The NHC post-analysis report for #HurricaneMelissa is out now.
Estimated maximum sustained winds were nudged upwards to 190 mph at #Melissa's peak, tying Hurricane Allen (1980) for the highest ever recorded in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.
Winter is back in #ExtremeNorthernFlorida and it's going to stick around for awhile.
The latest on Florida's continued abnormal cold (and miniscule but non-zero chances of snow or ice) in today's forecast update:
While #Florida will not see snow/ice from this weekend's massive Winter Storm Xenawarriorprincess (name unofficial), a historic cold pattern follows.
#Tallahassee may see 8 or more freezes in a row beginning Tuesday. That's only happened 12 times since 1892, most recently in 2010. #FLwx
Saw the rarest of winter beasts on snowy I-10 this morning: three FL Dept. of Transportation snowplows. They do exist!
Click for a field report from "Operation Siberian Tiger:" a voyage into the savage, snowy heart of the tundras/caves of extreme northern #Florida:
www.facebook.com/weathertiger...
Snow falling in the western #Panhandle with rain/snow line roughly from Santa Rosa Beach to just west of Marianna as of 8am ET/7 CT.
Little hope of frozen precip in #Tallahassee so I'm chasing this one personally out to Marianna!
Saturday Night Florida Snow Update:
Rainfall is kicking up along the Gulf Coast tonight, which will probably change over to a few hours of mixed rain/snow or wet snow Sunday morning in the NW #Florida Panhandle and south Georgia.
My latest here, back tomorrow morning with more:
Very cold morning in #Florida, with #Tallahassee dropping sub-20 for the 1st time since Dec. 2022 and rural upper 20s for south to Lake Okeechobee.
Still watching Sunday morning for a chance of light snow in the #Panhandle, followed by another deep freeze Monday morning. #FLwx
North #Florida, are you ready for the transcendent winter magic of 37-degree rain?
Is snow possible? It’s in the realm of the possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. Weighing the odds of another round of #Panhandle winter whimsy and how this possible #FLwx storm is very different than last year's:
That change in the models makes the weekend forecast worth watching, as a substantial minority of GFS and European ensemble members do have at least some flurries north of I-10.
I'll have an updated write-up about Florida's snow chances out tomorrow morning. #FLwx
Do you believe?
I'm still skeptical of North #Florida's weekend snow chances, but model guidance has trended much stronger over the last day with the "kicker" disturbance over the Plains that could wring out a little snow behind a front Sunday morning across the #Panhandle. 1/2
Now is the winter of our social media #content, as chatter ripples of southern winter storm threats.
Does the jet stream pattern ahead check the necessary boxes to square the circle and bring #Florida winter whimsy back in 2026?
My monthly off-season newsletter has much-needed historical context:
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS GRAY MATTER!
17.12.2025 19:08 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Matt is right on the money. This is a vindictive attack on public safety.
17.12.2025 19:03 — 👍 8 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
People are saying that Russ Vought's brain is a solid chunk of lead. Many people are saying this.
17.12.2025 18:17 — 👍 7 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 1
Find out why in my 2025 Atlantic hurricane season-in-review, out now. Pour yourself a tall glass of nutritious, delicious beef tallow and let’s take a look back on the dizzying highs and soporific lulls of a bizarre season that defied logic, convention, and, often, convection.
25.11.2025 19:49 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Hurricane season 2025 ends in less than a week.
The 2025 season has the distinction of having the lowest proportion of total Atlantic tropical activity (ACE) occurring near or over the continental U.S. of any year since 1950: a measly 0.2% versus a typical 4 to 5%.
Wrapping up a brutal and singular day in Atlantic hurricane history, as #Melissa takes its place at the limits of the fury that a tropical cyclone can unleash.
Hoping for the best for Jamaica.
As I laid out yesterday, this is a cataclysmic wind, surge, and flood event for Jamaica. I will have an update this afternoon on how landfall played out, but for now, please keep Jamaica in your thoughts and prayers. They need them.
28.10.2025 13:11 — 👍 9 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 1
#Melissa is hours away from making landfall in west-central Jamaica and continues to intensify. Minimum pressure has dropped to 896 mb, which makes Melissa the 7th Atlantic hurricane on to breach 900 mb. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 180 mph, tied for 6th-strongest ever in the Atlantic.
28.10.2025 13:10 — 👍 13 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
#HurricaneMelissa will reach Jamaica tomorrow morning at or near Category 5 intensity.
Worst #hurricane strike on record incoming for Jamaica, major impacts expected in eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas/Turks & Caicos, and Bermuda.
Full details for the Caribbean and beyond in today’s newsletter:
Hurricane Hunters confirming #Melissa is 2025's third Category 5 #hurricane, with sustained winds of 160 mph. Unfortunately, little weakening is expected before #HurricaneMelissa reaches #Jamaica tomorrow morning & #Cuba Wednesday.
New forecast discussion out later this morning.
#TropicalStormMelissa poses a serious threat of major #hurricane impacts on Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas next week— but no risk to Florida.
We will be very fortunate if #Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean islands.
My latest on this potentially intense storm:
With the NHC predicting #TropicalStormMelissa to become a major #hurricane next week, it looks to do so further east than most late season Cat 3+ storms.
The western/west-central Caribbean, where #Melissa will be, are most common locations for rapid intensification in late October or November.
Newly-formed #TropicalStormMelissa is forecast to strength and meander into the weekend, and could become a major #hurricane.
However, despite long-term track uncertainty, Melissa is very, very unlikely be a U.S. threat.
My latest on #Melissa:
If the 2025 hurricane season only had one last shot to threaten land, would it seize it, or just let it slip? With La Niña back again, and a vigorous tropical wave heading for the Caribbean, we’ll need to keep an eye out to our south. Climatology says any U.S. threat is unlikely, but not impossible.
17.10.2025 12:32 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Had a chance to discuss the strong coastal low set to impact the East Coast, what to expect over the rest of the 2025 hurricane season, and, of course, to review and assign a numerical rating to Taylor Swift's "The Life of A Showgirl" live on Fox Weather today. Fun interview!
11.10.2025 00:54 — 👍 3 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Is hurricane season CANCELLED!?
In 2025, we’ve told tropical cyclones to leave us alone and they have. With no hint the next few weeks won’t keep it 100 and most U.S. landfalls post-10/15 caused by lumbering Central American Gyres, this week's column takes a close look at the Life of a Slow Gyre.
Very cool long water vapor loop of #Humberto and #Imelda between September 28th and October 1st from College of DuPage, btw.
01.10.2025 20:38 — 👍 1 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
Wrapping up Humbertimelda mania, looking at what the home stretch of hurricane season is historically packing, and checking how the forecast for the next few weeks lines up with climatology.
All that plus spooky, scary skeletons in this week’s WeatherTiger hurricane column:
