Ziad Daoud

In January, Dina Esfandiary and I asked: Can Iran send oil to $100?

We laid out 3 conditions:

1. Existential pressure
2. Ability to strike intact
3. Decision-makers unified

Today, Iran meets all 3, and oil has breached $100

Oil is at $108 now

G-7 to Discuss Joint Emergency Oil Reserves Release, FT Says The Group of Seven finance ministers are set to discuss a possible joint release of oil reserves on Monday, the Financial Times reported, as the Middle East war chokes flows from the region and sends ...

Covered this possibility in my Sunday piece: not enough to replace lost Middle Eastern oil → "Group of Seven finance ministers will discuss a possible joint release of oil from reserves co-ordinated with the International Energy Agency"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Wrote this on Sunday

Oil is at $116

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts Countdown to a Global Energy Shock | Trumponomics

In this podcast, Stephanie Flanders asked me about the impact of the war on Dubai, and the Gulf more generally

My answer is around minute 12:00

youtu.be/bhCza9hrTGU?...

‘MAGA Is Split’: Trump’s War in Iran Divides America First Loyalists The military strikes — and their impact on the economy — have emerged as a grave political vulnerability for Republicans ahead of midterm elections.

"The White House went into overdrive this week to try to make the case for the strikes [on Iran]
..
It was a disjointed effort, with those top aides — and the president himself — offering wildly varying rationales for the attacks"

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

$3.7 Billion: Estimated Cost of Epic Fury’s First 100 Hours Operation Epic Fury costs nearly $900 million per day, driven by the large expenditure of munitions. Because most of this is not in the budget, the Pentagon will soon need to ask for more money.

What's the cost of the Iran war for the US?

CSIS analysts: $3.7 billion in the first 100 hours

That's about $900 million a day

www.csis.org/analysis/37-...

Tehran Engulfed in Fire, Smoke and Acid Rain Following Strikes Tehran’s residents woke up to a skyline shrouded in black smoke and acid rain clouds after Israeli airstrikes set ablaze key fuel depots serving one of the Middle East’s largest cities.

Iran: "Tehran’s residents woke up to a skyline shrouded in black smoke and acid rain clouds after Israeli airstrikes set ablaze key fuel depots serving one of the Middle East’s largest cities"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

UAE and Kuwait Start Oil Output Cuts After Hormuz Blockage The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait started reducing oil production, as the near-closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz ripples through energy markets and affects global supply.

The UAE & Kuwait started reducing oil production after Hormuz blockage

Also "Kuwait Petroleum declared force majeure — a legal clause allowing a company not to fulfill contractual obligations because of circumstances outside its control"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iraq Oil Output Plunges About 60% as Iran War Blocks Tankers Iraq’s oil production has collapsed by about 60% as the Iran war means there aren’t enough tankers to load the nation’s crude.

Iraq: "Oil production has collapsed by about 60% as the Iran war means there aren’t enough tankers to load the nation’s crude"

Production:
• Pre-war = 4.3 million barrels per day
• Now = 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Lindsey Graham’s Quest to Sell Trump on Striking Iran Few others in the president’s ear argued for the attack as effectively as South Carolina’s senior senator.

Lindsey Graham "traveled several times to Israel in recent weeks, meeting with members of the intelligence agency. “They’ll tell me things our own government won’t tell me”
..
He spoke with Netanyahu, coaching him on how to lobby the president for action"

www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

US Issues License to Allow Some Russian Oil Sales to India The US has cleared the way for India to temporarily increase its purchases of Russian oil, reversing months of pressure on the world’s third-largest crude importer as an escalating conflict in the Per...

"The US has cleared the way for India to temporarily increase its purchases of Russian oil
..
The decision marks a significant turnaround by the Trump administration, which had been putting intense pressure on New Delhi over its purchases of Russian oil"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Another market reacting to the Iran war: the Egyptian pound has weakened past 50 per dollar

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

When God Appears in Contracts, That’s ‘Force Majeure’ The new war in the Middle East has given fresh relevance to the legal term “force majeure.” It’s a clause that can be found buried in many contracts that lets a party off the hook in the event of some...

