Ziad Daoud

Signs of Saudi overspending: Aramco is borrowing to pay dividends

Signs of belt-tightening: government spending in April-June was lower than a year earlier

5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Trump Announces He’ll Meet With Putin in Alaska Next Friday Donald Trump plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska as the US president looks to broker an agreement that will bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

Trump announced he'll meet Putin, in Alaska, on 15 August

His ceasefire deadline passed on Friday – no new sanctions

Oil slid from $70 to $67 over the week

4/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US, Gulf Pressure to Fully Disarm Hezbollah Puts Lebanon on Edge Lebanon had been hoping this summer would see the return of tens of thousands of expats and tourists to the crisis-hit Mediterranean nation, spending money in resorts and restaurants and attending fes...

Lebanon government – under pressure from the US and the Gulf – wants to disarm Hezbollah

It asked the army to come up with a plan by end-August

Hezbollah called the move a “surrender strategy” in the face of “ongoing Israeli occupation”

3/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel to Seize Gaza City, Stopping Short of Full Takeover Israel said it will take control of Gaza City — a move that could displace 1 million Palestinians living there — defying domestic concerns over the fate of the remaining hostages and an international ...

Israel is escalating again: plans to take over Gaza City, potentially displacing 1 million Palestinians

Global backlash is growing
- Netherlands halted naval ship component exports
- Even Germany will freeze military supplies usable in Gaza

2/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Israel to Boost Leviathan Gas Supply to Egypt in Major New Deal Egypt will boost its contracted purchases of natural gas from Israel’s Leviathan field under a new agreement starting next year, deepening the country’s dependence on imports of the fuel for the long ...

5 things that happened this week:

Egypt will boost gas purchases from Israel

From 2026 to 2040
- $35 billion worth of gas, largest in Israel’s history
- Cheaper than liquefied natural gas for Egypt
- Risky: flows interrupted during Iran-Israel war

1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Lebanese Banks Seek Adviser for Talks on $80 Billion of Losses Lebanese lenders are preparing to appoint an adviser as they gear up for potential talks with the central bank over some $80 billion in claims, a pivotal step in untangling the financial crisis that h...

Lebanon $80 billion question:
Banks lent the central bank
The central bank lent the government
The government defaulted

Who takes the hit? 4 groups will share the pain:
• Bank shareholders
• Depositors
• Foreign creditors
• The Lebanese state

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

If Trump tariffs are bad for the economy, why is the stock market rallying?

Paul Krugman offers some explanations:
• Stocks aren’t good predictors of the economy
• Tariff damage is smaller than people think
• The AI boom is masking the impact

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/about-that...

Trump has doubled tariffs on India to 50%

Surprising? Maybe

But Robert Lighthizer - Trump’s former trade chief - listed so many complaints about India's trade policy in his book..

.. I couldn't even fit them in one screenshot

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

BCG consultants modelled relocating Gazans to Somalia Cost estimates of moving Palestinians to five destinations were included in project on postwar plans

"Boston Consulting Group consultants modelled relocating Palestinians to Somalia and Somaliland during a project on postwar Gaza
..
Multiple potential destinations were listed in a complex spreadsheet created on behalf of Israeli businessmen"

www.ft.com/content/2206...

Bloomberg Economics - CEE & Russia Economist

We're hiring: CEE & Russia economist

Location: Dubai, London, or any major city

Interested? Please apply here

bloomberg.avature.net/careers/Publ...

A Look Inside Jeffrey Epstein’s Manhattan Lair

"Ehud Barak, former prime minister of Israel, and his wife noted the great diversity of guests. “There is no limit to your curiosity,” they wrote in their message [to Epstein], which was compiled with others in January 2016"

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/05/u...

Lebanon Asks Army to Plan Arms Control Despite Hezbollah’s Defiance The Lebanese government commissioned the army to set out an action plan to keep all weapons in the war-weary country under state control by year’s end, a step that may ratchet up tensions between auth...

Lebanon: Government wants all weapons under state control by year’s end

It has asked the army to set out a plan

Hezbollah says it won't give up its firepower

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Norway Asks Wealth Fund to Review Israel Assets After Uproar Norway’s government ordered the country’s sovereign wealth fund to review all its investments in Israel after a report about its holding in an Israeli company linked to the war in Gaza triggered a pub...

Is Israel losing global public opinion?

Norway "government ordered the country’s sovereign wealth fund to review all its investments in Israel after a report about its holding in an Israeli company linked to the war in Gaza triggered a public outcry"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

My latest: Oil headwinds in one chart
• OPEC+ is flooding the market faster than planned
• Trump tariffs are chilling US growth
• Seasonal demand is propping up prices for now — but that won’t last

Full analysis on the Bloomberg terminal

So energy subsidy reform has the most fiscal benefit, as well as other advantages, unlike the tax measures
Not in the table: a carbon price, which at a modest level could bring revenues of 1% of GDP

If Saudi wants to shrink its budget deficit, what can it do?

