Stattraction

Imagine if they called it Bounce. They would've had a hit on their hands.

Essendon have just gone 1.2 (8) up to the Kangaroos' 0 points. This is the biggest deficit the Roos have faced this season, breaking the previous best of 6 points held by Geelong.

#AFLW

A table showing predictions of the IFSC Koper 2025 women's lead final. The list of athletes and their chances of winning are as follows: 1. Janja Garnbret 44.8% 2. Seo Chaehyun 17% 3. Erin McNeice 15.2% 4. Laura Rogora 12.4% 5. Lucka Rakovec 5.6% 6. Rosa Rekar 2% 7. Heloïse Doumont 1.9% 8. Lucija Tarkus 1%

And here are the women's projections. Janja Garnbret is once again the rampaging favourite to take it. Seo, McNeice and Rogora are in a good position to pounce if she doesn't. #WorldClimbing

A table showing predictions of the IFSC Koper 2025 men's lead final. The list of athletes and their chances of winning are as follows: 1. Jakob Schubert 23.4% 2. Anraku Sorato 16.5% 3. Toby Roberts 14.8% 4. Alberto Ginés López 14.1% 5. Adam Ondra 11.6% 6. Suzuki Neo 8.7% 7. Yoshida Satone 8.3% 8. Putra Tri Ramadani 2.7%

Here are the Koper #WorldClimbing final projections. Jakob Schubert has come roaring back to competition and he's the firm favourite. Anraku, Roberts, Ginés López and Ondra are all good chances of taking the title as well.

Climbing: Koper 2025 Climbing is back! Apologies for missing Madrid, I had things on. After…

As always, more details are available on the ol' site.
stattraction.au/climbing-kop...

Table showing predictions for IFSC Koper 2025. Following is the top 6 athletes and their win percentages in women's lead. Janja Garnbret 47% Seo Chaehyun 13.4% Erin McNeice 12.6% Laura Rogora 8.6% Jessica Pilz 6.6% Kim Jain 4.3%

For the women's lead, Janja Garnbret is of course the runaway favourite since Mori Ai isn't in attendance. Seo, McNeice, Rogora, Pilz and Kim are all decent shots.

#WorldClimbing

Table showing predictions for IFSC Koper 2025. Following is the top 5 athletes and their win percentages in men's lead. Anraku Sorato 21.1% Alberto Ginés López 19.6% Toby Roberts 17.4% Suzuki Neo 10% Yoshida Satone 8.7%

IFSC Koper is about to kick off! Here's what I've got for results.

Anraku, Ginés López and Roberts are the favourites for the men's lead. Suzuki and Yoshida aren't far behind either.

#WorldClimbing

#AFLW players to lead (or jointly lead) goals, hitouts, clearances, inside 50s, metres gained and score involvements in one match:

Matilda Scholz (PA, Rd 3 2025)

(Erin Phillips x2, Dana Hooker, Mon Conti and Mim Strom have each lead 5 of these 6 categories)

Most goals in an #AFLW game while leading hitouts:

1. M Scholz, 4 (PA, Rd 3 2025)
=2. E King, 3 (NM, Rd 4 2019)
=2. E King, 3 (NM, Rd 1 2021)
=2. M Scholz, 3 (PA, Rd 10 2023
=5. 9 players, 2

Jas Grierson has just kicked her second career goal, for Sydney. Her first goal was Melbourne's first goal in the #AFLW way back in round 1 2017.

#AFL Benchwarmers of the Year
1. Angus Sheldrick (SY), estimated 17h 50m spent on the bench
2. Harry Sharp (ME) 17h 49m
3. Cooper Lord (CA) 16h 30m
4. Jacob Konstanty (NM) 14h 56m
5. Josh Sinn (PA) 14h 34m

Yes I'm aware that this is ridiculously specific.

Highest point total cleared by two teams in one #AFLW round:
103: Sydney & Brisbane (Rd 2, 2025)*
99: Gold Coast & Melbourne (Rd 2, 2023)
87: Adelaide & North Melbourne (Rd 7, 2024)
83: Brisbane & Melbourne (Rd 3, 2023)
82: Essendon & Brisbane (Rd 3, S7) and North Melbourne & Melbourne (Rd 7, 2023)

Biggest single match goal hauls in #AFLW:
B Lochland (WB, 2018 Rd 4) - 7.3
C Molloy (SY, 2025 Rd 2) - 7.3
J Stanton (GC, 2023 Rd 2) - 6.2
G Bodey (HW, 2024 Wk 4) - 6.0
A Moloney (GE, 2024 Wk 9) - 6.0

