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Chaz Nuttycombe

@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

On X much more than here. President of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. #1 state legislative forecaster in the country. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org

4,931 Followers  |  76 Following  |  54 Posts  |  Joined: 01.07.2023  |  1.8155

Latest posts by chaznuttycombe.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Election forecasts show Democrats overwhelmingly favored in Virginia 2025 elections - State Navigate With less than 100 days until the general election, Virginia Democrats are heavily favored to sweep into power in this November's elections.

VA forecasts out now.

statenavigate.org/election-for...

28.07.2025 13:03 β€” πŸ‘ 23    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Get ready.

July 28th.

21.07.2025 22:04 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Are Virginia Democrats hopeless in Hopewell this year? - State Navigate The city of Hopewell is often overlooked in Virginia politics. This year, it features a highly competitive seat in the House of Delegates. But can Democrats overcome their off-year turnout issues in t...

Are Virginia Democrats hopeless in Hopewell this year?

statenavigate.org/are-virginia...

11.07.2025 19:38 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

You can find me on X for primary election content, or visit our site statenavigate.org/virginia

17.06.2025 00:11 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0
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Which Democratic candidate for Attorney General is the most electable? - State Navigate We're days away from Virginia voters selecting the Democratic nominee for Attorney General for the November election. So it's worth asking, who is the most electable of the two running?

Who is the most electable candidate for Attorney General on the Democratic side?

statenavigate.org/which-democr...

13.06.2025 13:07 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Fair, though his opponents were all Democrats.

05.06.2025 22:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Which Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor is the most electable? - State Navigate Democratic primary voters typically rank the perceived 'electability' of a candidate high in deciding who to support, so what are the strengths and weaknesses of each Democratic candidate for Virginia...

β€œI think who helps [Spanberger] the best I think is @aaronrouse.bsky.social" - VA GOP operative

statenavigate.org/which-democr...

26.05.2025 17:56 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Which Democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor is the most electable? - State Navigate Democratic primary voters typically rank the perceived 'electability' of a candidate high in deciding who to support, so what are the strengths and weaknesses of each Democratic candidate for Virginia...

New from me at @statenavigate.org: Democratic primary voters tend to rank a candidate's 'electability' high on their priority list for who they decide to support.

So, which Democratic candidate for Virginia Lieutenant Governor is the most electable?

statenavigate.org/which-democr...

25.05.2025 17:04 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1
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Home - State Navigate Your compass for state legislaturesState Navigate is a Virginia-based nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. COULD YOU SPARE THE COST OF: We’re not asking for much: just the equivalent of a fe...

State Navigate's Virginia site is LIVE.

statenavigate.org

24.05.2025 15:23 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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LIVE on @statenavigate.org South Carolina:

1. Social media links for 2024 candidates
2. Campaign finance details for 2024 candidates, including donations received and expenditures made. Includes sortable tables by name, date, and amount!

statenavigate.org/south-caroli...

09.05.2025 22:46 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0
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Wisconsin, Alaska, and West Virginia lead State Navigate priority launch contest After finishing our 3 pilot states by June, we'll use contest results to determine which states we work on next

Wisconsin, Alaska, and West Virginia lead the pack for the @statenavigate.org priority launch formula contest open.substack.com/pub/statenav...

29.04.2025 21:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Wisconsin, Alaska, and West Virginia lead State Navigate priority launch contest After finishing our 3 pilot states by June, we'll use contest results to determine which states we work on next

Wisconsin, Alaska, and West Virginia lead the pack for the @statenavigate.org priority launch formula contest open.substack.com/pub/statenav...

29.04.2025 21:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

KY MO RI

25.04.2025 16:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The following states do not qualify for our team to work at getting them out in 2025 because of a lack of survey votes, but there's still time to vote! –

WA OR ID WY ND SD KS LA VT MA

25.04.2025 16:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Jan Schakowsky planning May 5 retirement announcement The veteran House Democrat is facing a longshot primary challenge.

After being out-fundraised by @katmabu.bsky.social, Jan Schakowsky is retiring. politico.com/news/2025/04...

23.04.2025 18:09 β€” πŸ‘ 659    πŸ” 86    πŸ’¬ 39    πŸ“Œ 71
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State Navigate Launch Plan Survey State Navigate's aiming to launch in full for 25-38 states in 2025. You decide where we launch next! Take the survey below to help us decide.

Take our 1-minute survey to help us determine what states we should launch in this year! docs.google.com/forms/d/1-wM...

22.04.2025 14:49 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Take our survey and vote for what state we should launch in after SC UT VA!

22.04.2025 02:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Which state should State Navigate launch in next? You decide! A survey to help us gauge where our audience thinks we should launch next, with news about how we'll determine where to open up shop.

In a few weeks, we will have finished our first state, which will serve as a framework for building out elsewhere. What state should we launch in next? You decide! Check out the latest issue of our newsletter to see how: open.substack.com/pub/statenav...

21.04.2025 21:57 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1
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State Navigate’s 2025 Forecast Launch Fundraiser! State Navigate’s 2025 Forecast Launch Fundraiser! Event Information: WHERE: Montpelier Center for Arts & Education,Β 17205 Mountain Rd, Montpelier, VA 23192 WHEN: Sunday, June 29th, 3:00 PM…

EVENT ANNOUNCEMENT

@statenavigate.org will be launching its 2025 VA election forecast launch at its first-ever fundraiser on June 29th. Ticket-goers get to see the forecast 1 month before it becomes public.

Be there, or fall behind the competition!

statenavigate.org/launch-fundr...

19.04.2025 21:54 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If we're in a recession on Election Day 2025 as a result of all this, I think people should start to consider that there is a tangible, but minor chance Democrats create a supermajority in the Virginia House of Delegates this year.

06.04.2025 23:11 β€” πŸ‘ 39    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2
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State Navigate Your Compass for State Legislatures.

State Navigate: South Carolina (Pre-Alpha) is LIVE.

statenavigate.org

04.04.2025 00:46 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Coming next week on @statenavigate.org

26.03.2025 17:29 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Coming soon: @statenavigate.org, South Carolina.

17.03.2025 02:17 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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By the skin of their teeth, Iowa House Republicans have held their supermajority. x.com/ChazNuttycom...

12.03.2025 01:40 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Live thread for results. x.com/ChazNuttycom...

12.03.2025 01:13 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Thread from me on tonight's special in the Iowa House, where the GOP supermajority will be decided. I'm expecting a single-digit race based on all available info, but specials are less predictable than generals given the fluctuation in turnout between each special.

x.com/ChazNuttycom...

11.03.2025 22:13 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

and Ukraine. Obviously some of these issues (particularly Ukraine and inflation) weren't age-specific issues but IMO the Zoomer generation was one group that reacted the hardest against them.

19.01.2025 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Myriad of reasons include the Biden administration's war on nicotine, the Supreme Court gutting Biden's attempts at student loan forgiveness, inflation, the TikTok ban, Biden's age and the cover-up of his mental decline, alternative media being overwhelmingly conservative, Gaza

19.01.2025 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

When I turned 18 in the "resist era," Democratic politicians constantly uttered "the youth are our future." This is true, of course, and as the Boomer generation (which moved left in 2024) fades away and the Zoomer population grows, Democrats'll backslide if they don't fix it.

19.01.2025 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Zoomer generation took a hard turn right last year for a myriad of reasons, and it's something Democrats have to fix going forward unless they want to go the way of the dodo. A day before Trump takes office, they're off to a terrible start.

19.01.2025 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 17    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

@chaznuttycombe is following 20 prominent accounts