually beneficial cooperation.

"The shifting geopolitical landscape presents the U.S. with a unique opportunity to adopt a more proactive foreign policy toward Central Asia," writes Uzbekistan's former ambassador to the US Javlon Vakhabov for @thediplomat.com

thediplomat.com/2025/01/rene...

Caucasus and Central Asia - different worlds? Not anymore. As trade routes are redrawn and diplomatic alliances diversified, the Caspian Sea is becoming a unifier rather than divider of the regions. The EU should develop a comprehensive strategy that recognizes this evolving geopolitical landscape.

The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership <p align="left"><strong>Johan Engvall</strong></p> <p><strong>January 22, 2025</strong></p>...

🆕 Read CACI's new Feature Article: "The Convergence of the South Caucasus and Central Asia: an Opportunity for a New EU partnership" by Johan Engvall (@jengvall.bsky.social).

🔗 Link here: https://buff.ly/40O6ibS

It is time for the EU to initiate a Trans-Caspian Partnership EU leaders’ decision to start accession negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine has put the final nail in the coffin of the Eastern Partnership which was never designed to handle enlargement. The time i...

In the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the desire to forge closer ties with the EU has increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

@jengvall.bsky.social, #SCEEUS, in NEE

@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @ecpr.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @euwatch.live @caucasussurvey.bsky.social

Opinion: 6 ways Ukraine’s Kursk incursion is changing the tide of war As becomes clearer with each passing day, the Ukrainian foray into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which began on Aug. 6, is no minor incident. Kyiv’s unexpected operation on Russian territory could fundamenta...

Ten years of insufficient support for Ukraine, coupled with many states' continued trade with Russia, have led Kyiv to shift from a defensive to an offensive stance.

My today's @kyivindependent.com article based on a #SCEEUS commentary.

@nordicukraine.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social

A Turn in the Russo-Ukrainian War? - SCEEUS SCEEUS Commentary | A Turn in the Russo-Ukrainian War? by Andreas Umland | Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies

The Ukrainian foray into Russian state territory deconstructs the image – inside Russia and around the world – of a seemingly static frontline, stable force constellation, and predictable course of the conflict.

@nordicukraine.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @konflikt-sicher.bsky.social

Global Dimensions of the Russo-Ukrainian War Essays – The Russo-Ukrainian War is a grand battle about both the future of Europe and the principle of inviolability of borders. In addition, the war’s course and

A Russian victory over Ukraine would have grave implications not only for the post-Soviet region, but far beyond it. Conversely, a Ukrainian success in its defense against Russia will have stabilizing and innovating effects far beyond Eastern Europe.

The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune

Anniversary of #Belarus2020 mass protests

Check out our special issue

“The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus”
by @gwendolynsasse.bsky.social & me
How can & should we analyze mass mobilization and its outcomes in authoritarian states as social scientists? www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War One aim of the surprise breakthrough may be for Kyiv to gain leverage in negotiations.

Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground but also tries to change the narrative on negotiations—from a “land for peace” deal to a “land for land” deal.

My today's piece in @foreignpolicy.com

@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social

"Ukraine’s Invasion of Russia Could Bring a Quicker End to the War"

...has now been for almost 24 hours the top story, number one editors' pick & most trending article on the website of @foreignpolicy.com.

Here is a gift link for free access to the text:

foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/09/k...

How Ukraine’s Fight Solves Global Problems Kyiv’s struggle, if successful, could reignite worldwide democratization and help speed along political transitions in other nations.

A Ukrainian victory and recovery may save not only Ukraine but also its neighbors from Russian imperialism. Ukraine’s fight also contributes to solving numerous larger problems of the world today.

@konflikt-sicher.bsky.social @dgoberlin.bsky.social @nordicukraine.bsky.social
@ukrainer.bsky.social

Pourquoi l'UE devrait remplacer le Partenariat oriental par un Partenariat transcaspien • desk russie Il est temps, pour une Union européenne géopolitiquement plus affirmée, de repenser géographiquement et d'élargir thématiquement sa politique orientale.

Dans les faits, le PO original s’est effondré, la ligne de démarcation nette entre le Caucase du Sud et l’Asie centrale se dissout rapidement, et une véritable dynamique transcaspienne émerge.

@jengvall.bsky.social in @deskrussie.bsky.social

CC: @ifri.bsky.social @geopolitique.bsky.social

Crossing Thresholds: Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Occupation | CSIS Russia does not have full control over the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. It is facing an astute insurrectionist campaign. This continued resistance to occupation will play an important r...

Very important and informative new Center for Strategic and International Studies-report by @drjademcglynn.bsky.social whose seminal book "Russia's War" is also highly recommended.
www.csis.org/analysis/cro...

The West can learn so much from Ukrainian resistance to russia.

My own country, Canada, is committing to buying a few conventional submarines.

But what I think we need are the equivalent price in Seababy and other water/underwater drones.