Lucia Painter is now only the 4th AFLW player to kick 3 goal on debut and the first since 2019. Darcy Vescio (2017) and Courteney Munn (2019) kicked 4, Erin Phillips (2017) kicked 3 in their first games.
#AFLWEaglesSuns

Highest disposal counts in the 2025 #AFLW practice matches:
40: Georgie Prespakis (GE)
35: Laura Gardiner (SY)
33: Ash Riddell (NM)
31: Ebony Marinoff (AD)
30: Alyce Parker (GW)
28: Eliza McNamara (ME)
27: Kiara Bowers (FR), Madeleine Guerin (CA), Anne Hatchard (AD)

Most disposals by players with at least 20 hitouts in a match
1. Graham Farmer, 43 (1966 Rd 9 vs. Fitzroy)
2. Gary Dempsey, 40 (1980 Rd 20 vs. Essendon)
3. Brodie Grundy, 39 (2025 Rd 21 vs. Essendon)
#AFL

With 2 matches left to be played, round 20 already has the 11th biggest sum of margins for a round in the 21st century.

1st. Round 18, 2012: 572 points (margins of 120, 98, 94, 76, 72, 54, 27, 27, 4)
---
11th. Round 20, 2025: 475 points (101, 98, 93, 66, 49, 44, 24, ?, ?)

Squiggle Football - Trailer #2

for PC, Mac + Linux... August 2025

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In the men's, Roberts, Homma, Omata and Lehmann have all exited in semis which has really opened up the podium. Anraku and Ginés López are the clear favourites for gold and silver. After that is anyone's guess, it's wide open.

IFSC Wujiang heads into finals and not a lot changed from yesterday in the women's. Seo Chaehyun is still expected to win with Rogora and Sanders completing the podium. Apel wasn't given much of a chance to make it this far, so good on her.

In the men's, Ginés López has a decent chance of winning now, while Suzuki has shot into the top 10 after being originally projected in second-to-last due to his prolonged absence from the lead climbing circuit. The big names all made semis, here.

I don't think there's much of a sport climbing scene on bsky but hey, why not. IFSC Wujiang 2025 Qualis are over and I figured I'd sim the rest of the tournament. For women's, McNeice & Mackenzie have shot up the standings while Kotake has shockingly fallen before semis.

AFL Teams of the 2020s Quiz Playlist - By stattraction Play quizzes in the AFL Teams of the 2020s quiz playlist. Become a trivia expert on Sporcle, where you'll find thousands of quizzes and playlists on every topic imaginable.

For the footy nerds. I've been slowly building up this playlist over the last month or so. Give it a crack!

It's just so silly. You never know when a team is going to random turn it on and win 5 games in a row.

AFL: Round 5, 2025 Hihi. 6/8 tips, 2.5 Bits and 22.1 MAE is a good result…

STaRS has already reduced the finals contenders to 11 teams which feels a little premature. I really need to work on the projection code because it's not working for me right now. Oh well!
stattraction.au/afl-round-5-...

A cropped table of STaRS' ratings, showing Adelaide in first with a 100% attack rating. In 2nd is Geelong with 71%, and Collingwood, GWS and Hawthorn filling out the remainder of the top 5.

Adelaide are the number 1 attacking team in the competition per STaRS, and it's not even particularly close. The post for the week is up here: stattraction.au/afl-round-4-...

AFL: Round 3, 2025 4/8 tips (bad!), 0.14 Bits (bad!), and 32.13 MAE (mid!). I am…

I have a feeling my model is going to do quite poorly this year if it doesn't stop backing in Essendon. Anyway, my round 3 post is up, the site is updated, and the data I send to Squiggle is updated. stattraction.au/afl-round-3-...

Table showing the amount of times AFL teams have won a lopsided free kick count that meets two criteria set by the 2025 round 2 match where Collingwood received 19 more free kicks than the Bulldogs, accounting for 70% of the free kicks given. The Bulldogs have been the beneficiary of most of these games with 18, with Collingwood 2nd with 15.

Using free kick counts as a substitute for actual reasoning in the umpire debate has always been extremely silly, but I'll indulge it for a moment.

A graphic shows Adelaide, Collingwood and Gold Coast moving up the projected ladder by 4, 6 and 6 places respectively, while Port Adelaide dropped by 5 places.

You know projecting the AFL season this early in the year is a fruitless endeavour when you get this garbage happening. Teams are jumping everywhere all over the ladder. Anyway, this round's post is up. stattraction.au/afl-round-2-...