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Ref Effect

@refeffect.bsky.social

Attempting to track the effect penalties make on games. Currently still a work in progress. Ideas/Suggestions welcomed. Data from: ESPN Made by: @apalen.bsky.social Also available on X: @Ref_Effect

29 Followers  |  11 Following  |  172 Posts  |  Joined: 15.12.2024  |  1.7685

Latest posts by refeffect.bsky.social on Bluesky

The following play with a penalty in the Buccaneers @ Lions game caused a 11.24% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Buccaneers @ Lions game caused a 11.24% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Buccaneers @ Lions game caused a 11.24% change in win probability

16.01.2025 20:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Dolphins game caused a 7.16% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Dolphins game caused a 7.16% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Dolphins game caused a 7.16% change in win probability

16.01.2025 20:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 15.78% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 15.78% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 15.78% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 7.27% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 7.27% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 7.27% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 10.62% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 10.62% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Rams @ Lions game caused a 10.62% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Broncos @ Seahawks game caused a 12.57% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Broncos @ Seahawks game caused a 12.57% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Broncos @ Seahawks game caused a 12.57% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 10.22% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 10.22% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 10.22% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 7.68% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 7.68% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Giants game caused a 7.68% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.68% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.68% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.68% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.72% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.72% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 9.72% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 15.66% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 15.66% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Dolphins game caused a 15.66% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.12% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.12% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.12% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.94% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.94% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Texans @ Colts game caused a 7.94% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.15% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.15% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.15% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.04% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.04% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Cardinals @ Bills game caused a 7.04% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Steelers @ Falcons game caused a 7.13% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Steelers @ Falcons game caused a 7.13% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Steelers @ Falcons game caused a 7.13% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.57% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.57% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.57% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.8% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.8% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Packers @ Eagles game caused a 8.8% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Ravens @ Chiefs game caused a 9.05% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Ravens @ Chiefs game caused a 9.05% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Ravens @ Chiefs game caused a 9.05% change in win probability

13.01.2025 16:45 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Lions game caused a 7.95% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Lions game caused a 7.95% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Vikings @ Lions game caused a 7.95% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the 49ers @ Cardinals game caused a 10.7% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the 49ers @ Cardinals game caused a 10.7% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the 49ers @ Cardinals game caused a 10.7% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 13.08% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 13.08% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 13.08% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 8.17% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 8.17% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 8.17% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 16.58% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 16.58% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 16.58% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 7.31% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 7.31% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Saints @ Buccaneers game caused a 7.31% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.06% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.06% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.06% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:15 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.0% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.0% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Giants @ Eagles game caused a 10.0% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Patriots game caused a 7.38% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Patriots game caused a 7.38% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Bills @ Patriots game caused a 7.38% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability

06.01.2025 13:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability

The following play with a penalty in the Jaguars @ Colts game caused a 7.71% change in win probability

06.01.2025 08:15 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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