David Brady

Look at what happens to male teacher salaries (blue line) v.s. female teacher salaries (red line) after collective bargaining laws expire.

1/Kevin Hassett had long ago discredited himself as a scholar by parroting claims about the economy he knew to be false. Even so, parroting the lie about rigged statistics, is a new low. The academy should ostracize him the same way a fabricator of research should be ostracized.

The Anti-Abundance Critique on Housing Is Dead Wrong Antitrust critics say that homebuilding monopolies are the real culprit of America’s housing woes. I looked into some of their claims. They don’t hold up.

“In too many cases, the antitrust-housing argument is an assertion, referencing an assertion, backed up by yet another assertion. It’s vibes all the way down.”

open.substack.com/pub/derektho...

President Trump called into question the integrity of the Employment Situation report that the BLS released this morning. He accused BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer of deliberately reporting false numbers to reflect poorly on this administration. This baseless, damaging claim undermines the valuable work and dedication of BLS staff who produce the reports each month. This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system. The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news. The Commissioner does not determine what the numbers are but simply reports on what the data show. The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference. The BLS uses the same proven, transparent, reliable process to produce estimates every month. Every month, BLS revises the prior two months’ employment estimates to reflect slower-arriving, more-accurate information. This rationale for firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit and undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of intelligent economic decision-making by businesses, families, and policymakers. U.S. official statistics are the gold standard globally. When leaders of other nations have politicized economic data, it has destroyed public trust in all official statistics and in government science. We call on Congress to respond immediately, to investigate the factors that led to Commissioner McEntarfer’s removal, to strongly urge the Commissioner’s continued service, and ensure that the nonpartisan integrity of the position is retained. The statement from the President undermines these tenets and politicizes data which cannot and should not be used for political points.

"...escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence & integrity of the federal statistical system.

"The president seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.

"...firing Dr. McEntarfer is without merit & undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics..."

"The function of #sociology, as of every science, is to reveal that which is hidden."

"Every established order tends to produce the naturalization of its own arbitrariness."

✒️ #PierreBourdieu, French sociologist, anthropologist, and philosopher, was
#BOTD 1 August 1930.

L.A. homelessness down for 2nd year: 4 takeaways from count USC researchers involved in count explain key findings on L.A. homelessness.

Nice coverage of the small but promising progress on homelessness in LA. 2025 shows progress for 2nd year in a row - esp in unsheltered & chronic homelessness.

Really admire the work my USC colleagues are doing.

today.usc.edu/homelessness...

There’s an ungated copy of the article here: bradydave.wordpress.com/wp-content/u...

Definitely more change in beliefs.

I have thought on it and prayed about it, and I have decided: I am running to be the next U.S. Senator from North Carolina.

This is an extremely informative resource. Visualizes range of estimates of minimum wage estimates across a large number of studies. Also really illustrates which studies are outliers.

Commentary: Trump's order on homelessness gets it all wrong, and here's why There are no simple answers for homelessness — or addiction or mental illness — but Trump's bluster is no substitute for desperately needed resources.

On the heels of the grandstanding & empty executive order by Trump, Steve Lopez has a smart piece about the elderly homeless.

www.latimes.com/california/s...

NYPD hails ‘record low’ number of NYC shooting victims for first half of 2025 New York City recorded its fewest number of shooting victims in three decades — and the second-lowest murder rate — in the first half of 2025, NYPD officials said.

For all the talk about violent crime in cities, anarchy in the subways, etc., NYC is on track to have the lowest murder and shooting rates in 75 years.

www.nydailynews.com/2025/07/01/n...

Agreed, great movie. And nice Substack post.

But it’s interesting how poor/mediocre Beane’s draft class performed ultimately. Two pretty good players. But no stars and a few busts.

Shows prediction is still very hard even with good statistics, right?

…does Larry Summers think he could be appointed Fed chair? Does he need to have a merger approved??

Translation for non-scientists. The major funder for cancer research in the world is now only funding proposals that score in top 4 percent. They’re funding roughly 2/3 fewer proposals than they had in recent years. I suspect the funding line has actually never been this low.

“Higher education policy in the United States is now being developed through ad hoc deals, a mode of regulation that is not only inimical to the ideal of the university as a site of critical thinking but also corrosive to the democratic order and to law itself.”

USC signals layoffs as deficit surpasses $200 million amid 'volatile external environment' Layoffs will be implemented at USC, interim President Beong-Soo Kim said in a letter to the university's faculty and staff on Monday.

It’s hard to not believe Athletics are a big part of the underlying problem in the story about USC below.

www.latimes.com/california/s...

Chancellor Julio Frenk suggests he'll be actively involved with UCLA athletics Julio Frenk, UCLA's new chancellor, spearheaded an overhaul of the University of Miami's athletic department. Will he do the same in Westwood?

This piece about UCLA’s new Chancellor mentions that UCLA Athletics has run up a deficit of $220 million over past 6 years.

Seems safe to assume UCLA is not alone.

I don’t know if it’s fully realized how much $ is being spent on collegiate athletics.

www.latimes.com/sports/ucla/...

Not the poster obv, but Trump. And the follow up suggests it is real:

bsky.app/profile/pale...

So dumb, I have to ask: Is this real?

The death of the public intellectual is Hailey Bieber the new Susan Sontag?

substack.com/@thedigitalm...

The Dean’s List (@deanbowen) This might be the funniest thing you see today! 😂

substack.com/@deanbowen/n...

On Data and Democracy (Mid-Year Roundup): Charting the Assault on American Democracy and A Path Forward A narrative of a democracy in the balance, told through 29 data visualizations.

Been a busy year in the data mines.📊 Just published my mid-year roundup: 29 data visualizations on the state of US democracy, tracking everything from judicial resistance to billionaire influence to why Dems have a mobilization crisis, not a moderation problem.

All charts free to use:

New Medicaid work rules put states in a bind Previous efforts to set work rules in Georgia and Arkansas showed it can get messy.

The new #Medicaid work requirements are basically a giveaway to federal contractors like Deloitte, Accenture, and Maximus. Likely to end in super expensive systems that won't work well.

GA spent $100M at a cost of $13k per enrollee. 👎

www.axios.com/2025/07/14/m...

What I mean by this is the broader higher education community does a lot of free labor for rich universities (I have no idea the net redistribution, but it’s a good question). As well, rich universities depend on a broader system they arguably don’t subsidize enough.

Duke School of Medicine plans salary cuts for tenured faculty who do not meet grant expectations Set to go in effect in 2026, the proposed policy would apply to the School’s basic sciences units. These units rely heavily on grants from the National Institutes of Health, which have been increasing...

👀

What a time to propose this policy:

"Duke University School of Medicine (SOM) plans to implement new faculty productivity guidelines that would tie tenured professors’ salaries to external research funding, according to documents reviewed by The Chronicle"
www.dukechronicle.com/article/2025...

Opinion | A Damaging Endowment Tax Crosses the Finish Line Some even more punitive proposals were passed over, but this will still sting.

In the final bill, it appears there will be some big increases in taxes on highly endowed universities.

The motivation for this is bad, and it’s unlikely to be redistributed to less rich universities. But hard to be bothered by huge endowments being taxed.

www.chronicle.com/article/a-da...

My specialization is papers without impact.

You’re better at this than me :)

Can you predict which papers will be successful?

By success, I mean smooth reviews & quickly accepted or have big impact or get into top journals.

I’ve been surveying the more famous scholars I might know. And they uniformly say they can’t predict.

Nice to see our recent AJS article featured in Contexts! @evangelinewarren.com