Yezid Sayigh

What was Hezbullah thinking?! This time around, Israel intends to reap the full rewards of its battlefield success in the 2024 war

This time around, Israel intends to reap the full rewards of its battlefield success in the 2024 war.

My latest Substack post tries to answer the question bewildering many people, not least in Lebanon:

What was Hezbullah thinking?!
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally By leaving it to the people of Iran to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change

My assessment of the U.S. attack on Iran:

In leaving the Iranian people to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change - contrary to immediate perceptions

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

What was Hezbullah thinking?! This time around, Israel intends to reap the full rewards of its battlefield success in the 2024 war

This time around, Israel intends to reap the full rewards of its battlefield success in the 2024 war.

My latest Substack post tries to answer the question bewildering many people, not least in Lebanon:

What was Hezbullah thinking?!
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally By leaving it to the people of Iran to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change

My assessment of the U.S. attack on Iran:

In leaving the Iranian people to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change - contrary to immediate perceptions

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

The Man Who Would Be King Ali Shamkhani and Iran’s Security-Managed Transition

Fascinating insight from
@hamidrezaaz.bsky.social, crucial relevance for what comes next in Iran:

The Man Who Would Be King
open.substack.com/pub/irananal...

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally By leaving it to the people of Iran to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change

My assessment of the U.S. attack on Iran:

In leaving the Iranian people to take over their government, Trump is in fact sidestepping regime change - contrary to immediate perceptions

Trump does not seek regime change in Iran… except incidentally
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

The other dimension of Emirati-Saudi rivalry around the Red Sea The economic interests that the two Gulf monarchies have built in countries on the other side of the Red Sea will almost certainly outlive their current rivalry

My new Substack post argues that the “vertical integration” of UAE and Saudi investments in neighbouring Red Sea countries, especially Egypt and Sudan, will survive their current geopolitical rivalry

open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

‘Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks Karen Newton was in America on the trip of a lifetime when she was shackled, transported and held for weeks on end. With tourism to the US under increasing strain, she says, ‘If it can happen to me, i...

Imagine taking a vacation abroad & being disappeared to a jail for 40+ days for no reason.

That’s what this Admin is doing to foreign tourists. It's outrageous & hurting our businesses. 

When will other nations start holding the Admin accountable for mistreating their citizens?

It was such a privilege to write this. The act of building solidarities across borders is never easy, and not always successful, but has always been deeply necessary.

‘Don’t go to the US – not with Trump in charge’: the UK tourist with a valid visa detained by ICE for six weeks Karen Newton was in America on the trip of a lifetime when she was shackled, transported and held for weeks on end. With tourism to the US under increasing strain, she says, ‘If it can happen to me, i...

A British grandmother with a valid visa detained by ICE for 6 weeks.

"So why did ICE detain her, and keep her locked up for so long? ICE officers are paid a bonus every time they detain someone. 'Individual ICE agents get money per head that they detain – the guards told me that,' Karen says."

These atrocities in Sudan were entirely predictable. So why did the rest of the world fail to stop them? | Husam Mahjoub Western governments have put elite bargains before civilian lives. If El Fasher is to mean anything, this approach must change, says Husam Mahjoub, co-founder of Sudanese TV channel Sudan Bukra

"The liberal peace-building model that privileges armed actors and elite bargains has already failed Sudan. It treats generals and militia leaders as indispensable stakeholders and relegates civilians to observers."
New approaches are required indeed.
#Sudan
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Follow link below to attend this year's Rosemary Hollis Memorial Lecture at City St George’s, University of London. Professor Rosemary Hollis was genuinely dedicated to the people of the Middle East, and a friend who is much-missed by many.

www.citystgeorges.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

All or nothing in Gaza Forming a Palestinian technocratic committee to admini Gaza is a welcome step, but its only hope for success lies in implementing all parts of the Trump plan’s Phase 1, without which its Phase 2 is at

As we await the outcomes of the first meeting of Trump's Board of Peace today, I'm reposting my comment on the need to implement Phase 1 elements fully & empower the Palestinian administrative committee

All or nothing in Gaza
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

A really interesting sharp critique by Cynthia Gharios of “greening the desert” narratives in the Gulf, that are replicated on a large scale in Egypt and elsewhere in MENA:

aub.edu.lb/critical-dev...

The third death of Palestinian politics This is part of a series of occasional posts critically assessing Palestinian politics and 7 October

I have been writing critically about Palestinian politics and armed struggle from a position of what Fred Halliday called "'complex solidarity" for nearly 50 years.

