Stephen Vickers

Please keep an eye open for dead & dying Whooper Swans (and other waterbirds), see thread below on how to report for possible sampling & please also report to @birdtrack.bsky.social so we can start to build a comprehensive picture of the spread 👇🏻

My apps that visualise trends in the BTO annual ringing and NRS reports have been updated to include the 2024 data, which was released yesterday.

Change over time plots: stephenvickers.shinyapps.io/ringing_tota...
Spatial trends maps (ringing only): stephenvickers.shinyapps.io/ringing_map/

Iceland Whooper Swan expedition 2025 This summer, we're back in Iceland for the next chapter of our research - here’s an update from across our three current main work areas..

Our Whooper Swan expedition has been a blur of hauling zodiacs over tundra, coaxing engines through salt spray & dancing with Iceland’s untamed waves. While our waterproofs are still drying, we’ve gathered the stories data & moments that made this trip 👇🦢

www.linkedin.com/pulse/icelan...

🦠 SAVE THE DATE! 🦜

I'm excited to announce that the theme of the 2027 BOU conference is Avian Disease Ecology!

📍 Nottingham, UK
📅 6–8 April 2027

🔗 Full details: lnkd.in/gPvFFDJe

Please share widely!

#BOU2027 #Ornithology #WildlifeDisease #AvianDisease #EcoHealth

Map of whooper movements between sightings of colour rings

Heatmap of sightings

Flock of colour marked Whooper swans in flight

The Whoopers are starting to move and will soon be back on their Icelandic breeding grounds! Since @waterbirdcm.bsky.social started ringing Whooper Swans in 2023, we've tagged >600 inds. and gathered >750 sightings. Please keep an eye out and continue to report any sightings to us as they leave!

Asymptomatic infection and antibody prevalence to co-occurring avian influenza viruses vary substantially between sympatric seabird species following H5N1 outbreaks - Scientific Reports Scientific Reports - Asymptomatic infection and antibody prevalence to co-occurring avian influenza viruses vary substantially between sympatric seabird species following H5N1 outbreaks

First PhD paper out now, revealing co-circulation of high and low pathogenicity subtypes of avian influenza virus via antibody testing in a range of co-occuring seabird species.

Huge thanks to all involved!

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

In Feb 23 we undertook a census of the UK naturalised Barnacle Goose population. The aim to produce an updated population estimate & report on winter distribution. Results have now been published in @britishbirds.bsky.social, with our thinking on future monitoring needs #Ornithology 1/7 ⬇️

If the app doesn't give you any life history (it's instant, not via email), it either hasn't been added by IBGRG to the data the app uses or the ring code entered is incorrect.
You could instead email the sighting email irishbrentgoose@gmail.com, but it sounds like you aren't having much luck there

Apologies, I'm only responsible for developing and keeping the sightings app functional, I'm not part of IBGRG or responsible for keeping the data the app uses up to date. If you haven't already, I would try submitting the sighting through the app, as that should give you life history of the bird

A special thanks to my co-authors and funders. This work was completed as part of my PhD thesis at @biouea.bsky.social/@uniofeastanglia.bsky.social partnered with @audubon.org

10/10

We think this is because dispersal into new breeding areas is always passed to the next generation when born there – you only need to return to a known location. Conversely, a new non-breeding site isn’t automatically passed to the next generation.

9/10

A Estimated shifts in non-breeding centres of abundance 1970–2019 for 81 analysed species in Model B. Arrows are coloured by migratory flocking behaviour – age-separated flocks (light-blue), mixed-age flocks (dark-blue) and solo (red) and transparency is set according to reciprocal error in estimated shift, such that more transparent arrows indicate lower confidence in estimates. B Phylogenetic tree of the 81 species analysed for shifts in Christmas Bird Count annual centre of abundance and incorporated into the Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares (PGLS) model. Nodes are coloured by migratory flocking behaviour – age-separated flocks (light-blue), mixed-age flocks (dark-blue) and solo (red). C Estimated marginal mean annual shifts in Christmas Bird Count centre of abundance 1970–2019 for migratory flocking behaviour based upon 81 species of North American migratory birds in a Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares (PGLS) model incorporating uncertainty in shift rates and controlling for biological and demographic traits. Error bars indicate standard error

Flocking was associated with significantly larger non-breeding range COA shift rates, particularly in mixed-age flocks. However, flocking had no significant effect on breeding range COA shifts.

8/10

Phylogenetic Generalised Least Squares (PGLS) model coefficients for predictors of annual shift rates (metres per year) of Breeding Bird Survey (left) and Christmas Bird Count (right) centres of abundance between 1970 and 2019. Model A assessed migratory flocking as a binary flocking vs. solo migrants for 122 species. Model B refined the assessment of migratory flocking differentiating between species that flock in age-separated and mixed-age flocks, for a reduced pool of 81 species. Red points indicate significant results inferred from credible 95th percentiles (error bars) that exclude zero

The data goes into PGLS models weighted by uncertainty in COA shift rate.
One model for each season for a binary flocking var. for 122 species. Another model for each season where we categorise flocks as either age-separated or mixed-age, for 81 species.

7/10

N.B.: We do still lack published accounts of typical migratory flocking behaviour for many species! This includes whether a species flocks, typical flock size, age composition, species composition, etc.

6/10

Examples of the methodology for assessing overlap in timing of migration between age cohorts using banding data, showing examples of a species with high cohort overlap and thus concurrent migration timing of age classes (Vesper Sparrow Pooecetes gramineus, A–C) and a species with relatively low overlap and thus non-concurrent migratory timing (Sharp-shinned Hawk Accipiter striatus, D–F). After initially fitting GAMs to latitudes of banding events across the year for hatch-year and after hatch-year age cohorts of a given species across all USGS banding events 1960–2019 (A and D), we restricted the dataset to the autumn migration period, assessed as the temporal region where latitude shows a clear negative trend and refit the GAM models (southward migration; B and E). We then normalised the GAM-predicted mean latitudes for each age class to a 0–1 scale and calculated the overlap in area under the curve as an index of cohort temporal overlap during migration (C and F)

We collated information on migratory flocking behaviour of North American migratory birds, building upon the Beauchamp et al. 2011 dataset with species accounts from Birds of the World Online and age-cohort timing calculated from USGS banding data.

5/10

To test this, we used 50-years of North American BBS and CBC #citizenscience data to quantify annual centres of abundance (COA) for breeding and non-breeding ranges across the contiguous USA and southern Canada. We then summarised the magnitude of the shift in COAs.

4/10

Pathways of seasonal range colonisation in migratory species. Migratory innovation can occur when individuals or groups make novel movements (F1), which can arise from (a) exogenous mechanisms (e.g., drift by winds or geomagnetic anomalies), exploratory dispersal within a seasonal stage, or abmigration (following other species), as well as (b) through the emergence of novel endogenous navigation programmes. Successful colonisation depends on their offspring (F2) or other conspecifics repeating the novel migration route in subsequent years. In solitary migrants (c, d), innovations are unlikely to be transferred if they originate from stochastic drift or dispersal, as F2 individuals will continue to follow inherited programmes to the original range (c). Novel endogenous navigation programmes can similarly only be transferred to F2 in solitary migrants if they are genetically heritable (d). In social migrants (e, f), by contrast, route innovations can be transferred between generations if F2 individuals follow returning F1 innovators on return migrations, regardless of whether the initial innovation mechanism was stochastic e or endogenous f

We hypothesised in species that migrate solo, inter-generational change may need change in genetics of migration distance/direction.
However, flocking migrants can benefit from social learning, which might act faster – but inter-generational learning can only happen in mixed-age flocks!

3/10

Species may need to shift their range to respond to environmental change, but for migrants this can be tricky as seasonal ranges that shift at different rates/directions can require a change to migratory distance/direction.

2/10

New paper published today in Movement Ecology! We show North American birds that migrate in flocks have greater long-term non-breeding range shifts, particularly if flocks are mixed-age.

We link this to social learning in novel migration route development.

rdcu.be/d57Mw

1/10

#ornithology

New paper! If you use time-lapse cameras, this one's for you!

Proud of this collaboration with UEA Computing Sciences' Marcus Jenkins & Michal Mackiewicz to improve object detection for time-lapse imagery using temporal features. 📷🖥️⏲️

Open Access in Sensors: mdpi.com/3088004

PhD Candidate in Evolutionary Ecology (271754) | NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology Job title: PhD Candidate in Evolutionary Ecology (271754), Employer: NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Deadline: Monday, January 27, 2025

📣PhD position open in our group!📣
Come work on a super fascinating system: partial #migration in European shags. #Fieldwork, theoretical #modelling and #QuantitativeGenetics are all possible depending on interests. Please spread to good candidates of any nationality! www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

The latest movement maps of our @waterbirdcm.bsky.social naturalised Barnacle Goose ringing programme. Here's the annual movements from the 14 UK breeding colonies we've marked birds at. Thanks to everyone who contributes sightings! Map thanks to @stephen8vickers.bsky.social #Monitoring

First GPS tracking evidence of Icelandic Whooper Swans wintering in the Netherlands 🇳🇱! Whilst we know that small numbers of Icelandic birds winter in the 🇳🇱, this is the first we've tracked. Great insight into their journey to 🇳🇱 via 🇬🇧 & how long they stay there 👌🏻 @stephen8vickers.bsky.social

The BTO Ringing and NRS report 2023 data has now been added to my visualisation apps:

Explore graphs of numbers ringed etc. and NRS records over time:
stephenvickers.shinyapps.io/ringing_tota...

Explore a map of numbers ringed, etc. by region:
stephenvickers.shinyapps.io/ringing_map/

A special thank you to my co-authors, The Royal Veterinary College, VEEPH, the FluMap Consortium, and all our funders.
8/8

This method is quick, doesn't rely on costly widespread surveillance in wild birds (only in poultry), and can help focus where wild-bird surveillance efforts may be best targeted.
7/8

Between periods 1 (Oct ’21-Feb’22) and 3 (Aug ’22-Jan ‘23) we also found expansion of species groups associated with outbreaks. Landbirds and seabirds became more strongly associated with outbreaks, reflecting expansion in wild species impacted by HPAI.
6/8

Narrower species groups show our method picks up associations in groups we already thought were important, like wildfowl (ducks, geese, etc.), amongst some change across periods, like non-native gamebirds post-release. Unfortunately, not many seabird species could be tested.
5/8

But focussing on single-species is risky because patterns may match by chance when testing so many, so we look at consistency across groups of species.
Period 2 is ~spring/summer ’22 (not many poultry outbreaks), 1 & 3 are the autumn/winters either side (lots of outbreaks).
4/8

This gives us lots of species- and period-specific associations with HPAI outbreaks, most of which were positive (only positives shown here)
3/8