This table from the IMF lays out the options & their impact

They include: reducing energy subsidies, a new property tax, spending cuts

Some are harder to implement politically than others

www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Aramco Profit Falls for a 10th Quarter as Weak Oil Hits Earnings Saudi Aramco reported a decline in profit for a 10th straight quarter as lower oil prices outweighed the impact of higher production.

Is Saudi overspending? Likely yes

Aramco is the latest sign: it's borrowing to pay dividends

Other indicators: Riyadh running both a budget deficit & a current account deficit — even when oil was at $80 last year

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The mathematics of starvation: how Israel caused a famine in Gaza Israel controls the flow of food into Gaza. It has calculated how many calories Palestinians need to stay alive. Its data shows only a fraction has been allowed in

"“The idea is to put the Palestinians on a diet, but not to make them die of hunger,” a senior adviser to the then prime minister, Ehud Olmert, said in 2006"

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

Trump’s Interest Rate Obstacle Is Bigger Than Powell Higher rates are the result of far more than Fed decisions. Debt, demographics, and deglobalization are all driving the price of money up.

"Something important has changed. For more than three decades, borrowing costs in the US — and around the world — were falling. Now, they’re rising"

Why?

"Read Bloomberg Economics’ new book | The Price of Money"

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Egypt pound is up 5% this year

This article by Mirette Magdy offers a few reasons:
• A weaker dollar
• Lower oil prices reducing the import bill
• High interest rates attracting hot money
• Locals shifting away from holding dollars

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

OPEC+ Agrees Big Output Hike to Finish Unwinding Round of Cuts OPEC+ will sharply hike production again in September to finish unwinding its latest tranche of supply cuts in a push for market share, but left a question mark hanging over its future options as glob...

OPEC+ approved another 0.5 million barrels per day increase in oil supply

That's over 2 million barrels added since May — 2% of global supply

Why? Theories:
• Appease Trump
• Punish quota cheaters like Kazakhstan
• Regain market share from US shale

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

إذا كان الشرق الأوسط ما زال يغذي العالم بالطاقة، فلماذا لا تحرك حروبه الأسواق؟

لسببين:

خارجي: واشنطن تعلمت درس السبعينات، فضمنت تدفق النفط رغم الحروب والقلاقل

داخلي: اعتماد دول المنطقة المتزايد على إيرادات النفط والغاز جعلها أكثر ترددا في استخدام الطاقة كسلاح سياسي

5/5

ثالثا: بالمجمل، الشرق الأوسط لا يزال يزود العالم بـ15% من طاقته — بما في ذلك المتجددة — تماما كما في السبعينات

الحصص تغيرت: تراجع النفط، وصعد الغاز

لكن أهمية المنطقة لم تتغير

4/5

ثانيا: الشرق الأوسط ينتج اليوم خُمس غاز العالم — من لا شيء تقريبا في السبعينات

السبب؟ دولتان: قطر وإيران

أو بالأحرى: حقل غاز واحد مشترك بينهما

3/5

أولا: الشرق الأوسط لا يزال ينتج ثلث نفط العالم — كما في السبعينات حين زلزل الحظر العربي الأسواق

نعم، النفط الصخري الأميركي صعد بقوة منذ 2010

لكن على حساب من؟ ليس المنطقة، بل أفريقيا وآسيا وأوروبا

2/5

في السبعينات، كانت أزمة واحدة في الشرق الأوسط تهز سوق النفط وتشل الاقتصاد العالمي

اليوم؟ حرب شاملة منذ سنتين تقريبا، ولا أحد يهتز

فهل فقدت المنطقة أهميتها بسبب النفط الأميركي والطاقة المتجددة؟

لا أعتقد

1/5

Why does sovereign recognition matter?

Because it is foundational to the current international system.

🧵

Slovenia Becomes First EU Member to Ban Arms Trade With Israel Slovenia has banned the import, export and transit of weapons to and from Israel, becoming the first European Union member state to do so in a bid to pressure the Israeli government over its war in Ga...

Canada and possibly the UK will recognise Palestine in September

Slovenia has banned arms sales to Israel — the Netherlands hit Ben Gvir & Smotrich with travel bans

The US? It’s sanctioning the PLO and Palestinian Authority

5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Dozens killed while seeking food in Gaza as US envoy heads to Israel At least 48 Palestinians have been killed while waiting for food at a crossing in the Gaza Strip. That's according to a hospital that received the casualties Wednesday.

"Worst-case scenario of famine" is happening in Gaza

Israel has restricted the entry of humanitarian aid into the territory

And now two Israeli human rights groups say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza

4/5
apnews.com/article/isra...

Oil climbed above $73 after new US sanctions on Iran and threats over Russian energy purchases

Then came weak US data — prices sank below $70 by week’s end

OPEC+ meets tomorrow, and traders expect another large supply increase

3/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...