Federico Gueli

On the third point, the Court should take a measured approach in evaluating the methods and findings of UN bodies and NGOs, including by accepting testimony or affidavits from the principal investigators.

@mikebecker.bsky.social is the best on this:

4/🧵

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Proving Genocide: Genocidal Intent and Other Aims Genocidal intent coexists with other aims, and evidence from conduct and statements helps establish true purpose in Gambia v. Myanmar.

On the second point, the Court should accept the substantive point accepted by both the Gambia and Myanmar (!) that genocidal intent can coexist with other military or political aims:

3/🧵

www.justsecurity.org/131897/provi...

Elements of Genocide: Intent to Kill In Gambia v. Myanmar, the ICJ should interpret ‘intentionally’ killing members of a group to include both dolus directus and dolus eventualis.

On the first point, the Court should follow the Yugoslavia Tribunal and find that genocide includes killings with direct or oblique intent (dolus directus in the first or second degree) or depraved indifference (dolus specialis):

2/🧵
www.justsecurity.org/128222/eleme...

Paraguay's intervention in the Gaza genocide case offers a preview of Israel's legal arguments:

- Attacks on military targets that also kill civilians cannot constitute genocide

- Genocidal intent cannot coexist with other motives

- UN and NGO reports cannot prove genocide

1/🧵

This is a flagrant misreading of federal law and a possible violation of the 10th amendment. I am not sure how much it changes things on the ground in the short term, however. Most state bars have been hesitant to even consider complaints against DOJ attorneys, alas. Litigation likely.

American B-2 stealth bombers are expected to land at British military bases “in a matter of days” to join attacks on Iran. Bases at Diego Garcia and at RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, are being prepared for their arrival, Western officials said today.-Telegraph

🚨‼️🇮🇷𝐁𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆: 𝐔.𝐒. 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝐈𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐥𝐞𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐢-𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐆𝐮𝐥𝐟
1/4

Oman rescued the crew of a Malta-flagged ship hit by two missiles near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the state news agency.

The crew was saved after the vessel was targeted in the attack.

Although strikes by the US and Israel have reduced Iran’s launch rate, Tehran still has significant missile capacity and could extend attacks longer if it conserves its remaining missiles.

Source: NYT

Air France announces it will soon suspend flights to Cuba due to fuel shortages.

Source: AFP

Iranian Warship Sunk in Indian Ocean by US Navy submarine, Over 80 Dead - Naval News Submarine periscope footage released by the Department of War showed a torpedo striking beneath the stern of IRIS Dena, raising the vessel off the water. Sri Lanka's Deputy Foreign Minister Arun Hemac...

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegeseth stated that a US Navy submarine sank the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena (75) off the coast of Sri Lanka
www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2...

Iranian War
Anger at the gas station, fear for growth: Why the Middle East crisis could become a real problem for Merz
via Der Spiegel
(Translated)

My brain already hurts from imagining the despair, hunger, smuggling, dark market, sex trafficking, slavery, illicit trade, terrorism that are bound to emerge once this fiasco continues. Am I dooming? Maybe. But it's a legit concern.

I will politely skip the Taliban - even with the Talibs doing everything they can, they couldn't stop the creeping in crisis, with millions of new citizens, even before Pakistan attacked. Who will pay? Noone there will pay. It's us. The EU again.

Iran is about to lose state capacity to control and maintain stability of fleeing Iranians, while Kurdish and Balochi areas already are looking like they will soon be abandoned by IRGC.

Both Iran and Pakistan have been for the last year, expelling millions of refugees from Afghanistan back, some long-term, with their arrival dating back to Soviet invasion.

Most of refugees will be fleeing inwards or across the borders, but UN agencies quite literally have no resources, with their budgets cut once again last year.
I expect us, the European Union, to fund it all in big quantity, no way the United States will pay for destruction they cause.

Well, Hezbollah again commits suicide and invites Lebanon's doom in the process.
Dying for Ayatollahs thousands of kms away. We are about to face a refugee crisis of unbelievable proportions from Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan, parts of Pakistan. And it's still just day 5.

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez on Iran:

Women’s rights must never be used as a pretext to launch wars that serve other interests.

If we truly believe in the freedom of Iranian women, the answer cannot be more violence.

It must be more diplomacy, more support, and more international law.

OSINT Conflict Map and Update

The UK government stated it is prepared to respond to threats and may target Iranian missile sites. The US plans to deploy heavy bombers to UK bases for potential attacks, emphasizing defensive measures and support for allies.

#OSINT #Iran #USA

🇶🇦 Qatar is shutting down its LNG liquefaction at Ras Laffan, declaring force majeure on exports, - Reuters

Restarting production will take at least two weeks, and another two weeks to reach full capacity, meaning global LNG supply could be disrupted for about a month amid regional conflict.

Massive non-stop bombings are ongoing across Tehran as joint US-Israeli strikes intensify significantly over the last 24 hours, with explosions also reported in Bushehr, Tabriz, Isfahan and Baneh. #Iran

Bessent: "Over the weekend, Lloyd's of London nullified the insurance, so the US government is going to step in and provide safe passage through the straits for the oil tankers"

The economy, stupid.

Yes of course but no special sub variant. Usually we see things that went up so fast being pushed down only by other variants and this is not the case

Hi @siamosolocani.bsky.social yes, it does seem so

Without any special variant rising

U.S. operations in Iran.

The head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kain:

• The US will expand its strikes deep into Iran.

• More than 20 Iranian military ships have been destroyed.

• The number of missile strikes from Iran has decreased by 86% compared to the first day of combat operations

An Israeli Air Force F-35I “Adir” fighter jet shot down an Iranian Yak-130 aircraft over Tehran a short while ago, the IDF says.