Russia Watcher

In Russia, approval of Trump increased significantly leading up to and after the “Alaska Summit.” But in the past month, disapproval has crept back up to the level it was when Trump took office.

As talk of negotiations continues, ordinary Russians remain uncompromising. Around 40% say that troops should withdraw only after annexing part of Ukraine & regime change (i.e., ousting Zelensky). Only 10% support an unconditional, immediate withdrawal.

How has Russian public opinion shifted in the wake of the "Alaska Summit," which took place on August 15. One notable change: approval of Donald Trump has increased considerably from its all-time low at the beginning of the month.

Only about 10% (down from nearly 15% in September) say Russia should withdraw without any conditions, and >10% still say Russia should annex all of Ukraine. /END

But this doesn't mean Russians are willing to give up much. Our data show that as approval for negotiations has been going up, willingness to compromise has been going down: the % who say they want to annex part of Ukraine & achieve regime change has grown since February 2025. 4/

Approval of negotiations also reached a peak in early August, with nearly 40% of Russians expressing strong approval of negotiations and another 25% saying they somewhat approve. 3/

But uncertainty has ben increasing over the past week or two, perhaps in anticipation of the meeting between the US and Russian presidents. 2/

Just two days before the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska, disapproval of Trump has reached its peak in Russia, with nearly 40% of Russians saying they strongly disapprove of him and another 25% saying they somewhat disapprove. 1/

Meanwhile, approval of negotiations is also at an all-time high, with a sizable majority expressing support. This is probably because negotiations seem increasingly likely to occur, and also (we suspect) because Russians believe they are in a good negotiating position.

Trump’s rating in Russia just keeps going down… this is the lowest approval rating we’ve ever recorded as part of Russia Watcher. (We started tracking this stat daily in April 2024.)

However, Trump approval is still much higher than Biden approval was; less than 10% of Russians said they approved of the former US president before Trump took office.

Approval of Donald Trump among Russians is now at the lowest level since fall 2024. After major upticks in approval in early February and early May, approval of the US president has been steadily eroding. Now, around 60% of our respondents say they disapprove of Trump, and only about 20% approve.

If anything, Russians have become less worried about the economic effects of the so-called "special military operation." This suggests that although there is considerable dissatisfaction with the economy, many people don't blame their economic troubles on the war.

How do Russians view the economic effects of the war against 🇺🇦? On the one hand, people have become increasingly dissatisfied w/ their personal financial situations in the last 2 months. On the other hand, worry about the economic consequences of the war hasn't changed much.

At the same time, most Russians don't think that the war poses a serious threat to them personally. In fact, threat perceptions have actually decreased somewhat over the past ~1.5 months.

Approval of negotiations continues to grow in Russia, while self-reported support for the war ('special military operation') remains high and stable.

Note that these are unweighted 7-day moving averages (right-aligned), meaning that each daily point averages percentages from the current day and previous 6 days. /END

Meanwhile, perceptions of the success of the SMO have returned to level they were at before the new year after an increase from February to early May. 40% of Russians think the SMO is being conducted somewhat successfully, but only 20% think it's very successful. 5/

It will be interesting to see whether Ukraine's recent drone strikes on Russian air bases will affect attitudes toward the war and prospects of coming to some kind of agreement. 4/

This shows that while most Russians continue to say that they are in favor of their government's decision to fight war - which they have little control over - but they are increasingly keen to end the fighting, especially as negotiations seem more realistic. 3/

It's worth noting that nominal support for the so-called 'special military operation' has remained relatively unchanged over the same time period. Over 60% of Russians say they strongly or somewhat support the SMO, and ~20-25% oppose it (~10% say they don't know). 2/

Despite Vladimir Putin's apparent hesitation to negotiate with Ukraine, approval of negotiations toward a ceasefire are at an all-time high in Russia. Over 30% of our respondents in Russia express strong support and ~25% express weak support. 1/

but it seems more likely that attitudes in Russia are shifting in response to the current diplomatic environment and recent meetings and phone calls between top Russian, Ukrainian, and US officials.

Please note that these figures show 7-day moving averages that are right-aligned. The data were not weighted to mirror Russia's demographic makeup. We made some changes to our sampling in early May, which could possibly help explain some of the shifts we observe around that time,

These figures show how attitudes toward more concrete tactics are much more malleable and subject to change over time than attitudes toward more general issues (e.g., the "special military operation") and Putin.

Approval of bombing Ukrainian cities has also fluctuated considerably over time, especially since late February.

Where we have seen considerable fluctuation - especially since late January, when Donald Trump was elected president in the USA - is approval of negotiations to end the war.

Meanwhile, Putin approval - as always - remains virtually unchanged, with perhaps a slight dip over the past couple of weeks.

Support for the war in Ukraine remained fairly steady over the past 6 months, also we did see what may be a slight downturn in early May.

For the third year in a row, we asked our Russian respondents how great a contribution various Allied countries made to victory in WWII. Results have been fairly stable. What's striking is how the vast majority of Russians perceive contributions of other Allies as relatively minor.