WeatherTiger

WeatherTiger's 2025 Hurricane Season Review We've got 67 problems, but the 2025 hurricane season wasn't one (on the Gulf Coast, anyway).

Find out why in my 2025 Atlantic hurricane season-in-review, out now. Pour yourself a tall glass of nutritious, delicious beef tallow and let’s take a look back on the dizzying highs and soporific lulls of a bizarre season that defied logic, convention, and, often, convection.

Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week.

The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.

WeatherTiger's Hurricane Melissa Update for October 28th Melissa ties the record for strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall, devastating Jamaica.

Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.

Hoping for the best for Jamaica.

As I laid out yesterday, this is a cataclysmic wind, surge, and flood event for Jamaica. I will have an update this afternoon on how landfall played out, but for now, please keep Jamaica in your thoughts and prayers. They need them.

#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.

WeatherTiger's Category 5 Hurricane Melissa Forecast for October 27th Melissa is on track to be the most severe hurricane landfall in Jamaica, and one of the worst anywhere in the Atlantic Basin on record.

#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.

Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.

Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:

Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.

New forecast discussion out later this morning.

WeatherTiger's Tropical Storm Melissa Forecast for October 23th Melissa, churning in the Caribbean, is a major hurricane threat to Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, but continues to pose little risk to the continental U.S.

#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.

We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.

My latest on this potentially intense storm:

With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.

The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.

Sour Melissa: The Hurricane Watch for October 21st Newly-formed Tropical Storm Melissa is a major threat to the western and central Caribbean, though there remains almost no risk for the continental U.S.

Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.

However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.

My latest on #Melissa:

Spanish for The Niña: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 16th The official onset of La Niña conditions may boost late-season development prospects in the Caribbean next week, which is an area worth watching for U.S. interests.

If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.

YouTube video by Weather Tiger, LLC WeatherTiger Discusses Late Season Hurricane Risks, Taylor Swift on Fox Weather

Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!

A Swiftly Tilting Gyre: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 8th With no U.S. threat from Jerry, I take a look at the life of a Central American Gyre and whether one is likely to develop this October.

Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?

In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.

Very cool long water vapor loop of #Humberto and #Imelda between September 28th and October 1st from College of DuPage, btw.

Whirlwind Tour: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for October 1st Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania and looking at historical October hurricane risks.

Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology.

All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:

WeatherTiger's Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast for September 27th PTC 9 is expected to approach the Carolinas in around 3 days, with an uncertain forecast thereafter.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 will strengthen to a tropical storm and move north-northwest through the Bahamas this weekend.

Our latest on an uncertain forecast for potential coastal rain and wind impacts for Florida north to the Carolinas:

TS #Humberto and #Invest94L continue to be features to watch closely. The bigger threat, Invest #94L, should follow a steering channel east of #Florida this weekend. #Carolinas have a higher chance of a direct landfall early next week.

Thursday update here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/dont-call-...

Folie à Deux: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 24th Making sense of the chance that two tropical systems interact east of Florida early next week, and what that means for possible U.S. weather impacts.

One year after Helene/Milton Hurricane Hell Fortnight '24, milder double trouble is here as #Invest93L & #Invest94L may track close enough to interact this week. Odds tilt away from major U.S. impacts, but worth watching from #Florida to the Carolinas.

The latest on a possible Hurricane Heck Week:

Never Ending Math Equation: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 17th TS Gabrielle forms but is no threat, as we look at how AI is making an impact on hurricane forecasts.

For the 1st time in 84 years, correction, 3 weeks, there is a storm in the Atlantic: Gabrielle, a strung-out mess that poses no risk other than to Bermuda.

With a quiet Atlantic continuing, I'm taking a deep dive into AI weather/hurricane prediction this week. Am I about to be replaced by Skynet?

Stolen Thunder: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 10th Hurricane season has fallen. Can it get up? We develop a new model to address that question.

Thanks for reading and here's hoping that the luck of the 1st half of hurricane season can last through the 2nd half. After a record 10 major hurricanes in 9 yrs we need a break on the Gulf Coast.

Check out my full analysis of late-season landfall risks here:

So, the war between favorable ocean & hostile atmospheric conditions may persist in the final third of hurricane season and U.S. landfall risks.

WeatherTiger's model of post-9/20 Gulf/W. Carib tropical activity is a bit above normal but not nearly as busy as 2020/24 late seasons.

The 2nd key predictor of post-9/20 Gulf/W. Carib activity is September ridging over the SE United States. More Sept. ridging is correlated with more hurricane activity.

Sept. 2025 has been the exact opposite of this pattern so far: persistent deep troughing over the eastern U.S.

Only Gulf & W. Caribbean (west of 75W) activity post-9/20 translates to more late season U.S. landfalls.

SSTs are 1 key predictor of late season Gulf/Carib storms. More activity is linked to warm Caribbean/C. Atlantic, colder Pacific/Nina conditions. Sept. 2025 resembles that.

Conditions in the east Atlantic may become more conducive for waves to develop in the next week.

But that may not translate to U.S. landfall risks. After 9/20, more hurricane activity east of the Lesser Antilles is actually linked to slightly fewer late-season U.S. landfalls.

In short, nearly the entire Atlantic Basin has seen less convection (tstorms) than normal over the last month because of persistent sinking air aloft and mid-level dry air incursions.

Convection is the building block of tropical cyclones, so no convection, no hurricanes. 2/7

If you follow the Tropical Atlantic, you might be confused like our friend Vincent Vega here by the lack of any named storms since August 28th, a timeframe that is the climatological peak of #hurricane season.

So what's going on, and will it continue? Thread: (1/7)

Stolen Thunder: Hurricane Watch Weekly Column for September 10th Hurricane season has fallen. Can it get up? We develop a new model to address that question.

If like Travolta here, you're confused by the quiet peak week of hurricane season, we’ve got you covered. Today’s column breaks down the reasons for this lull and rolls out fresh predictions from our model of late-season U.S. landfall risks.

Bottom line, stay light on your feet like Johnny.

[Annual post]

Convection crippled by the dry air that keeps on blowin'
Subsidence imposin'
And we

Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
And we keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE
Keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding ACE

Shear cuts waves open

With Invest 91L succumbing to dry air and subsidence and no longer a threat to develop, here's a look at this morning's NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: