Chaz Nuttycombe

When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!

Insane

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The Rise of Chaz Nuttycombe: Forecast is good for 26-year-old polling prognosticator At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.

At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.

Alaska Navigate comes out Wednesday.

State Navigate turned out to be one of the most accurate pollsters in Virginia in 2025. Here's our analysis for why we beat the rest of the pack.
https://statenavigate.org/why-polls-underestimated-democrats-in-virginia/

Best fill out the apology form lad

Prime example of course are the college town seats. For example, they have HD-41 as Trump +4.4. That's inaccurate.

In actuality when using the formula that was applied to the same process for CAPs in 2021 and prior, it was Trump +2.9.

projects.statenavigate.com/districts/st...

So yeah this is a big difference between our 2024 data and VPAP's. I don't know what their formula was for 2021 but it's probably pretty much the same as ours.

We used the formula for provisionals in 2024 so when you look at @statenavigate.org's data for districts that year it's more accurate.

Seeing that provisionals were allocated was such a pleasant surprise today, doing the formula is a pain for our staff.

Fun story from 2017. When I first met @pwcdanica.bsky.social it was at an event when I was barely 18. I showed her my predictions for the House of Delegates which had her in a Likely D/Solid D race. She disagreed and said she was in a Toss-Up.

She won by 8.

State Navigate Experiment Shows how Pollsters Can Reach Young Voters - State Navigate Cultural competence goes a long way. We knew young voters would come out in Virginia this year, so we made sure we got them to answer our surveys.

As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm.

As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling.

statenavigate.org/state-naviga...

Too late WhichSide Digital did it

You can now go to @statenavigate.org and see shifts by precinct district and county in VA from 24 presidential. We have allocated non ED votes via formula where localities haven't allocated yet.

projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

meme bat signal

I'll make a deal with BlueSky: if someone on here does this I'll start posting on here more often

www.youtube.com/watch?v=43j8...

2025 VA Forecasts Take a look at State Navigate's 2025 Virginia forecasts.

the folks over at State Navigate also appear to have had a very good night with their forecasts in New Jersey and Virginia: projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

and their polling in VA (which I did the weighting for), both statewide and house districts, was also very good!

LIVE www.youtube.com/live/sFs9LbM...

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Final forecast t.co/7qcmYTDFp6

Election forecaster: Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race Election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe, executive director of State Navigate, told The Final 5 that his projections suggest Democrat Abigail Spanberger is a near lock to win Virginia’s governor’s race, w...

Spanberger "as certain as the sun" to win Va. Gov. race, says @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social, who successfully predicted all 140 House and Senate races in 2023. Here's part of our chat on #TheFinal5:
www.fox5dc.com/video/1733093

On Election Day I'll be streaming on YouTube tracking turnout, I'll make sure to post a link here.

Swing District in Chesterfield County Yields a Split-Ticket Election Result - State Navigate In House District 73 in Chesterfield County, voters are splitting their tickets this year.

NEW @statenavigate.org poll of VA HD-73

Governor 🔵 Spanberger +3
Lt. Governor 🔵 Hashmi +1
Attorney General 🔴 Miyares +7
House of Delegates🔴Earley +1

statenavigate.org/swing-distri...

Also to be clear I don't mean indefinitely I mean just on Election Night. If you want Election Night stuff for certain, we'll be posting it on X.

Hey y'all. So I gotta choose a platform to do most of my posts and it's gonna have to be X. I can't mirror everything. Make sure on Election Day you're keeping up with my account for turnout and race calls, may be able to post race calls here but IDK.

The Virginia gov polls are kind of all over the place.

TBC, variation isn't a bad thing. It suggests pollsters aren't herding, but Mary Radcliffe also picked up on an interesting trend that could be responsible.

She and @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social discussed it on the latest GD POLITICS pod:

Virginia Democrats Call for “Scottmander” Redistricting Session - State Navigate Nazi affinities, jokes about killing colleagues, speeding, and wishing for the death of police officers: just another month in Virginia politics.

In what is perhaps the most cutthroat move I've seen Virginia Democrats do in the General Assembly over the last decade, the General Assembly convenes tomorrow to try and begin the process of implementing a DEM gerrymander.

Here's your preview from me:

statenavigate.org/virginia-dem...

Also of note in VA-GOV is that Spanberger is winning the Richmond region (Richmond + Cville media markets in our regional clusters) by only 1pt less than she is in NoVA. She's knocking it out of the park in her homebase.

Our Virginia Navigate forecast updates at 8 AM Eastern. The biggest update will be in the AG race where Jay Jones has his slimmest-ever lead of just 4.6% in our forecast: AG is coming down to the wire. He has an 81% chance of winning at the moment.

projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

🔶Spanberger winning 68-29 among Moderates
🔶"Shy" Jay Jones voters exist: notice people who say they've already voted
🔶7% of Spanberger voters are voting for Miyares

Highlights:

🔶Among people who've already voted: Spanberger 64-35 Spanberger
🔶Among people who have yet to vote but plan to do so: 54-45 Spanberger
🔶Among independent voters: Spanberger 72-17
🔶Spanberger making large gains with lower income voters