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Nate Silver Tweets

@natesilver538x.bsky.social

Automatically reposting Nate Silver Tweets, DM if you are Nate and you want this account @NateSilver538 New Book, On The Edge, #5 NYT Bestseller! https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/

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Posts by Nate Silver Tweets (@natesilver538x.bsky.social)

The eagerness for OpenAI to sign the contract on the very night their rival got fired is likely to be a lot more revealing than the contract terms, which in any event are ambiguous and unlikely to be enforced by a court that gives a lot of deference to the executive.

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28.02.2026 22:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If Hegseth is like "oops I've made a huge mistake" and needs you to pinch hit and you actually care about guardrails, you have the leverage to make him sweat a bit. Instead the obsequiousness is likely to signal future behavior and that's part of what makes you appealing to DoW.

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28.02.2026 22:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Repost by @natesilver538

Iran conflict officially on hold until Monday because the EU leadership does not work on weekends
https://nitter.net/vonderleyen/status/2027756878575362119

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28.02.2026 20:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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28.02.2026 19:30 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

PSA: Referring to Anthropic as Ant is very confusing to those of us who also follow the Minnesota Timberwolves.

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28.02.2026 17:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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One also wonders how much talent OpenAI might lose from all of this and if talent is underrated relative to capital. Anthropic had already been catching up valuation wise and Claude was increasingly considered the #1 LLM by influential users.

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28.02.2026 15:34 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 6

Repost by @natesilver538

β€œWhich candidates can credibly talk about AI” is something worth considering.
https://nitter.net/natesilver538/status/2027755917098283213

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28.02.2026 15:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War The future is here, whether you're ready or not.

Anyway, have a newsletter for you this morning with 13 thoughts on the developing Anthropic situation.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/anthtropic-open-ai-department-of-war

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28.02.2026 14:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 4
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I don't think this is a particularly bold assertion?

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28.02.2026 14:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

https://nitter.net/Afinetheorem/status/2027512879897886920

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28.02.2026 00:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'll admit to having a dark sense of humor but "Secretary of War Pete Hegseth radically alters American industrial policy because Claude is too woke" is just objectively a hilarious timeline to be in.

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27.02.2026 23:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Actually maybe it's not terrible compared to the alternatives.

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27.02.2026 21:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Big bounce for Google at the close of the trading day (also this is terrible on various levels)
https://nitter.net/TheStalwart/status/2027486716735504552

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27.02.2026 21:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Repost by @natesilver538

One thing I’ve noticed is a lot of the pollsters based in Texas are more Crockett friendly The out of the state pollsters OTOH have Talarico up I’m not sure that means anything just an observation

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27.02.2026 20:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Probably the most contradictory polling we've seen in an important race in a long time. I consider this way more fun and interesting than when all the polls say the same thing tbh.
https://nitter.net/PollTracker2024/status/2027468252335755318

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27.02.2026 20:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary? Nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge. So why are prediction markets so bullish on Talarico?

Wrote about Texas yesterday:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/whos-the-real-favorite-in-the-texas

Original post

27.02.2026 20:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Which is closest to your view? A) AI capabilities are underrated, AI downsides are underrated B) AI capabilities are underrated, AI downsides are overrated C) AI capabilities are overrated, AI downsides are underrated D) AI capabilities are overrated, AI downsides are overrated

Original post

27.02.2026 17:04 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary? Nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge. So why are prediction markets so bullish on Talarico?

Repost by @natesilver538

The polls are all over the place in the Texas Democratic primary. So why is Talarico so far ahead in the prediction markets? @NateSilver538 and I have some answers:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/whos-the-real-favorite-in-the-texas

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26.02.2026 20:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Who’s the real favorite in the Texas Senate primary? Nonpartisan polls give Crockett the edge. So why are prediction markets so bullish on Talarico?

With Eli, I've got a lot of thoughts on why prediction markets favor Talarico when Crockett leads in the polls.
https://www.natesilver.net/p/whos-the-real-favorite-in-the-texas

Original post

26.02.2026 19:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Repost by @natesilver538

I'll also be there. So if you didn't get a chance to laugh at my handwriting last time, you might get a second chance.
https://nitter.net/NateSilver538/status/2027086244761460816

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26.02.2026 18:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Repost by @natesilver538

This is a good take. I haven’t heard anyone in the AI world credibly articulate why the average person should assume it will make their life better. Typically they say the opposite.
https://nitter.net/natesilver538/status/2025246413764846007

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26.02.2026 13:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0