@edwardnh.bsky.social
Journalist at Bloomberg. Author of The Everything Risk newsletter.
Donald Trump’s Super Pac has amassed almost $200mn thanks to a big injection of cash from the crypto industry, giving the president an enormous war chest ahead of the 2026 congressional elections. on.ft.com/4m08Qf1
04.08.2025 16:30 — 👍 59 🔁 31 💬 7 📌 11
Musk gifted 96 million shares by board www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
04.08.2025 10:46 — 👍 4 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 1”If we get similarly weak numbers next month, the Fed may even do a 50bps cut. Behind the soft headline numbers, actual job growth might be even weaker given distortions from B-D (birth-death) adjustments”
04.08.2025 01:57 — 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0On the worsening labor market:
”The July release was remarkable not just for the downside surprise in NFP and extremely large revisions, but the upward move in the UR to 4.248%, a smidge away from rounding up to 4.3%.”
- Steve Englander, Standard Chartered
”one should not be under the illusion that the proliferation of private sector “big data” indicators over the past decade can substitute for high quality federal data… these indicators are benchmarked to the federal data, as private sector data are very rarely nationally representative”
JPMorgan
FYI
bsky.app/profile/calc...
Goldman: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k”
03.08.2025 00:09 — 👍 827 🔁 194 💬 20 📌 81
”It’s hard to depend on that data, if the data can’t be depended on.”
01.08.2025 23:26 — 👍 10 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read:
Trump’s first BLS Commissioner, Bill Beach, calls today’s firing groundless and dangerous.
www.friendsofbls.org/updates/2025...
None of the US data will be believable now. The US is basically an emerging market. It has none of the hallmarks of a trustworthy advanced economy
01.08.2025 23:03 — 👍 63 🔁 15 💬 4 📌 0
Trump's dream of building a ballroom at the White House is becoming a reality - $200 million
www.npr.org/2025/07/31/n...
JayPow, you watching this?
Elon Musk’s Boring Co. Is Turning Into a $900 Million Flop www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
My take: Musk is all about subsidies. There weren't enough subsidies on offer to scale as with his other businesses Tesla and SpaceX. Even SolarCity had that problem until Tesla bought it
😭
31.07.2025 19:39 — 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Tesla’s ‘robotaxi’ rides in San Francisco have a human at the wheel www.theverge.com/news/716867/...
31.07.2025 17:28 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Powell made clear his view is representative of the overwhelming majority of FOMC members - most outside of Waller and Bowman. So that means a shadow dot plot has just one cut in 2025 by my reckoning.
Chances of zero cuts this year are increasing
/END
First, Powell said "early days". That means, as long as the labor market doesn't crater he wants to wait.
Second, he said the pass through of tariffs looks to be importers eating margin and eventually higher prices.
Both of those things argue for NOT cutting anytime soon
/2
On the Fed and tariffs:
"I think you have to think of this as still quite early days... And the evidence seems to be mostly not paid, paid only to a small extent through exporters lowering their price"
via @weisenthal.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Some thoughts /1
”Roughly 15 percent of the sample in the other 72 areas also was suspended from collection, on average. Collection suspension affects both the Commodity and Services Pricing survey and the Housing survey
-BLS on data collection impact of staffing shortages
”To align survey workload with resource levels, BLS suspended data collection for portions of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) sample in select areas across the country starting in April.”
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
Donald Trump’s New Crypto Bible Is Everything the Industry Ever Wanted www.wired.com/story/donald...
31.07.2025 15:55 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0Mexico just got another 90-day extension
31.07.2025 15:14 — 👍 13 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0
"Our internal estimates show that the effect tariff rate was only about 9-10% in May... Recent announced tariffs suggest we could easily see a doubling of the effective tariff rate between now and the end of the year"
via @dianeswonk.bsky.social
kpmg.com/us/en/articl...
Eric Trump’s stake in a four-month-old Bitcoin mining venture could be worth $367 million when it goes public in coming weeks
31.07.2025 14:04 — 👍 30 🔁 18 💬 24 📌 12DOGE:
"The BLS has reduced data collection and the scope of some surveys due to staffing challenges over the past year. In February, prices for less than 10% of commodities and services in the CPI collection effort were based on imputation. By June, that share rose to 35%"
AI and tariff have caused job cuts to leap higher www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
31.07.2025 12:20 — 👍 6 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 2
The Tesla Model X And Model S Are Dead In Europe
insideevs.com/news/767444/...
A lot of the inflation numbers you see are down to guesswork
30.07.2025 20:32 — 👍 28 🔁 10 💬 2 📌 6
Powell Must Resist Political Pressure
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
Trump: "The Fed needs to cut"
30.07.2025 20:15 — 👍 10 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0This isn't just a beat. It's a mammoth one
30.07.2025 20:13 — 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
