Heather Stewart

4h • "It's up to people what they get up to behind closed doors," local barber Ben Dicks said. A newly-opened adult members' club in a Leicestershire village has been temporarily closed down by council officials following complaints from residents - but not everyone is unhappy about it. Read more: https://bbc.in/46CDjtW Council temporarily shuts down adult members' club.

Laughing at someone’s name who is being quoted in a story about an “adult club” is neither big nor clever. Yet here we are.

I appreciate I make this joke a lot, but "the police have issued a solemn apology, and would like to reiterate their ambition to arrest more criminals than they employ."

Yeah ok mate

Democracy Volunteers ‘Family Voting’ and how to prevent it in Future Elections Democracy Volunteers has been observing elections in the UK for 10 years. We have seen ‘family voting’ across the UK and we think it is important to explain more about it and how it should be possi…

I've been asking Democracy Volunteers, the organisation who said they saw family voting in the Gorton and Denton by-election, if they would give details about evidence or methodology. They have now released an updated statement - which is still quite vague.

democracyvolunteers.org/family-votin...

Here’s why the Treasury is apparently sceptical about bringing forward the 3% of GDP defence pledge to 2030 - it obliterates spending increases on everything else (unless you’re raising more money to fund it…)

Striking chart from @theifs.bsky.social of the differential increase in the cost of hiring younger workers - with and without implementing the manifesto promise of equalising the NMW for 18-20 year olds:

Enjoying this live Treasury/IFS debate...

Good [scary] thread about why warnings about the econ impact of the Iran situation are not the same as dire predictions about tariffs/Brexit:

Agree with this: bits of the speech felt as though they'd been written pre Middle East war - the claim that people will be £1000 a year better off similarly seemed a hostage to fortune...

Private Eye cover with photos of Trump in his “war room” suggesting the Iranian offensive was to distract from the Epstein files

Ah, Private Eye Day…

Guys, the Italian unemployment rate has just fallen below the UK's.

This is a lovely timeline cleanse for a foggy morning 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Bloody hell

"This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with"

*Churchill bust*

"berk"

Trump on Iran:

Most of the people I had in mind for leadership are dead.

We have another group and they also may be dead.

chart showing Left panel: Impact of tax rises announced this parliamentRight panel: Tax as a proportion of GDP, by forecast date

Though the pain of tax rise *announcements* is in the past, over 3/5s of them won't materialise until later.

Taxes are set to rise£43 billion between now and 2029-30, bringing the tax burden above 38 per cent of GDP for the first time, in an election year to boot.

"Today’s OBR projections reveal two competing realities in government right now. The OBR and Treasury forecast an upturn in net migration, which makes their fiscal numbers add up – while the Home Office says it is determined to drive net migration down still further. They can’t have it both ways".

I would go farther than this - on current policy we (and the OBR) already *know* there will need to be a further significant downward revision (and hence also to growth/tax receipts in November.

This IPSO adjudication against the Telegraph is quite something

Confirms their story titled: ‘We earn £345k, but soaring private school fees mean we can’t go on five holidays’ was completely fabricated, with the family involved non-existent and stock pictures used

www.ipso.co.uk/rulings/0210...

OBR have revised down their forecast for net migration but this is *entirely* due to an upwards revision in the number of outwards migration by UK nationals. Still potential for another downwards shift later in the year, if the inwards migration number also drops.

📈🧵The Chancellor will likely use her spring statement shortly today to trumpet economic indicators pointing in right direction. But the public are far from feeling it. The rise in unemployment has had far greater cut through and negative reaction than falls in borrowing or inflation.

IMF: WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING DEVELOPMENTS IN MIDDLE EAST. SO FAR, WE HAVE OBSERVED DISRUPTIONS TO TRADE AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, SURGES IN ENERGY PRICES, AND VOLATILITY IN FINANCIAL MARKETS

UK rate pricing

the market is now only pricing in 1 rate cut this year from the BoE, and then not until H2. the hoped for March cut has evaporated from pricing:

also you can’t move for gorgeous foodstuffs in Venice and peanuts are not one of them?

Glad the government has listened and done this.

Reminded me of Dom Raab admitting he hadn't quite understood the importance of Dover-Calais for UK trade.

Unbeatable stuff

Hedge fund manager fails to quantify risk 😂

TRADERS NOW SEE ABOUT 8% CHANCE OF RATE CUT BY DECEMBER, FROM ABOUT 40% CHANCE ON FRIDAY

Chart showing the relationship between gasoline futures prices (advanced 2w) and national average gasoline prices

Attacking Iran looks like it will cost US consumers about 40 cents/gallon.