Ben Loehrke

a man says " this place has everything " while holding something in his hand ALT: a man says " this place has everything " while holding something in his hand

Program changes. Unrealistic baselines. Staffing shortages. Government shutdowns. Gag orders. Industry hesitation...

Because this program is destined to radically update baselines for "extreme" cost growth.

www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

What else could a defense acquisition program do to set itself up for failure?

www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Analysis | State Department deleted records about risk of inadvertent nuclear war Key historical records about the incident during the Regan administration, known as the Able Archer 83 War Scare, were removed without explanation.

State Department deleted records about risk of inadvertent nuclear war from foreign relations publication - records that are still available in public. Trump fired independent committee tasked to oversee the records and seeks to replace it with loyalists. www.washingtonpost.com/investigatio...

Deadline approaching.

Apply today to take part in our upcoming oral history training workshop and interview project.

Hoping to reduce travel barriers so that we can provide a comfortable environment for a diverse cohort of participants!

Excited to launch this project with @basicint.bsky.social!

Our new FAS Nuclear Notebook on Russian nuclear forces is now available. We estimate a stockpile of just over 4,300 warheads, modernizations, but also delays. Earlier STRATCOM projection of significant increase in tac nukes has not yet materialized. www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

#NPTPrepcom #UN Join me on May 5th at the @nti.org's side event during the NPT Prep Com, where a great panel will be examining how crises, both natural and human-made, challenge the resilience of nuclear facilities. www.nti.org/events/stren...

Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2025 to 2034 CBO estimates that plans for U.S. nuclear forces, as described in the fiscal year 2025 budget and supporting documents, would cost $946 billion over the 2025–2034 period, $190 billion more than CBO's ...

New from the Congressional Budget Office: “Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2025 to 2034.” This edition finds total annual costs have jumped to $65.9 billion—up $13.5 billion or 26% since CBO’s 2023 report. Projected costs over the next decade are $946 billion, up $190 billion since 2023.

In Memoriam: Mac Destler | Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland

Back in grad school, Mac organized and had me manage the 2008 election predictions pool for the policy school.

He and I legit won 1st and 2nd place.

He taught me many lessons on policymaking. Including why we need fair and impartial election officials. Thanks, Mac.

cissm.umd.edu/news/memoria...

Disentangling the Nexus of Nuclear Weapons and Climate Change—A Research Agenda Abstract. Global warming and nuclear war are frequently described as the world's greatest threats. Both challenges could be understood as expressions of mo

🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament.
Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...

Ensuring Cyber Resilience in NATO’s Command, Control and Communication Systems | Appendix II: Nuclear Sharing

Beyza Unal and team at Chatham included a useful background section and appendix on NATO NC3 in their 2020 report on cyber resilience.

Wish there were more open source resources on this. www.chathamhouse.org/2020/07/ensu...

Pentagon Cuts Threaten Programs That Secure Loose Nukes and Weapons of Mass Destruction Documents obtained by WIRED show the US Department of Defense is considering cutting up to 75 percent of workers who stop the spread of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons.

New from me: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is asking for Pentagon agencies that do work overseas to plan for cuts of up to 75%.

These agencies say the cuts will "increase risk to US due to pathogen spread and easier adversary pathways to develop WMD."
www.wired.com/story/pentag...

ATTENTION NUKE NERDS: We’re hosting a one-week, in-person OSINT bootcamp to teach a new generation of open-source nuke investigators. If you’re an early- to mid-career nuclear weapons analyst, this bootcamp is calling for you.

Apply today ▶️ fas.org/osint-bootcamp-2025/

🚨 Nuke/OSINT nerds—we have an incredible new opportunity for you!

This summer, @scientistsorg.bsky.social is hosting a first-of-its-kind Open Source Nuclear Analysis Bootcamp, where you will learn to analyze:
- Satellite imagery
- Missiles
- Fuel cycle
- FOIA requests
- Much more!

Apply by 23 Feb!

The Bulletin should bring in guest DJs. I need better lists of apocalypse bops and metal that really dooms.

