Evan Scrimshaw

Canadian Media’s Early Election Hype Is Bad Journalism On Failures Of The Fourth Estate

Canadian Media’s Early Election Hype Is Bad Journalism and @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains why. #abpoli #cdnpoli
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Nenshi’s NDP On Track For Disaster Time To Treat This Like The Crisis It Is

A 10 seat loss of a disaster based on the latest polls.
@escrimshaw.bsky.social breaks it down. #ableg #abpoli

Nenshi’s NDP On Track For Disaster
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Scarborough Southwest: What On Earth Is Happening? On All The Implications

Wild day is an understatement. @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains. Scarborough Southwest: What On Earth Is Happening? #cdnpoli #onpoli
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Poilievre’s Confirmed As CPC Leader: What’s Next? On The Battle Reconfirmed

Pierre Poilievre, you've just bought yourself more time by stacking a vote in your favour! What's next?!

According to @escrimshaw.bsky.social probably nothing cuz he still can't pivot.

Poilievre’s Confirmed As CPC Leader: What’s Next?
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

#cdnpoli #abpoli

Carney’s Revival Of Political Courage On Ambirion And Achieving Outcomes

@escrimshaw.bsky.social has some solid thoughts on Carney’s Revival Of Political Courage
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

#cdnpoli

Davos: A Decent Start, But More To Do Carney Needs To Trust Canadians

@escrimshaw.bsky.social on Davos: A Decent Start, But More To Do open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

#cdnpoli

Legault Resigns: What’s Next For Quebec? On Today’s Shocking News

Good news for Quebec according to @escrimshaw.bsky.social - Legault Resigns: What’s Next For Quebec? open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Alberta’s Likely Early Election: Is Danielle Smith Vulnerable? Setting The Table On Alberta’s Plausible Snap Election

Yep, all of this. Smith could lose but only if the NDP run a very good campaign, and there's no signs at this point that they will.

@escrimshaw.bsky.social spells it out. #ableg #abpoli

Alberta’s Likely Early Election: Is Danielle Smith Vulnerable?
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Seeing a lot of seething about the Carney/Smith MOU today. I share the frustration because it's all politics and I don't think its going to translate into tangible nice things for us but if you want a good take or two, check out @escrimshaw.bsky.social and @djclimenhaga.bsky.social #ableg #cdnpoli

Memo To The Liberals: How To Win Edmonton-Riverview On The Upcoming Byelection

Riverbend is 100% takeable. 100% @escrimshaw.bsky.social has some sound ideas on how. #cdnpoli #abpoli

Memo To The Liberals: How To Win Edmonton-Riverview
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Ignore the fact that autocorrect screwed up my headline LOL

FWIW, Edmonton-Riverbend projection in the model right now:

LPC: 46.2 (+1.4)
CPC: 44.6 (-5.7)
NDP: 8.0 (+3.8)
Others: 1.2 (+0.5)

(Changes since 2025 election)

Clearly a winnable target for the LPC and a high priority for the party

Models, Polls, And The Liberals On Majority’s Edge Pre-Budget Model Update!

Xmas election glee in the media is unsettling, but it's not a given at all. @escrimshaw.bsky.social facting again. #cdnpoli

Models, Polls, And The Liberals On Majority’s Edge
open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Do The Conservatives Actually Want An Election? On Not Entirely Robust Assumptions

Do The Conservatives Actually Want An Election? @escrimshaw.bsky.social is not convinced. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha... #cdnpoli

Do The Liberals Want An Election? Questions To Which The Answer Is No

Do The Liberals Want An Election? @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains it all. And he's right. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Election Timing: Still 2027 At The Earliest Stop Buying Illogical Hype

Election Timing: Still 2027 At The Earliest. And @escrimshaw.bsky.social is right on the nose. open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Memo To Gregor Robertson: Toronto Can’t Be Allowed To Get Away With This Time To Force Toronto’s Hand

Yep, Robertson needs to find his spine and tell the Toronto city council to honour the deal or no money. @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains the details.

