JPWeiland

Yes those with significant growth advantage absolutely have. I think most everyone else reading my post understood that was implied.

The growth rate in Germany was ~70% about 6 weeks ago.

Shot/chaser!

Within 3 hours of this tweet, we've had three massive flares!!

X8.1 🔆
X1.5 🔆
X2.7 🔆

Wow this could be an exciting week

Been busy with other priorities, but Ill get back to it sometime shortly. I just posted a thread on the strange BA.3.2 behavior, otherwise evolution has been pretty unremarkable lately.

BA.3.2 has had some impressive growth in multiple places off the bat, but has not been able to reach dominance anywhere yet. I don't think we know for sure yet, but it is starting to look like co-circulation.

We see this behavior with endemic viruses like flu, where multiple variants can exist without one replacing the other (H3N2 vs H1N1 vs Flu B). Niche partitioning has different susceptible groups based on immune histories, genetics, age, etc. New Covid variants have always swept the previous (below).

BA.3.2 is behaving differently than any of the other variants we've seen.

I've been wondering for some time if this is our first example of co-circulation, where only part of the population is susceptable to infection. It is starting to look stabilized in Germany, does not look like a sweep.

What a stupid waste of possibly the strongest impact in decades on a fully positive Bz. This better turn around

This would be overhead in Mexico if we had fully negative Bz

THIS IS EASILY THE STRONGEST SHOCK I'VE EVER SEEN.

Bt near 90 is insane! *Severe* solar storm inbound! If the Bz stays negative, this will be one for the books

Get your cameras ready for tonight! SWPC is predicting a G4 OR GREATER storm!! If that intensity is reached, expect it visible on camera all the way to the Mexico border

Everyone should block this account⬆️ fear mongering/troll behavior.

I can't express enough how nice it is to receive feedback like this in my replies!

It's a large part of what makes me continue to do this work.

I sincerely appreciate your feedback :) You're very welcome

I really appreciate these kinds of comments! You're very welcome

Subtype is tested for in many samples. We know for certain that it's H3N2. Come on now, stop with the fear porn.

If it was H5N1, and the IFR was *only* 1%, we'd have hundreds of thousands dead already in just the past few weeks. Is that what it looks like right now?

Smart I think!

⚠️Flu is at Very High levels across the US, looking as bad as last year.

Covid has reached High levels in the Midwest and Northeast, but remain low generally in the South and West. Overall Flu>>Covid at the moment because of the very high prevalence of H3N2.

Very proud to be a co-author on this comprehensive preprint on the novel, growing saltation lineage BA.3.2, together with @tuliodna.bsky.social‬, @darrenmartin.bsky.social, Dikeledi Kekana, and lead author @graemedor.bsky.social. 1/11
bsky.app/profile/tuli...

Fair point. I'm just saying that prevalence of Flu >> Covid at the given moment.

You don't believe wastewater data?

Walgreens ARI has flu nationally at 6/10 and Cov19 at 2/10.

There are a dozen states at 10/10 flu. Some NFL teams have up to 10 players currently ill.

Be careful out there!

On a weekly basis, nearly 700%. Nothing since has been even close.

two men standing next to each other with the words mmb says hold my beer ALT: two men standing next to each other with the words mmb says hold my beer

Seahawks-Rams on Thursday: Best game of the season!!

Bears-Packers:

Well, I think recent data suggests ~90% chance that BA.3.2 will quickly take over and replace the BA.2.86 (Pirola) lineages that dominated for more than 2 years.

50-80% weekly advantage noted in Euorpe in recent months is convincing that it's turned a corner

BA.3.2* still appears to be a bit of an enigma, with recent German sequences at only 1 out of 30. This suggests that there is still a lot of uncertainty in its fitness advantage.

It's clearly nowhere near dominant today if the samples are any bit random.

Now, if we see BA.3.2 saltn take off quickly in the spring, that will adjust the timing a bit for the South and Southwest's waves. Because yes, escape evolution, when strong enough, can manipulate the timing of the currently set in place seasonal trends for this virus. Those jumps are rare though.

Despite what some who aren't privy to the details claim, yes there are absolutely seasonally driven trends ON TOP OF the irregularity of sudden escape evolution.

I can confidently say that the northern states will have a similar modest winter peak this year and in '26, a Jul/Aug wave in the south

Uhhhh

Flu "Variant K" appears to be expanding rapidly in the US as noted in BIOFIRE data. Confidence is increasing that this will be a bad flu season.

A potentially concerning reassortment of HPAI H5N1 to H5N5 infected a man at his backyard bird farm in Washington state. He has since succumbed to the virus😔. No evidence of H-H transmission, but every roll of the dice creates more opportunities.

Nov 21st Update:

NWSS is back! After what may have been the lowest transmission rates since 2021, we are seeing rises again. Expect this to accelerate into the holiday season, especially in MW&NE
Estimates:

🔸150,000 new inf/day
🔸~1 in 220 currently infected
🔸~1 in 550 are significantly infectious