Florian Krampe

Today, #SIPRI releases a new research policy paper by
Katongo Seyuba and @floriankrampe.bsky.social exploring how businesses can foster climate resilience and #peacebuilding in fragile and conflict-affected situations.
Full paper 🔗 doi.org/10.55163/PDK...

#ClimateSecurity #ClimateChange

Most CEOs see fragile states as a risk to be avoided.

But could they be the single greatest untapped market for European business, especially in regards to climate-resilient investments?

Katongo Seyuba and I explore the question: www.sipri.org/publications... #ClimateSecurity

🇨🇿✨

Despite having a clear mandate to work at the intersection of #ClimateChange and security, the #OSCE's approach is still to reach its full potential. In this new Policy Brief, Emma Hakala & @floriankrampe.bsky.social give recommendations to strengthen the OSCE’s work:
🔗 doi.org/10.55163/MLS...

The OSCE has a long history of environment & security.

How to turn high-level commitments into on-the-ground action?

Our new @sipri.org Policy Brief w/
@ezhakala.bsky.social of @fiia.fi offers a roadmap.

📰⏩Read it here: www.sipri.org/publications...
#ClimateSecurity

Vital debate at the Bled Strategic Forum on the nexus of #water, peace & #security.

My key message: We must treat water as the political issue it is. While climate change raises the stakes, conflict is not destiny. Evidence-based, preventive action can build pathways to peace.

The Soča River, with its turquoise water carving its way, offers a striking paradox.

Breathtaking beauty set against a backdrop of historical trauma.
📰⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...

#ClimateSecurity #BSF2025 #WaterSecurity

🇸🇮

My message from the stage at #WWWeek:

1️⃣ Climate impacts are real security risks.
2️⃣ But conflict is NOT a foregone conclusion.
3️⃣ Governance, policy, and choice are the pathways to peace.

Grateful to everyone who engaged in this critical conversation. #ClimateSecurity

Some say now is not the time to bring up climate. I argue it's exactly the time.

A defense strategy that ignores the operational environment is not a strategy at all.

#ClimateSecurity

This isn't a problem for 2040. It's happening today. Melting permafrost is destabilizing military radar stations in the Arctic. Changing ocean salinity and temperature impact our ability to detect submarines. Our military infrastructure is vulnerable now.

Vi opruster til en verden uden klimaforandringer. Men det er jo ikke den, vi lever i Bag tidens største sikkerhedstrussel gemmer sig en endnu større, siger sikkerhedsekspert.

Europe is rushing to rearm. But what if it's preparing for yesterday's world?

In a great new piece by @Zetland, I argue that ignoring climate change undermines the very security we're trying to build. We don't have the luxury of sequencing threats. 🧵

www.zetland.dk/historie/sT9...

AI’s Hallucinations Are a Warning—About Ourselves Tobias Ide’s recent article on his experiments with Generative AI should send a chill down the spine of any researcher, including those who work on climate and environmental security. When Ide [...]

AI's confident lies about climate research reveal a dangerous gap—not just in tech, but in our understanding of how to use it. New piece by @floriankrampe.bsky.social of @sipri.org explores the human side of the AI crisis: www.newsecuritybeat.org/2025/08/ais-...

We're asking #LLMs, a novelist, to perform a financial audit and are shocked at the fiction it produces.

The ghost in the machine is our own flawed approach.

My take on #GenAI in climate security research @newsecuritybeat.bsky.social.

📰⏩ www.newsecuritybeat.org/2025/08/ais-... #ClimateSecurity

In post-conflict zones, water projects fail for one primary reason. | Florian Krampe In post-conflict zones, water projects fail for one primary reason. And it has nothing to do with engineering. For years, we have explored why well-intentioned efforts to manage water in fragile sta...

In post-conflict zones, water projects fail for one primary reason.

📰⏩ www.linkedin.com/posts/krampe...

Climate Change, Environmental Peacebuilding, and Preventing and Counte Climate change is transforming the peace and security landscape, creating new opportunities for violent extremism to emerge. Therefore, climate change must be

New external publication by SIPRI’s @floriankrampe.bsky.social and Cedric de Coning explores how #ClimateChange and violent extremism are interconnected, and how environmental peacebuilding can help address both 🔗 bit.ly/3J8IdWz

#ClimateSecurity #Peacebuilding

Is Europe's massive defence spending surge a strategic gamble?

In the rush to counter conventional threats, we are building a 21st-century military on quicksand.

That quicksand is climate change: www.weforum.org/stories/2025...
#ClimateSecurity

Europe's defence push can't ignore dual-use climate-defence tech Europe’s defence is vulnerable to climate change. Smarter spending must align military readiness with climate-responsive dual-use technologies.

Here @floriankrampe.bsky.social argues that more of the EU's planned increase in military spending be targeted towards dual use tech responsive to the #ClimateCrisis and #decarbonisation. www.weforum.org/stories/2025... 1/3

The air was still with the sounds of the city...

...carved into the stone monument a solemn vow:

"Let all the souls here rest in peace for we shall not repeat the evil."

80 years on, a day for reflection and peace.

#Hiroshima80

Europe's defence push can't ignore dual-use climate-defence tech Europe’s defence is vulnerable to climate change. Smarter spending must align military readiness with climate-responsive dual-use technologies.

Excellent read! Check it!

www.weforum.org/stories/2025...

Europe🇪🇺 is building a 21st-century military on quicksand.

The massive investment in conventional defence ignores the #climate crisis already degrading forces & threatening bases—a strategic blunder.

📰My full take for the @wef ⏩ www.weforum.org/stories/2025... #ClimateSecurity

Climate change also threatens Europe’s military capability, and a failure to address this will erode our security. Here my esteemed colleague @floriankrampe.bsky.social explains why and how.

Europe's defence push can't ignore dual-use climate-defence tech Europe’s defence is vulnerable to climate change. Smarter spending must align military readiness with climate-responsive dual-use technologies.

Europe’s defence build-up is a climate gamble – here’s how it can course correct

📰⏩ weforum.org/stories/2025... #ClimateSecurity

Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change Abstract. Following empirical research on the dynamics of conflict and cooperation under climate change, conditions, pathways, and societal responses in the climate–security nexus are analysed. Comple...

Is the path from climate stress to conflict a gradual slope, or is it a sudden cliff?

🆕📰New paper in Earth Systems Dynamics ⏩ esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/... #ClimateSecurity

Florian serves up the main course. If you're still hungry, here's dessert:

climateandsecurity.org/2022/01/brie...

This means investing in local institutions and empowering communities to cooperatively manage shared resources.

I added the link to the open-access chapter in the first comment.

What are the biggest barriers you see to implementing these integrated approaches on the ground?

#ClimateSecurity

Security-led responses alone are insufficient.

The most effective path forward lies in strengthening community resilience through what we call "environmental peacebuilding." This approach tackles the root causes of vulnerability that extremists exploit.

For instance, groups like Al-Shabaab have strategically used droughts and floods to position themselves as alternative relief providers, gaining legitimacy and control.

They also exploit extreme weather for tactical advantage, moving forces when government security is hampered.

Climate change erodes livelihoods and deepens vulnerabilities. In places like Mali and Somalia, the resulting resource scarcity and weak governance create fertile ground for recruitment.

Extremist groups don't just offer income; they offer an alternative source of governance, relief, and justice.

Is there a direct line between #climatechange and violent extremism?

The answer is far more complex than a simple 'yes' or 'no'.

In our new book chapter, we argue climate change acts as a potent risk multiplier, creating grievances that extremist groups are dangerously adept at exploiting. 🧵👇