Peter Walkenhorst

Why the EU should use the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) against Trump's tariff threats over Greenland and what that would mean in concrete terms. Very good thread by @etiennehoera.d-64.social!👇

Major Events and Trends Shaping Europe and the World in 2026 As Europe enters a new year, EU leaders have set out an ambitious agenda: strengthening security, boosting economic competitiveness and growth, keeping deficits in check, defending democratic systems ...

It's a new year, and as usual our experts outlined key events and trends shaping Europe and the world in 2026: from geoeconomic vulnerability, to China’s next Five Year plan, the single market, security partnerships, the US midterms and more.

Read their insights here: bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th...

The Imperialism Has no Clothes JD Vance in Greenland

With Trump, we see American imperialism with no clothes. Naked and vain. American imperialism is not just morally wrong. It is strategically disastrous.
I wrote this essay in March 2025 when Vance visited Greenland, and it is unfortunately still too relevant.
snyder.substack.com/p/vance-in-g...

Trumpian Corruption Is Worse Than Ukrainian Corruption The people of Ukraine want an honest government, even as American and Russian kleptocrats circle their country.

The baroque corruption schemes playing out in America and Russia completely outclass the kickback scandal in Ukraine.

www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

Russland will bisher keinen Waffenstillstand.
Die USA glauben, wenn die Ukraine den Festungsgürtel im Donbass übergeben würde, wolle Russland doch Waffenstillstand.
Die Ukraine wird den Festungsgürtel nicht übergeben.
Die Europäer sind zu Sicherheitsgarantien bisher nicht bereit.

It was a privilege and a pleasure to participate in this workshop. Many thanks to @elenalaz.bsky.social and her great team at @eliamep.bsky.social!

Great summary the new US National Security Strategy by @brandonbohrn.bsky.social. Highly recommended!

The Putin-Witkoff Plan Worsens the War Five Reasons the US should not help Russia subjugate Ukraine

We have a US administration trying to bully Ukrainians into accepting Russia’s proposal that their sovereignty be undone. Aside from the naked injustice of this, there are five basic practical reasons why it would make the world far more dangerous.
(video)
snyder.substack.com/p/the-putin-...

🚀 November 4 @5:30pm ASTROPOLITICS screens at Delphi Lux in Berlin — a 63-minute journey from the Cold War’s space race to today’s crowded cosmos. Can space become a domain of cooperation, or will history repeat itself? free event, registration required: bit.ly/47xpM6L

A special thanks to our colleagues Jasmin Ruhnke and @pwalkenhorst.bsky.social @bertelsmannst.bsky.social for hosting us and our guest speaker Sebastian Daus for sharing valuable insights and contributing to a thoughtful discussion!

It was pleasure to participate in this event! Thanks for the insightful discussions.

Our RANGE forecasting workshop on the future of U.S. commitment to NATO’s eastern flank is a wrap. Special thanks to @linaskojala.bsky.social & @gssc-lt.bsky.social for gathering strategic thinkers for an insightful session. @tonysilberfeld.bsky.social @pwalkenhorst.bsky.social

1/2. The phrase "land swap" is being used to mean "Ukraine concedes land illegally occupied by Russia and also concedes territory that is not even occupied." That is not a swap.

A guess about a point Putin and Trump agreed on: that Putin won’t release the files about Russia’s campaigns to support Trump in 2016 and 2020 so long as Trump continues to aid Russia’s war.

Presseschau zum Alaska-Gipfel: "Widerlich. Beschämend. Und letztendlich nutzlos." International verurteilen Medien das ergebnislose Treffen von US-Präsident Trump mit Russlands Staatschef Putin. Insbesondere der Pullover Lawrows sorgt für Irritation.

International verurteilen Medien das ergebnislose Treffen von US-Präsident Trump mit Russlands Staatschef Putin. Insbesondere der Pullover Lawrows sorgt für Irritation.

Gipfel in Alaska: „Das Ganze hat eine Schieflage zulasten der Ukraine und der europäischer Sicherheit“ - Video - WELT Nico Lange, Experte für Sicherheitspolitik, sieht im Ausgang des Alaska-Gipfels keine gute Nachricht für die Ukraine: „Am Ende sind das dort zwei Leute, die nicht die Interessen der Ukraine, nicht die...