Memo To Gregor Robertson: Toronto Can’t Be Allowed To Get Away With This open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Alberta Byelections: If You Think This Is Fine You’re Not Paying Attention In Defence Of Standards

Been on the road socatching up on @escrimshaw.bsky.social today. The Alberta pundit take isn't this dire. But I think the Ellerslie result was not good. Sure, NDP held and I don't think they lose #yeg, but they won't capture Calgary if something doesn't change.

open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

@escrimshaw.bsky.social is right. Bill C - 5 is going to end up in endless, and long, legal battles, which will defeat the purpose. The need for speed shouldn't blind people to the necessity of avoiding the same thing issues that caused the problem in the first place.

Bill C-5: Well Intentioned Disaster Where Good Intentions Go To Die

@escrimshaw on how there's a better way to do this than C-5.

Bill C-5: Well Intentioned Disaster open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Carney’s (Other) Needed Cultural Revolution On How To Better Govern

@escrimshaw.bsky.social has the right of it here. There has to be room for criticism. Leaders shouldn't insulate themselves. The civil service needs to be proactive and responsive.

Carney’s (Other) Needed Cultural Revolution open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Nenshi’s Dangerously Nothing NDP Leadership On The Alberta NDP’s Crisis

I want to be more optimistic but I agree with @escrimshaw.bsky.social that not much as changed. ABNDP is still crutching on "UCP bad", which everyone knows and few care about. We need a vision for the future.

Nenshi’s Dangerously Nothing NDP Leadership open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Canada’s Foreign Policy Crossroads On Missile Defence And Options

As @escrimshaw.bsky.social points out, we need a real plan and a serious discussion. Personally though, if it runs along the lines of anything other than "Canada is doing this for Canada", I won't be pleased.

Canada’s Foreign Policy Crossroads open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Citizenship, And How To Fight Separatism Lies Won’t Keep Alberta In Canada

And if you want to read about how stupid of an idea it is, I suggest this column from @escrimshaw.bsky.social scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/p/citizenshi...

Citizenship, And How To Fight Separatism Lies Won’t Keep Alberta In Canada

I don't disagree with @escrimshaw.bsky.social on this but I don't trust the UCP. Would we be allowed by Alberta to keep citizenship is the question. They lie to us all the fucking time. So, 🤷‍♀️.

Citizenship, And How To Fight Separatism open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Conservatives Are Gaslighting Themselves On The Big Mistake Conservatives Are Making

The CPC learned nothing from their loss. Poilievre learned even less, if that's even possible, and @escrimshaw.bsky.social is right. This is very good news for the Liberals. Better than we cld've hoped for.

Conservatives Are Gaslighting Themselves open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Carney, Budgets, And A Rocky Week Reflections On This Week

All of this plus @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains what "tabling a budget" means in a way that the media doesn't bother to.

open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

NDP, Party Status, And The Entitlement Of The Powerless On Don Davies’ Asinine Quotes

Party status is earned. They fucked this up themselves. This is little different from Poilievre thinking he should get a gimme re-do for a seat, imo, but @escrimshaw.bsky.social can explain it better.

open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Lessons For Next Time: How To Manage Alberta Independence Smith And Moe Show Two Paths

I hate Scott Moe. He's worse than useless and a terrible person to boot, but it does look like Carney is about to enlist Moe's terminal self-interest to fuck over Smith and that will be a goddamn pleasure to watch. @escrimshaw.bsky.social explains it all.

open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...

Lessons For Next Time: Embrace Dissent Learning From One Of Trudeau’s Errors

Yep. Agree with @escrimshaw.bsky.social here. And as a side note, I was just a lowly campaign manager in a not even possible to win AB riding this recent election, but I noted a marked difference in the party. Far more accessible and it really helped.

open.substack.com/pub/scrimsha...