"When God Appears in Contracts, That’s ‘Force Majeure’"

"QatarEnergy declared force majeure so that it wouldn’t face penalties for missing contracted deliveries due to events beyond its control"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Saudi Arabia Has Intensified Direct Line to Iran to Defuse War Saudi Arabia has stepped up direct engagement with Iran to try and contain a war in the Middle East that is causing havoc and stressing global markets, according to several European officials.

"Saudi officials have deployed their diplomatic backchannel to Iran with greater urgency to de-escalate tensions and prevent the conflict from worsening .. Several European and Middle Eastern nations are backing these efforts"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

"US gasoline pump prices advanced to the highest level at any time under President Donald Trump, with the conflict in the Middle East disrupting energy supplies"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Gold Stuck in Dubai Is Being Sold at a Discount as War Widens Gold is being offered at a steep discount in Dubai, as the war in the Middle East grounds flights and hampers suppliers’ ability to move bullion out of the key trading hub.

"Gold is being offered at a steep discount in Dubai, as the war in the Middle East grounds flights and hampers suppliers’ ability to move bullion out of the key trading hub"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘MAGA Is Split’: Trump’s War in Iran Divides America First Loyalists The military strikes — and their impact on the economy — have emerged as a grave political vulnerability for Republicans ahead of midterm elections.

"The revolt of “Make America Great Again” influencers including Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Marjorie Taylor Greene, along with several GOP politicians, has produced a chorus of betrayal. “No one should have to die for a foreign country,” Kelly said"

www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Bessent Blasts JPMorgan Over ‘Terrible’ Oil-Insurance Analysis Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasted a JPMorgan Chase & Co. report for what he called “terrible” and inaccurate analysis about constraints over a US government lending agency’s ability to offe...

US Treasury Secretary blasted a JPMorgan analysis on insuring cargoes in Hormuz

The analysis:
• Development Finance Corp (DFC) has ~$154 billion of headroom
• Private market insurance gap ~$352 billion
→ DFC’s firepower is too small for the risk

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Global markets are reacting: stocks are down, gold is down, most emerging-market currencies are down, the dollar is up.

5/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Oil shot up from $72 to $93. Saudi Arabia is rerouting some crude to a Red Sea port. Iraq and Kuwait are cutting production as storage fills up. Qatar says it can’t guarantee gas deliveries.

4/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

There were attacks on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Most Middle Eastern oil and gas isn’t reaching global markets.

3/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Iran lashed out. It attacked Israel, US bases, and the Gulf states. In all, the war has reached about a dozen countries.

2/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

5 things that happened this week (Iran war special):

It began with Israel and the US striking Iran on Saturday, killing its supreme leader and other senior officials.

1/5
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

So I can pick only 5 things that happened this week?

Evidence suggests the deadly blast at an Iranian school was likely a US airstrike Satellite images and videos of an Iranian girls school damaged by large explosions at the start of a U.S.-Israeli airstrike campaign targeting the Islamic Republic indicate a targeted attack from the ...

"Satellite images, expert analysis & information released by the US & Israeli militaries suggest an explosion that killed scores of Iranian students at a school was likely caused by US airstrikes

More than 165 people were killed, most of them of children"
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Qatar Appears to Have Loaded First LNG Cargo Since Force Majeure Qatar appears to have loaded its first liquefied natural gas cargoes after the widening conflict in the Middle East forced it to halt fuel production and declare an unprecedented force majeure to buye...

"Qatar appears to have loaded its first liquefied natural gas cargoes after [it declared] an unprecedented force majeure
..
Yet the trip still depends on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
..
The tanker may serve as a storage until the route is open"

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Oil at $94 now

Oil is approaching $90