So my latest Substack post means a lot to me:

The third death of Palestinian politics
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

The third death of Palestinian politics This is part of a series of occasional posts critically assessing Palestinian politics and 7 October

My latest Substack post takes a hard, critical look at the historical roots of the current deep crisis of Palestinian politics:

The third death of Palestinian politics
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

Mischief in Arabia—and its ripple effects The regional effects of Saudi-Emirati tensions will complicate, or even derail, any attempt to repair the two countries’ relationship

As discussion of the Saudi-Emirati rift continues, I'm reposting my Substack post as a reminder that local actors around the Red Sea have their own agendas that affect outcomes:

Mischief in Arabia—and its ripple effects
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

The limits and challenges of Saudi foreign policy Initial Saudi successes in blunting the UAE’s regional drive will be difficult to deepen and consolidate, but unless they are, they probably cannot be sustained

In my new Substack post, I ask: What are the limitations and challenges facing Saudi Arabia's counterattack on the UAE's regional strategy?

The limits and challenges of Saudi foreign policy
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

Netanyahu: No Gaza rebuild before Hamas disarms, Israel will keep ‘security control’ over Gaza In press conference, PM also celebrates return of final slain hostage, addresses threat of Iran attack, urges against early elections, claims innocence on Qatargate, ducks responsibility for Oct. 7

Netanyahu on top form, manages to cover all bases 😂. Anyone looking for a great summary of his 1984-style political prattle should read this TOI article:

Netanyahu: No Gaza rebuild before Hamas disarms, Israel will keep ‘security control’ over Gaza www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-no...

If Jeff Bezos could afford to spend $75 million on the Melania movie & $500 million for a yacht to sail off to his $55 million wedding to give his wife a $5 million ring, please don't tell me he needed to fire one-third of the Washington Post staff.

Democracy dies in oligarchy.

We buried my aunt Mary last Friday I pause my weekly commentary on Middle East and global politics for a more personal reflection

I paused my weekly political analysis to write a far more personal reflection for my Substack, weaving a tapestry of family, social, and political history:

We buried my aunt Mary last Friday
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

When the United States leaves the United Nations We are already witnessing the manifestations of U.S. withdrawal from the UN, even if its formal departure has not yet been announced—and may not be

"When the United States leaves the United Nations"
sayighyezid.substack.com/p/when-the-u...

The U.S. and Argentina Quit the World Health Organization: What Happens Next? By Yusra Suedi (PhD, Assistant Professor of International Law at University of Manchester)

More confirmation of the argument I made in a post a few weeks ago titled "When the United States leaves the United Nations" - link follows

The U.S. and Argentina Quit the World Health Organization: What Happens Next?
open.substack.com/pub/simplela...

How far might Israel’s far-right go? Everything that once seemed to be far-fetched should now be treated as probable, worldwide but also in Israel—including overturning parliamentary elections

A core feature of the far-right is its penchant for rupture, whipping up emotions it can harness for transgressive violence. So in my latest Substack post I argue that comfortable certainties must be set aside, so as to ask:

How far might Israel’s far-right go?
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

While Israel’s Construction Industry Falters, Apartments Are Springing up Around Ramallah Revoking the permits of 160,000 Palestinian workers has meant chaos for building projects and has all but destroyed the economy of the West Bank — though for some, it is a desirable place to own prope...

Fascinating insight from @lisang.bsky.social into the intersecting socio-economic, security, & political conditions shaping labour & ownership among diverse Palestinian communities living under various forms of Israeli control

newlinesmag.com/reportage/wh...

Jordan used Israeli firm’s phone-cracking tool to surveil pro-Gaza activists, report finds Researchers find with high confidence that security officials used Cellebrite to extract data from activists’ phones

“Authorities in Jordan appear to be using an Israeli digital tool to extract information from the mobile phones of activists and protesters who have been critical of Israel and spoken out in support of Gaza, according to a new report by the Citizen Lab.”

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Check out Adnan Khan’s conversation with Turkey Book Talk and read his reporting with us 👇

All or nothing in Gaza Forming a Palestinian technocratic committee to admini Gaza is a welcome step, but its only hope for success lies in implementing all parts of the Trump plan’s Phase 1, without which its Phase 2 is at

My latest post tackles a tough question: how to confront Trump's approach to Gaza and his Board of Peace, while leaning into his 20-point plan to extricate the people of Gaza from their daily tragedy as quickly as possible?

All or nothing in Gaza
open.substack.com/pub/sayighye...

The Demise of Conflict Studies - Dissent Magazine An entire industry specializing in mediation, peacekeeping, disarmament, and transitional justice has become largely obsolete.

An excellent, devastating critique of a field of policy practice & academic study that became an industry of liberal institutionalism all about procedure rather than substance, by @wlacher.bsky.social & @yguichaoua.bsky.social:

The Demise of Conflict Studies

dissentmagazine.org/article/the-...

YouTube video by FRANCE 24 English 'What will Trump and Board of Peace do to empower Palestinian technocratic committee?' • FRANCE 24

Link to my interview yesterday with Nadia Massih of France 24, to discuss Phase 2 of Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza:

youtube.com/watch?v=1ACdOpOXSlc