Horacio Larreguy

👉Our findings demonstrate how historical variation in inherited coercive capacity and informational frictions can shape the subnational logic of authoritarian control.

💥 Our results indicate that after the sudden increase in dissent, municipalities with a stronger militia presence experienced more repression events and less land redistribution than areas with weaker or no militia presence.

(3) newly digitized archival records documenting individual instances of repression over time from archivo.archivosdelarepresion.org

(1) a large-scale land reform that redistributed over half of all agricultural land between 1910 and 1992;

(2) the localized presence of regime-aligned rural militias with revolutionary origins and

💎We then test these predictions using novel data from twentieth-century Mexico under PRI rule.

Our empirical strategy exploits a sharp increase in overall dissent in the mid-1960s and three sources of subnational variation:

🪖The model predicts that when dissent rises, rulers are more likely to rely on repression rather on redistribution in areas with strong inherited coercive capacity.

🧩 We develop a model in which an autocrat’s localized response to dissent depends on incomplete information about the geography of people’s discontent and the government’s coercive capacity, a feature that authoritarian governments often inherit from the past.

🗺️ In contrast, we argue that subnational differences in the inherited coercive capacity of the regime are a central—yet underexplored—determinant of whether autocrats respond to local dissent with repression or redistribution, thereby preventing its escalation at the very early stages of uprisings.

👉While this trade-off is well documented, existing accounts often treat this strategic choice as uniform across space, attributing variation primarily to national-level factors, such as regime type or macroeconomic conditions.

🤔What could explain the subnational variation in authoritarian responses to local unrest?

📜 Authoritarian regimes commonly employ a mix of coercion and redistribution to maintain political control (Gandhi 2008; Albertus 2017).

📢New Working Paper Alert📢

Very excited to share the latest version of our paper with
@hlarreguy.bsky.social, David Martinez, and Mariano Sánchez-T on how authoritarian regimes vary their strategies across territory to maintain political control.

🔗https://juanfeliperiano.com/papers/militias.pdf

We use amazing data on repression from archivosdelarepresion.org, which we hope everybody gives a greater use.

So, happy that we finally have a draft with David Martinez, @juanfeliperiano.bsky.social and Mariano Sánchez-Talanquer. All this started informally over a dinner at the @weatherheadcenter.bsky.social almost 10 years ago! tinyurl.com/MexicoMilitias

#DemocraticBacksliding: The erosion of US democracy under Trump is steeper than any recent precedent, including Hungary, Venezuela, Turkey, R//ZZ.l'a/nd

Source: Financial Times @jburnmurdoch.ft.com www.ft.com/content/b474...

So happy that this work with Antonella Bandiera and Jorge Mangonnet @apsrjournal.bsky.social is finally in press t.co/LyI7UbBIaU

After 6 years of work, I am thrilled to introduce "Polarization and Exposure to Cross-Partisan Media in an Electoral Autocracy," with Jeremy Bowles @shelleyliu.bsky.social and Ahmet Akbiyik. We hope you enjoy it! tinyurl.com/TBLLA

Combating Misinformation. What Works and What We Should Do www.ifo.de/en/econpol/p...

Always fun to work with Cesi Cruz and @drernestocast.bsky.social!

📢 Our new VoxDevLit on Political Polarisation is out now!

Senior Editors Cesi Cruz (University of Michigan) & Horacio Larreguy (ITAM) review research on the causes and consequences of polarisation.

Read & download here: https://voxdev.org/voxdevlit/political-polarisation

Political Polarisation Political polarisation has been rising sharply in both advanced and developing democracies, with implications for democratic accountability, institutional trust, and social cohesion. This VoxDevLit re...

👀 Out now in @voxdev.bsky.social! VoxDev senior eds. Cesi Cruz, @hlarreguy.bsky.social and @ernestotiburcio.bsky.social share a lit review on the causes and consequences of polarization. Read & download here: voxdev.org/voxdevlit/po...

📢 Political polarisation has been rising sharply in both advanced and developing democracies.

At our VoxDevLit launch event on October 27, Cesi Cruz and @hlarreguy.bsky.social will summarise research on the causes and consequences of polarisation.

Register➡️ cepr-org.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

So nice to this in print! Always a pleasure to work with José Ramón Enríquez @asimpser.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🔍 #EconJob Research Assistant in Political Economy

You'll work w/ M. Montenegro @hlarreguy.bsky.social, J. Merilainen & N. Garviras

💡France-based—Toulouse ideal; remote OK; part/full-time
🧠 Advanced Stata skills + knowledge of Spanish preferred

Application: mateo.montenegro[at]tse-fr.eu

2/2 Conocimientos de Stata requeridos, español preferiblemente. Envía tu CV → mateo.montenegro@tse-fr.eu, horacio.larreguy@itam.mx, jaakko.merilainen@hhs.se, ngarbirasdiaz@hbs.edu. Enviaremos una breve prueba de Stata para verificar nivel.

1/2 Buscamos RA (con base en Francia—ideal Toulouse; remoto OK; medio tiempo o tiempo completo). Stata obligatorio. Proyectos en economía política (desinformación y capacidad estatal local) con
@hlarreguy.bsky.social
@jmerilainen.bsky.social
Natalia Garbiras Diaz
Mateo Montenegro

2/2 Contract for at least a year. Stata required, Spanish preferred. Send CV → mateo.montenegro@tse-fr.eu, horacio.larreguy@itam.mx, jaakko.merilainen@hhs.se, ngarbirasdiaz@hbs.edu. We’ll send a short Stata test to confirm proficiency.

1/2 We’re hiring a Research Assistant (France-based—Toulouse ideal; remote OK; part/full-time). Projects: experimental & quasi-experimental political economy on misinformation and local state capacity w/
@hlarreguy.bsky.social
@jmerilainen.bsky.social
Natalia Garbiras Diaz
Mateo montenegro_z

"Political brokers use social networks to identify & target reciprocal non-copartisans for vote buying. Parties recruit brokers central in networks to sway persuadable voters."

From @rduartegonzalez.bsky.social, Finan, @hlarreguy.bsky.social and Schechter:

www.restud.com/brokering-vo...

#Econsky

📅Let's meet on Dec 4 & 5 to ̶d̶i̶s̶g̶u̶s̶t̶ discuss about Disgust accross borders, a theme that's anything but tasteless !

👃 As you'll see very soon, the program is still appetizing.

⬇️Interested in presenting? Subdmissions are now open!⬇️
@cmolho.bsky.social @csarabian.bsky.social @atognetti.bsky.social