A table titled "Atomic Bomb Narratives," which compares the properties of three different narratives about the use of the atomic bomb during World War II. Each narrative is a column, with each row corresponding to one of 7 different narrative properties: "nature of the use decision", "motivation(s) for use of bomb", "outcome necessary for surrender?", "originators", "genre", and "message". The first narrative is labeled "orthodox/the decision to use the bomb." Nature: "moral deliberation." Motivation: "avoid invasion." Output: "ended war, saved lives." Necessary: "yes." Originators: "government officials who made/dropped bomb." Genre: "heroic." Message: "the ends justify the means." The second narrative is labeled "revisionist/atomic diplomacy." Nature: "diplomatic intrigue." Motivation: "flex on Soviets." Output: "began Cold War." Necessary: "no." Originators: "critics, Marxists." Genre: "tragic." Message: "don't trust the US government." The third narrative is labeled "consensus/bureaucratic inertia." Nature: "accumulation of assumptions." Motivation: "multiple, overdetermined." Output: "contributed to end of war (with Soviet invasion)." Necessary: "maybe, maybe not." Originators: "academic historians." Genre: "comedic (chaotic)." Message: "history is really messy."

I am fairly pleased with this table that I cobbled together for a guest lecture next week on the different narratives about the use of the atomic bomb in World War II, and creating an example of ways in which they can be compared to each other in an overarching way.

From Crust to Core: Analyzing North Korea’s Fissile Material and Strategic

Tomorrow: "From Crust to Core: Analyzing North Korea’s Fissile Material and Strategic Resource Production" with Sulgiye Park

RSVP here⤵️
cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/crust...

The Secret Pentagon War Game That ​Offers a Stark​ Warning for Our Times Nuclear confrontation is fundamentally a form of communication — even after the first blows fall. Some in government see it

The Secret Pentagon War Game That ​Offers a Stark​ Warning for Our Times. Want to know more about the Proud Prophet wargame discussed in this weekends NY Times magazine? Link to the (heavily redacted) report as well as memos between CIA and DOD below.

dnyuz.com/2024/12/02/t...

2025 Fellows Scheme Applications Now Open! Are you interested in researching and having impact in nuclear arms control and disarmament? Do you want to join a community of scholars and practitioners exploring innovative ideas in the field of…

Are you an early career scholar/practitioner interested in researching and having impact in nuclear arms control and disarmament?

If so, apply now for the Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age 2025 Fellows Scheme. #NukeSky

atomicanxiety.com/2024/11/14/2...

Roundtable on Nuclear Security in Conflict Zones

Excited for this roundtable next week, co-hosted with the Project on Managing the Atom. Featuring remarks from Rabia Akhtar, @mbudjeryn.bsky.social , Ruhee Neog, Matt Bunn, and Eli Levite.

If you're in the neighborhood, drop in.

www.belfercenter.org/event/roundt...

Plenty of instances of signaling and coercion on U.S.-Russia hotlines. NRRCs not immune from that.

YouTube video by The International Institute for Strategic Studies Missile pre-launch notifications as a risk reduction tool

The notification itself seems outside the letter of the launch notification agreement.

Defer to wiser folks for info on that. Via IISS

youtu.be/AEufcVJfXgs?...

Russia notified the U.S. of the missile launch via the nuclear risk reduction centers.

The NNRRC is a low-key, essential success case in crisis prevention mechanisms. Generally not good when it’s part of breaking news.

So where do things stand on this whole question of whether Russia launched an ICBM against Ukraine or not?

Here's a short 🧵 wrapping up a lot of good observations by experts, plus a few of my own....

Starter Pack for Nuclear Weapons History and Politics. Most of these folks are within the broader #NukeSky world.

If I've missed you, please let me know if you would like to be added or suggest anyone else who should be on this!
👉 go.bsky.app/KDiibQK

Well earned. Congrats, Hans.

To new followers and friends, Welcome to the good place.

You can also follow our work via @stanleycenter.bsky.social .

Social Science Research Assistant in Dean of Research, Stanford, California, United States Professor Scott Sagan is seeking a tenacious research assistant with first-rate analytical capabilities and outstanding academic credentials to...

🚨 Job Alert 🚨

Stanford’s CISAC is hiring a Research Assistant for the 25/26 academic year for Scott Sagan. Application window closes December 1st.

Amazing opportunity to work with one of the best academics in the nuclear & international security field.

careersearch.stanford.edu/jobs/social-...