Georgi Engelbrecht

Looks like Pynchon is having a moment. #pynchon #lot49 #iykyk

Through the Tempest: The Philippines’ Defense Posture in Troubled Waters Domestic challenges threaten to derail the military’s efforts to upgrade its capabilities and reorient itself toward new strategic priorities.

thediplomat.com/2025/11/thro...

U.S. Unveils Philippine Task Force to Deter Chinese Coercion - USNI News This post has been updated with a statement from U.S. Pacific Fleet. American and Philippine defense secretaries unveiled a task force designed to deter Chinese coercion in the South China Sea and enh...

news.usni.org/2025/10/31/u...

"While the size and scope of Task Force Philippines is unclear, the initiative follows the previously established Task Force Ayungin."

Bangsamoro's regional government statement on the peace agreement signed 13 years ago.

🎊 30 years ago, @crisisgroup.org was born from the international community’s failure to prevent war in Bosnia.

Last weekend, we returned to Sarajevo - where it all began - for our board meeting, joined by every past president.

Here’s to the next 30 years of peacebuilding.

US, China to roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

US and China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea – Reuters: ‘China said it had started to collect the special charges on U.S.-owned, operated, built, or flagged vessels but clarified that Chinese-built ships would be exempted from the levies.’

Today would have been Bangsamoro's first parliamentary election.

The polls, however, have been postponed.

I recorded this podcast a few week ago before this latest plot twist:

open.spotify.com/episode/12uS...

YouTube video by International Crisis Group Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

Watch the recording from the discussion about #Philippines #defence Modernisation & 🇵🇭 -🇺🇸 #alliance

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9lq...

www.crisisgroup.org/how-we-work/...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

Registration:

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

ONLINE EVENT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

25 August | 8am Bangkok | 11am Canberra | 9pm Washington DC

w/ Lindsey W. Ford, Rommel Jude Ong, @duriandiaries.bsky.social, and @le2huong.bsky.social.

Registration ⬇️

us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

A good thread for anyone interested in Philippine geopolitics.

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

Asia’s Military Modernisation: A Special Series | International Crisis Group The rapidly changing global security environment is raising concerns in Asia, prompting increased military spending and policy shifts from a number of countries in the region. This series explores how...

10. And stay tuned for more deeply researched reports and analysis in our series:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort | International Crisis Group As they watch Beijing become more assertive in the South China Sea, Philippine leaders are adapting the country’s external defences while tending to partnerships with the U.S. and others. To manage th...

9. Read more in our @crisisgroup.org report on the Philippine defence modernisation:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

8. Lastly, deterrence needs to be complemented by diplomacy too.

Crisis management channels with Beijing remain important to navigate the unruly waves.

7. Funding, procurement procedures and the force structure remain other critical parts of the equation for modernisation.

Maximising defence partnerships, and working on the nuts and bolts of establishing a truly joint force, remain key tasks as well.

6. There are still gaps: It is not easy to develop a strategic culture that moves from land-based threat perceptions to a more maritime approach and a strategy that both looks at the South China Sea and the northern Philippines as critical theatres.

Asia in Flux: The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium | International Crisis Group The U.S. and China are reshaping the Indo-Pacific security architecture. As China rises, and the U.S. sends mixed messages about its intentions, Asian countries are beefing up their own militaries. Be...

5. Increasingly dangerous confrontations at sea risk more distrust and even armed conflict.

The recent events near the Scarborough Shoal are a case in point.

But also regionally, the Indo-Pacific security architecture is in flux:

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

4. The modernisation effort is unfolding amid growing tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea; worries about a confrontation between the U.S. and China over Taiwan; shifting geopolitics; and uncertainty surrounding the second Trump administration’s policies.

3. Manila is increasing its defence acquisitions, augmenting its military partnerships and deepening its alliance with Washington.

It tries to balance the “hardware” of new equipment with the “software” of thinking beyond jungle warfare/counterterrorism towards coastal defence.

2. The shift is still a work in progress.

But under President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr., the Philippines is modernising its military capabilities and accelerating efforts to change gear from counterinsurgency to territorial and external defence.

1. I have spent the last days in the Bangsamoro region in the southern Philippines.

But despite the ever-present security challenges and the complex peace process, another trend is evident: The re-orientation of the Armed Forces of the Philippines. 🧵

NEW REPORT | Riding Unruly Waves: The Philippines’ Military Modernisation Effort

Under President Marcos, the Philippines is shifting focus from internal to external threats amid increased great power competition.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia-pacific...

'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans The Philippine government's acquisition of twelve more FA-50 light combat aircraft will not diminish the chances of acquiring other multi-role fighters (MRF) as these are different platforms that would enhance the Philippine Air Force's (PAF) fleet.

'We need more': PH Air Force says acquisition of multi-role fighters still part of plans

As we mark our 30th anniversary, new challenges lie ahead and our work remains essential at a moment of danger for the world.

As @comfortero.crisisgroup.org explains, putting a spotlight on conflicts that are neglected, often deprioritised, or off the radar remains essential.

NEW REPORT | The U.S., China and the Search for a New Equilibrium

As China projects its advancing military capabilities and the U.S. sends mixed messages about security assurance, Washington and Beijing should resume talks to manage any risks of escalation.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

"With so much of Philippine power concentrated in the capital with varying degrees of devolution to local vassals, Malacañang’s hand is never truly hidden."

President Lai’s First Year Sees Increased Tensions across the Taiwan Strait | International Crisis Group As Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te completes his first year in office, cross-strait relations have become especially fraught. Crisis Group expert William Yang explains why Taipei and Beijing are incr...

As 🇺🇸 Def Sec warns 🇨🇳 attack on Taiwan “could be imminent”, @CrisisGroup takes a look at Taiwanese Pres Lai Ching-te 1st yr.

➡️Cross-strait relations are esp fraught.

➡️Taipei & Beijing are increasingly at odds. 

⬇️ Here’s what can be done to lower temperature.

www.crisisgroup.org/asia/north-e...

Anwar asked about Chinese coercion of Philippines in SCS. Says ASEAN “working towards” code of conduct (🤔) but right now “no real clarity”. Says PRC-Phil tensions “exaggerated” & “no way out except engagement”.