Great example of a mid-troposphere frontal wave instability
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Ensemble mean column added :)
Good idea, @windjunky.bsky.social. I will add that
Our weekly @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social weather discussion for the week post TC-Alfred is now available.
www.weathermanbarnes.com/blog/2025/20...
Do the BoM produce storm surge forecasts for that part of the world? Those numbers would be interesting and incredibly important for those people who live there....
Spectacular RADAR imagery of the eye of TC Zelia as it makes its way onshore to the east of Port Hedland, Western Australia.
Credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology
A potentially extreme heatwave on cards for Victoria to start off Feruary with some simuations indicating stretches of 40C for Melbourne. ECMWF eIFS Maximum Temperature forecasts for all 50 membes for Melbourne below.
Another bout of explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic with "Storm Eowyn" bearing down on the UK, bringing with it strong winds and heavy rainfall. Here is ECMWF's few of the system.
Deep westeries and rainy. A hard, technical criteria is maybe not always the best....
Work within the @21stcenturyweather.bsky.social will look at many of these topics including tropical-extratropical transitions, Tropical Cyclone impacts on heatwaves, diabatic influences on weather and weather systems and much more!
The remnants of TC Sean that have transitioned into the extratropics, presumably bring with it additional moisture and diabatic heating into the mid-latitude waveguide. This process promotes anticyclogenesis in upper troposphere which in turn promotes adiabatic descent and heat into VIC next week
TC Sean will also play a hand in hot weather over the SE early next week, with temperatures expected to reach into the 40s in Victoria on Monday. Below is the ECMWF eIFS forecast for various parts of the state.
Secondly and I think possibly most importantly, the outflow from TC Sean promotes ridging in the upper troposphere, pushing back the jet stream to the south of WA, similar to the effect studied by @tessjparker.bsky.social in her work on SE Aus heatwaves (doi.org/10.1002/2013...)
First, TC Sean tightens up the pressure gradient, promoting and strengthening easterlies and adiabatic descent towards the coast. Some of the below trajectories into Perth highlight this effect.
Southern WA experienced have experienced extremely hot temperatures, with Geraldton nearing the 50C mark. TC Sean has a part to play in this.
Tropical vortices play a larger role in the weather over the Australian continent than strong wind and heavy rain. Despite only a glancing impact on rainfall over northern Western Australia, Tropical Cyclone Sean has and will have an impact on many region this week, but not in the way you may expect
Would love to know how on earth they get risk at the house level. Disingenuous and dishonest in my view.
Weak tropical vortices can pack a punch!! 100s of mm of rain falling over the QLD coast today. Rain will continue tomorrow and cease by Sunday as the vortex is moved offshore.
The fires in The Grampians in western Vic are making themselves known over Melbourne.
Ah cool. I like the comparing to neighbours! Will definitely check Tempest out. Thanks @ailiegallant.bsky.social!
The accuracy of the forecasts for the extreme heat currently hitting much of Australia has been exceptional. In some areas, the forecast bounced around, but for good reason that @weathermanbarnes.bsky.social and I explained for The Conversation. The reality is weather forecasts are better than ever!
Weather nerds: We did a thing and bought a house and now we OBVIOUSLY need to install a weather station. Any recommendations for a good home system? There are so many out there now!
The impact of a summertime front - a 20-degree Celsius drop in just a matter of hours here in Melbourne!
This also explains the "bouncing" of most deterministic models between the mid-30s and low-40s for the over the last few days....
A beautiful example of anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking that will bring heat to the southeast tomorrow. The cyclonic feature (cut-off) over QLD also brought heavy rainfall that region yesterday.
We are certainly on track for a December Melbourne 40C day
I agree @ozhillbilly.bsky.social. It depends on timing of the front. If earlier it will kill the 40 max. Agree it will be hot but how hot is the question and that is still an uncertainty. Frontal timing 7 days in advance is a tricky business.
Hot weather is possible for early next week over SE Australia. Still uncertainty however with only a few members of the ECMWF ensemble (including the deterministic forecast) reaching into the 40s for Melbourne. Expecting a lot of bouncing around for the next few days. A forecast to watch!
Fizzled unfortunately (or fortunately). We have this depression off the coast which should provide some good rain for the northwest and small (and seemingly diminishing) chances of another depression/TC next week.
