Joss Garman

Thanks Gaby

The great rupture: a manifesto for a world after the climate consensus The climate agenda I worked on for the past twenty years has broken.

The golden era of multilateralism is over. Net zero targets may soon be too. The climate agenda I worked on for 20 years is broken. Time for a new direction. open.substack.com/pub/loomfram...

Do UN climate talks have a point any more? The US president is notably absent from these UN climate talks, as are other world leaders, all of which prompts questions about the purpose of COP today.

Spoke to BBC on how climate politics is now about who captures + controls the economic benefits of new energy industries.

The future of international cooperation is away from COP.

It will be economic & security deals between individual countries.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

So impressive 👏

NEW CHART: Nuclear renaissance? The rise, fall and rise of UK nuclear power over eight decades

(Thanks to Ho Woo Nam for pulling the data together & Tom Prater for making such a cool chart)

www.carbonbrief.org/...

Fires cause record loss of tropical forests in climate threat Tropical forests provide a buffer against climate change, but disappeared faster than ever recorded last year.

Fires cause record loss of tropical forests

"The record... released 3.1 billion tonnes of planet-warming gases... That's roughly the same as the emissions of the European Union."

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Tony Blair’s ideas for net zero are expensive and unpopular The former PM’s clumsy climate intervention exposes the new political contest over the environment

Always essential to read @samalvis.bsky.social on the new politics of climate + here he is on what Blair gets wrong www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...

Tony Blair’s ideas for net zero are expensive and unpopular The former PM’s clumsy climate intervention exposes the new political contest over the environment

Thanks @prospectmagazine.co.uk @aloner.bsky.social who let me write about Tony Blair's recent tribute act to the TB-GBs of New Labour, with some more serious consideration of where his NZ antipathy comes and the new politics if climate

mini 🧵

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/698...

Record heat today in England and Wales made at least 3x more likely by climate change, according to Climate Central. Mayday mayday

Excellent news 🌞🌞

FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6

5 reasons I (mostly) agree with Tony Blair on Net Zero It was just a few months ago when Tony Blair issued a paper hailing the Conservatives’ decision to put the Net Zero target into law as "a significant moment of statecraft and global leadership that he...

There's actually much to agree with in Blair's argument on Net Zero today.

open.substack.com/pub/jossgarm...

The global export value of internal combustion engine cars fell by 24% between 2018-2022, but the sale of electric cars soared by 740%.

The future is EVs and someone needs to be building them... why not the UK?

Find out more here: www.ippr.org/articles/pla...

Worth a chat with Natalia Węgrzyn

MASSIVE FISCAL PACKAGE OUT OF BERLIN: 12-20%+ of GDP.

- 500 billion fund for public investment
- All defence spending above 1% of GDP not counted for debt brake.
- Federal states can borrow 0.35% p.y. for investment.

Germany is back - economically and militarily.

1/x

I agree. If we can't rely on the US, and if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine, there will be a real threat of a major war on NATO territory, from which the UK could not stand aloof. The government would, I suspect, have buy-in from most parties for starting a national conversation on implications.

NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts

www.carbonbrief.org/...

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More offshore wind farms on the way.

"There is no trade off between growth and Net Zero. Quite the opposite. Its the industrial opportunity of the century."

Great to hear Rachel Reeves doubling down on opportunities from Britain's green economy, which recently grew 9% in a single year.

In our first @moreincommonuk.bsky.social voting intention of 2025, Labour & Tories remain at 26%. Reform is at 22% - the highest figure we’ve recorded for them

🌳CON 26% (nc)
🌹LAB 26% (nc)
➡️ REF UK 22% (+3)
🔶 LIB DEM 12% ( -1)
🌍 GREEN 7% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (nc)

N = 2,011 6 - 8 Jan, Change w 10 Dec

Best TV in years!

Tata Steel and JCB ink landmark green steel deal Memorandum of Understanding to see construction equipment giant supplied with low carbon steel from revamped Port Talbot plant

Big news for the green steel plans for Port Talbot as first supply agreement announced with JCB. www.businessgreen.com/news/4389022...

Clean Power 2030 Action Plan https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/675bfaa4cfbf84c3b2bcf986/clean-power-2030-action-plan.pdf

Our brand new Clean Power 2030 Action Plan is published today.

We’ve produced this at lightning pace - it’s packed with new steps towards clean power. We’re moving quickly and making big decisions to open the path to 2030.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

This bit of the MI5 chief's annual threat summary has been living in my head rent-free since October, now it can be in all your heads, too.

As ever, it's fantastic to see global range of names among the latest cohort!

YouTube video by Sky News What's behind Europe's car industry crisis? | Ed Conway analysis

🚗What's happening to Europe's car industry is one of the biggest stories in the world right now, & prob the biggest story of next year too.
A slow motion implosion driven by multiple factors (esp Chinese competition).
Watch my primer on what's going on👇 youtu.be/oW_SXIVQT5I?...

STRIKING NEW DATA: More than a quarter of new cars sold in the UK in November were battery EVs (so much for "stalling sales")

📈BEV sales up 51% year-on-year
📉Petrol sales down 35% year-on-year (!)

Data from New Automotive

Something quite surreal about incoming DNI Tulsi Gabbard lobbying for Edward Snowdon's pardon - the largest leaker of US intelligence in history.

Starmer - introduced by a heat pump engineer! - says he is doubling down on clean energy mission & “accelerate to net zero”

UK 10yr yields falling back to where they were pre-Budget.

Given that the rise was such a huge issue, I must have missed all the breathless coverage of what the fall means...