Jerry Neumann

I think I have a barbell thing going on…half my music from the 80s and half from this decade

My Spotify age was 40 even though my top two artists were Johnny Cash and The Cure (albeit their new album)

Have you told Sam [Altman]? Because he seems to think he can get both the CapEx and the return. But that’s a belief. It’s a belief that one company is going to be the only company that gets the entire market. I got it, that’s a belief. That’s what some people like to chase. I understand that from their perspective, but that’s different from agreeing with them. “Understand” is different from “agree.” I think it’s fine. I mean, they’re chasing it. Some people will make money, some people will lose money. All the [infrastructure] being built will be useful if it goes away, but if they make it, then they are the sole surviving company. Nilay, I will be clear. I am not convinced, or rather I give it really low odds — we’re talking like 0 to 1 percent — that the current set of known technologies gets us to AGI. That’s my bigger gap. I think that this current set is great. I think it’s incredibly useful for enterprise. I think it’s going to unlock trillions of dollars of productivity in the enterprise, just to be absolutely clear. That said, I think AGI will require more technologies than the current LLM path. I think it’ll require fusing knowledge with LLMs. We have words, and I’m not sure that’s the only way to create knowledge.

"I am not convinced that the current set of known technologies gets us to AGI."

CEO of IBM volunteers that language is not intelligence on Decoder and throws cold water on LLMs alone getting to AGI. A good one! -> www.theverge.com/podcast/8298...

Embedded in the hacking shopping carts video, a Terry Pratchett quote that is new to me:

"It's not worth doing something unless someone, somewhere, would much rather you weren't doing it." 😂

ICE is staging in a garage on Centre St & Howard in lower Manhattan ahead of what neighbors believe is a planned large-scale raid of Canal
Street this afternoon.
Estimated 20-25 agents inside, with more steadily joining, some taken by surprise and caught with their masks down.

awesome conversation. founder vs investor in my 2025 books in the box

YouTube video by Oxide Computer Company Oxide and Friends 11/17/2025 -- Founder vs. Investor with Liz Zalman and Jerry Neumann

On Monday, OxF hosted @oxide.computer founders, @sdtuck.bsky.social and @bcantrill.bsky.social, Oxide investor Seth Winterroth, and the authors of Founder vs. Investor, Liz Zalman and @ganeumann.bsky.social. Delved into best and worst investor behavior. Check it out!

True to our vow a few months ago, today we're having @ganeumann.bsky.social back: he and Elizabeth Zalman join @ahl.bsky.social, @sdtuck.bsky.social, Seth Winterroth, and me today to discuss their book, Founder vs. Investor.

Join us live, at a special time: 12p Pacific!

discord.gg/QrcKGTTPrF?e...

Felice Kincannon Felice Kincannon was my boss, my mentor, and a friend. She passed away in April of this year. Felice shied away from publicity, so there is little written about her. If she knew I was writing this …

Felice Kincannon reactionwheel.net/2025/11/feli...

Lol. The one blocklist I managed to get on was called "AI Bootlickers" or something like that and, I mean...

Jerry Neumann on the Problem With Investing in AI Right Now <p>AI has made a lot of people fabulously wealthy. But sorry, it's probably not going to be the thing that makes you rich. And if history is any guide, we don't even know who the real AI winners are g...

Look ma, I'm on Odd Lots with @weisenthal.bsky.social and @tracyalloway.bsky.social player.fm/series/serie...

Wife: why do we have so many tamales?!

Me: Uh…Welcome to the resistance?

“ChatGPT is so mid”, or, Why AI Won’t Change the World Podcast Episode · The Jacob Shapiro Podcast · 11/10/2025 · 1h

Talked to @jashap.bsky.social about my recent Colossus Review essay podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/c...

I mean, the funny thing is, we already know how to end most scarcity, we just decide not to do it

(* "we" meaning society, not you specifically)

Founder vs Investor: The Honest Truth About Venture Capital from Startup to IPO Amazon.com: Founder vs Investor: The Honest Truth About Venture Capital from Startup to IPO: 9781400242764: Zalman, Elizabeth Joy, Neumann, Jerry: Books

And if you want to join us live on Nov. 17th (at noon PT) we'll be discussing "Founder vs. Investor" with its authors, @ganeumann.bsky.social and Liz Zalman--you've got time to read it between now and then! www.amazon.com/Founder-Inve...

We take it for granted today, but a single 6W embedded NPU can do more tensor operations per second than a peasant in the 1400s could perform in his whole lifetime

Nothing between human beings is one-to-three. In fact, I long ago come to the conclusion that all life is six-to-five against.

- Damon Runyon

If I were running the DNC, there would be Democratic Party sponsored food relief banks across the country right now that specifically welcomed anyone regardless of party affiliation.

Along with the food, there could be voter registration and links to runforsomething.net

NO KINGS Morningside Heights-Manhattanville · No Kings **In America, we don’t put up with would-be kings.** Our peaceful movement is only getting bigger and stronger. “NO KINGS” is more than just a slogan—it’s the foundation our nation was built upon. Bo...

www.mobilize.us/nokings/even...

YOU CANNOT EVEN RECREATE ASML IN THE UNITED STATES

NO ONE PERSON OR EVEN GROUP OF PEOPLE HAS ALL THE KNOWLEDGE NECESSARY TO DO SO

Technological Revolutions with Jerry Neumann | Oxide and Friends | Episode 26 Jerry Neumann joined Bryan and Adam to discuss his blog post from 2015, examining the work of Carlota Perez on technological revolutions. These waves have similarities, in particular: frenzy, bust, an...

It’s been over a month but Oxide and Friends has a new episode up on the pod (and another one dropping tomorrow morning)

YouTube video by Oxide Computer Company Oxide and Friends 9/8/2025 -- Technological Revolutions with Jerry Neumann

Last week, @ganeumann.bsky.social joined @bcantrill.bsky.social and me to discuss his blog post from 2015, examining the work of Carlota Perez on technological revolutions. Common themes: frenzy, bust, and deployment. Is AI a new wave or the culmination of the IT wave of the last 50 years?

Worth remembering how 100 years ago, renowned electrical engineer Charles Steinmetz forecasted: within 100 years, industrial use of electricity would enable a four-hour workday.

He was 100% right about the impact of electricity.

And yet, 100 years later we still work 8+ hrs per day…

AI Will Not Make You Rich The disruption is real. It's also predictable.

AI Will Not Make You Rich, by @ganeumann.bsky.social

I find this essay extremely compelling. Especially the points made about who got rich from shipping containers.

joincolossus.com/article/ai-w...

Finally busted open the cabinet without a key. Apparently last opened in ~1992

Excited to announce that @ganeumann.bsky.social will join @ahl.bsky.social and me on the podcast tomorrow to reflect on his 2015 piece -- and what it might portend about current technological frenzies. Join us, Monday, 5p Pacific!
discord.gg/QrcKGTTPrF?e...

@jmsdnns.bsky.social put me on to this excellent 2015 piece from @ganeumann.bsky.social, which examines @carlotaperez.bsky.social's ideas and muses about what the coming (last!) decade might look like. A must-read -- and with very thought-provoking comments!
reactionwheel.net/2015/10/the-...

Just to avoid putting words in her mouth, I made that chart. I don’t know if she believes this or not, but she never makes this particular point afaik

Lysenkoism - Wikipedia

Apropos of nothing.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenko...