Niraj

With: @spintheory.bsky.social

we develop an empirical and bottom-up methodology to identify conflict types, knowledge of which can hurt predictability and cautions us about the limited utility of commonly available indicators. (6/6)

Specifying conflict type negatively impacts the predictability of conflict intensity such as fatalities, conflict duration, and other measures of conflict size. The competitive effect is a general consequence of weak statistical dependence. Hence, (5/6)

with little infrastructure and poor economic conditions. The three types stratify into a hierarchy of factors that highlights population, infrastructure, economics, and geography, respectively, as the most discriminative indicators. (4/6)

Local conflicts are in regions of median population density, are diverse socio-economically and geographically, and are often confined within country borders. Finally, sporadic and spillover conflicts remain small, often in low population density areas, (3/6)

we find three overarching conflict types representing "major unrest'' local conflict,'' and "sporadic and spillover events.'' Major unrest predominantly propagates around densely populated areas with well-developed infrastructure and flat, riparian geography. (2/6)

We combine fine-grained conflict data with detailed maps of climate, geography, infrastructure, economics, raw demographics, and demographic composition in Africa. With an unsupervised learning model, (1/6)

🚨New Research Alert🚨
Are commonly used indicators useful when predicting armed conflicts? Our latest study challenges conventional wisdom!
How many types of conflict exist according to data? And can we organize them into a meaningful hierarchical taxonomy?🦋💥

To find out:
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.00265

we develop an empirical and bottom-up methodology to identify conflict types, knowledge of which can hurt predictability and cautions us about the limited utility of commonly available indicators. (6/6)

Specifying conflict type negatively impacts the predictability of conflict intensity such as fatalities, conflict duration, and other measures of conflict size. The competitive effect is a general consequence of weak statistical dependence. Hence, (5/6)

with little infrastructure and poor economic conditions. The three types stratify into a hierarchy of factors that highlights population, infrastructure, economics, and geography, respectively, as the most discriminative indicators. (4/6)

Local conflicts are in regions of median population density, are diverse socio-economically and geographically, and are often confined within country borders. Finally, sporadic and spillover conflicts remain small, often in low population density areas, (3/6)

we find three overarching conflict types representing "major unrest'' local conflict,'' and "sporadic and spillover events.'' Major unrest predominantly propagates around densely populated areas with well-developed infrastructure and flat, riparian geography. (2/6)

We combine fine-grained conflict data with detailed maps of climate, geography, infrastructure, economics, raw demographics, and demographic composition in Africa. With an unsupervised learning model, (1/6)

What a whirlwind few months at CSH. But now we’re moved into our lovely new accommodations near Schloss Belvedere.

This week we have a student from our summer internship program Shlok Shah visiting us again from Princeton.

More science on armed conflict to come!

#CSH #DPG @kushwaha.bsky.social 2024 Spring Meeting