Trump und Putin: „Am Ende sind das dort zwei Leute, die nicht die Interessen der Ukraine, nicht die Interessen der Europäer verfolgen werden.“ www.welt.de/politik/ausl...

Hegseth halted weapons for Ukraine despite military analysis that the aid wouldn’t jeopardize U.S. readiness The move blindsided the State Department, Ukraine, European allies and members of Congress, who demanded an explanation from the Pentagon.

Hegseth, backed by Colby, stopped weapons deliveries to Ukraine without consulting others in the administration and despite evidence that the deliveries would not have a damaging impact on US stockpiles.

www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcn...

Klimapolitik: Strategie ist eben nichts für Feiglinge Die schwarz-rote Regierung könnte die ökofeindlichste seit Langem werden. Damit schadet sie nicht nur dem Klima und der Bevölkerung. Es ist auch machtstrategisch unklug.

Diese Regierung ist ohne ökologische Ambition und Emotion. Wichtigstes Ziel: wo wir überhaupt was machen, soll niemand was merken. Warum das nicht nur Natur und Mensch schadet, sondern auch der Regierung haben @PPinzler und ich aufgeschrieben www.zeit.de/2025/28/klim...

The Great Realignment Trump is giving the Russian dictator every incentive to keep killing Ukrainians.

Thanks to quieter decisions by members of Donald Trump’s administration, “the American realignment with Russia and against Ukraine and Europe is gathering pace—not merely in rhetoric but in reality,” @anneapplebaum.bsky.social writes:

Thanks to the @bertelsmannst.bsky.social team for your support to our @sciencespo.bsky.social students to manage the art of #forecasting!

Big thanks to @sciencespo.bsky.social for hosting our 2-day workshop on the art of forecasting! From methods to decomposition, students explored the future of transatlantic relations with sharp thinking & great energy Grateful to @aranchagonzalez.bsky.social, faculty & students for the warm welcome!

Was great to be back in the city I once called home for a 2 day workshop on the art of forecasting. Very refreshing to talk about the future of transatlantic relations with non experts but enthusiastic master students with different interests: health, development, environment, finance, economics!

Five things to remember about war:

Trump expects to be celebrated at the NATO summit for his success in Iran. And he certainly will be. But it’s a double edged sword for European NATO members, because the attack in Iran is how US will operate from here on. Unilaterally, opportunistically, overwhelmingly, one-off.

Interested in the geopolitics of space?
From mega-constellations to lunar ambitions, the stakes are rising. Join our space forecasting on RANGE and help shape the conversation @ rangeforecasting.org

Jäger: Darum geht es Trump mit Nationalgarde-Einsatz In Los Angeles protestieren Menschen gegen Razzien der US-Einwanderungsbehörde ICE und liefern sich gewaltsame Auseinandersetzungen mit der Polizei. Trump schickt daraufhin die Nationalgarde in die US...

www.n-tv.de/mediathek/vi...
Besten Dank an Jens Rupert für das Gespräch bei @ntvde.bsky.social . Trump geht es beim Einsatz der Nationalgarde um ein Instrument autoritärer Herrschaft.

Astropolitics How will politics, economics and security intersect and evolve in space?

Interested in the geopolitics of space? We’ve just launched a new RANGE category: Astropolitics!
To help us kick things off, make sure to weigh in on our latest questions: www.rangeforecasting.org/challenges/1...

RANGE forecasting question on astropolitics

As the U.S. and China ramp up their lunar exploration efforts, will their militaries take on a larger role? Share your perspective here: RANGE Forecasting | rangeforecasting.org

Putin Turns Peace Efforts to Rubble Europe must respond more rapidly and with greater determination to halt the Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine.

It is now up to Europeans to help Ukraine push Putin back toward peace and give diplomatic efforts the necessary strength. If Europeans prove too weak, they will encourage Putin to continue reshaping the European order by military means. @cepa.org
cepa.org/article/puti...

Putin spielt auf Zeit und führt weiter Krieg, auch im Telefonat mit Trump wieder. Ja, man wolle Frieden, aber es gäbe Nuancen, man sei bereit daran zu arbeiten uswusf. Währenddessen lässt er weiter angreifen.